Misspecified Model Estimation and Its Impact on Predictions
Abstract
We study a linear statistical model where outcomes depend on regressors with fixed population coefficients and observation-specific latent coefficients, along with measurement errors. A decision-maker estimates population coefficients and uses the estimates to predict the latent coefficients for a given observation. We analyze how misspecification of some population coefficients distorts predictions, investigating comparative statics with respect to: (1) residual information in regressors associated with misspecified coefficients after projecting out those associated with free coefficients, (2) alignment between misspecification vector and latent-to-coefficient mapping. Applications include employee rating with unconscious bias and LLM-mediated consumer research.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2309.08740,
title = {Misspecified Model Estimation and Its Impact on Predictions},
author = {Junnan He and Lin Hu and Matthew Kovach and Anqi Li},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2309.08740},
year = {2026}
}