Related papers: Measuring growth and convergence at the mesoscale
As countries develop, the relative importance of agriculture declines and economic activity becomes spatially concentrated. We develop a model integrating structural change and regional disparities to jointly capture these phenomena. A key…
We have modeled the employment/population ratio in the largest developed countries. Our results show that the evolution of the employment rate since 1970 can be predicted with a high accuracy by a linear dependence on the logarithm of real…
The so-called great divergence in the income per capita is described in the Unified Growth Theory as the mind-boggling and unresolved mystery about the growth process. This mystery has now been solved: the great divergence never happened.…
GDP/capita correlations are investigated in various time windows (TW), for the time interval 1990-2005. The target group of countries is the set of 25 EU members, 15 till 2004 plus the 10 countries which joined EU later on. The TW-means of…
The divergence in globalization strategies between the US (retrenchment and polarization) and China (expansion) presents a puzzle that traditional distributional theories fail to fully explain. This paper offers a novel framework by…
Urban space is highly heterogeneous, with population and human activities concentrating in localized centers. However, the global organization of such intra-urban centers remains poorly understood due to the lack of consistent, comparable…
Urban inequality is a major challenge for cities in the 21st century. This inequality is reflected in the spatial income structure of cities which evolves in time through various processes. Gentrification is a well-known illustration of…
Recent studies have found evidence of a negative association between economic complexity and inequality at the country level. Moreover, evidence suggests that sophisticated economies tend to outsource products that are less desirable (e.g.…
Decisions regarding housing, transportation, and resource allocation would all benefit from accurate small-area population forecasts. While various tried-and-tested forecast methods exist at regional scales, developing an accurate…
We investigate the emergence of synchronization in a network of coupled chaotic macroeconomic systems. Each node represents an economy characterized by three key variables savings, gross domestic product (GDP), and foreign capital inflows.…
In 2012 the world's population exceeded 7 billion, and since 2008 the number of individuals living in urban areas has surpassed that of rural areas. This is the result of an overall increase of life expectancy in many countries that has…
In this letter we present a stochastic dynamic model which can explain economic cycles. We show that the macroscopic description yields a complex dynamical landscape consisting of multiple stable fixed points, each corresponding to a split…
The urban transition, the increased ratio of urban to rural population globally and within countries, is a hallmark of the 21st century. Our analysis of publicly available data from the World Bank spanning several decades for ~195 countries…
Urban population grows constantly. By 2050 two thirds of the world population will reside in urban areas. This growth is faster and more complex than the ability of cities to measure and plan for their sustainability. To understand what…
Various papers demonstrate the importance of inequality, poverty and the size of the middle class for economic growth. When explaining why these measures of the income distribution are added to the growth regression, it is often mentioned…
We study a stochastic model of urban growth generating spatial distributions of population densities at an intermediate mesoscopic scale. The model is based on the antagonist interplay between the two opposite abstract processes of…
Structural transformation, the shift from agrarian economies to more diversified industrial and service-based systems, is a key driver of economic development. However, in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), data scarcity and…
Non-communicable diseases like diabetes, obesity and certain forms of cancer have been increasing in many countries at alarming levels. A difficulty in the conception of policies to reverse these trends is the identification of the drivers…
Urban areas serve as melting pots of people with diverse socioeconomic backgrounds, who may not only be segregated but have characteristic mobility patterns in the city. While mobility is driven by individual needs and preferences, the…
Urban populations exhibit fractal organization and systematic scaling regularities, yet the scaling exponents reported across cities vary substantially, challenging existing theory. Using 100~m gridded population maps for 477 urban areas…