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ML models have errors when used for predictions. The errors are unknown but can be quantified by model uncertainty. When multiple ML models are trained using the same training points, their model uncertainties may be statistically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-23 Xiaoping Du

Strategic classification studies learning in settings where self-interested users can strategically modify their features to obtain favorable predictive outcomes. A key working assumption, however, is that "favorable" always means…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Sagi Levanon , Nir Rosenfeld

We propose a tractable unified framework to study the evolution and interaction of model-misspecification concerns and complexity aversion in repeated decision problems. This aims to capture environments where decision makers worry that…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-02-18 Drew Fudenberg , Florian Mudekereza

The shortcomings of maximum likelihood estimation in the context of model-based reinforcement learning have been highlighted by an increasing number of papers. When the model class is misspecified or has a limited representational capacity,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-08 Evgenii Nikishin , Romina Abachi , Rishabh Agarwal , Pierre-Luc Bacon

We study Markov decision problems where the agent does not know the transition probability function mapping current states and actions to future states. The agent has a prior belief over a set of possible transition functions and updates…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2018-01-04 Ignacio Esponda , Demian Pouzo

We study a linear statistical model where outcomes depend on regressors with fixed population coefficients and observation-specific latent coefficients, along with measurement errors. A decision-maker estimates population coefficients and…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-04-15 Junnan He , Lin Hu , Matthew Kovach , Anqi Li

We consider a stochastic convex optimization problem that requires minimizing a sum of misspecified agentspecific expectation-valued convex functions over the intersection of a collection of agent-specific convex sets. This misspecification…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-09-22 Aswin Kannan , Angelia Nedich , Uday V. Shanbhag

The application of Reinforcement Learning (RL) to economic modeling reveals a fundamental conflict between the assumptions of equilibrium theory and the emergent behavior of learning agents. While canonical economic models assume atomistic…

General Economics · Economics 2025-10-21 Ruxin Chen , Zeqiang Zhang

When an agent cannot represent a perfectly accurate model of its environment's dynamics, model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) can fail catastrophically. Planning involves composing the predictions of the model; when flawed predictions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-07-28 Erik Talvitie

In model-based reinforcement learning, planning with an imperfect model of the environment has the potential to harm learning progress. But even when a model is imperfect, it may still contain information that is useful for planning. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-09 Zaheer Abbas , Samuel Sokota , Erin J. Talvitie , Martha White

Learning under one-sided feedback (i.e., where we only observe the labels for examples we predicted positively on) is a fundamental problem in machine learning -- applications include lending and recommendation systems. Despite this, there…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-14 Heinrich Jiang , Qijia Jiang , Aldo Pacchiano

Model-based multi-agent control requires agents to possess a model of the behavior of others to make strategic decisions. Solution concepts from game theory are often used to model the emergent collective behavior of self-interested agents…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-05 Ada Yildirim , Bryce L. Ferguson

Model-based reinforcement learning has the potential to be more sample efficient than model-free approaches. However, existing model-based methods are vulnerable to model bias, which leads to poor generalization and asymptotic performance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-27 Tung-Long Vuong , Kenneth Tran

The key challenge in multiagent learning is learning a best response to the behaviour of other agents, which may be non-stationary: if the other agents adapt their strategy as well, the learning target moves. Disparate streams of research…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2019-03-13 Pablo Hernandez-Leal , Michael Kaisers , Tim Baarslag , Enrique Munoz de Cote

A long-standing challenge in Reinforcement Learning is enabling agents to learn a model of their environment which can be transferred to solve other problems in a world with the same underlying rules. One reason this is difficult is the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-16 Kai Olav Ellefsen , Jim Torresen

Decisions based partly or solely on predictions from probabilistic models may be sensitive to model misspecification. Statisticians are taught from an early stage that "all models are wrong", but little formal guidance exists on how to…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-09 James Watson , Chris Holmes

Identifying the causes of a model's unfairness is an important yet relatively unexplored task. We look into this problem through the lens of training data - the major source of unfairness. We ask the following questions: How would the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-20 Yuanshun Yao , Yang Liu

When large language models (LLMs) are asked to perform certain tasks, how can we be sure that their learned representations align with reality? We propose a domain-agnostic framework for systematically evaluating distribution shifts in LLMs…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-01 Tanush Chopra , Michael Li , Jacob Haimes

Machine learning is a field which studies how machines can alter and adapt their behavior, improving their actions according to the information they are given. This field is subdivided into multiple areas, among which the best known are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-06 David Charte , Francisco Charte , Salvador García , Francisco Herrera

We use decision theory to confront uncertainty that is sufficiently broad to incorporate "models as approximations." We presume the existence of a featured collection of what we call "structured models" that have explicit substantive…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2022-08-22 Simone Cerreia-Vioglio , Lars Peter Hansen , Fabio Maccheroni , Massimo Marinacci