English
Related papers

Related papers: Crypto Pricing with Hidden Factors

200 papers

Deep learning searches for nonlinear factors for predicting asset returns. Predictability is achieved via multiple layers of composite factors as opposed to additive ones. Viewed in this way, asset pricing studies can be revisited using…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-27 Guanhao Feng , Jingyu He , Nicholas G. Polson

Using the Crypto Fear & Greed Index and Bitcoin daily data, we document that sentiment extremity predicts excess uncertainty beyond realized volatility. Extreme fear and extreme greed regimes exhibit significantly higher spreads than…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-02-17 Murad Farzulla

Cryptocurrency trading has attracted tremendous attention from both retail and institutional investors. However, most traders fail to scale their assets under management due to fragile strategies that collapse during adverse markets. The…

Operating Systems · Computer Science 2025-12-04 Thanh Nguyen

Cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin (BTC), which comprise a new digital asset class, have drawn extraordinary worldwide attention. The characteristics of the cryptocurrency/BTC include a high level of speculation, extreme volatility and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-09-24 Ai Jun Hou , Weining Wang , Cathy Y. H. Chen , Wolfgang Karl Härdle

Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) prescribes how to maximise the return of an asset portfolio for a given level of risk. The optimal trade-off between return and variance defines the efficient frontier. Whether actual cryptoasset portfolios…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Ivan Vynyavskyy , Stefan Kitzler , Bernhard Haslhofer , Aviv Yaish

The decisions traders make to buy or sell an asset depend on various analyses, with expertise required to identify patterns that can be exploited for profit. In this paper we identify novel features extracted from emergent and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-09 Gabriel Rodrigues Palma , Mariusz Skoczeń , Phil Maguire

This paper investigates the time-varying risk-premium relation of the Chinese stock markets within the framework of cross-sectional momentum and contrarian effects by adopting the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the French-Fama three factor…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-07-19 H. -L. Shi , W. -X. Zhou

In this paper, we consider a variety of multi-state Hidden Markov models for predicting and explaining the Bitcoin, Ether and Ripple returns in the presence of state (regime) dynamics. In addition, we examine the effects of several…

Applications · Statistics 2020-12-08 Constandina Koki , Stefanos Leonardos , Georgios Piliouras

We analyze the time series of four major cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple) before the digital market crash at the end of 2017 - beginning 2018. We introduce a methodology that combines topological data analysis with…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-09-05 Marian Gidea , Daniel Goldsmith , Yuri Katz , Pablo Roldan , Yonah Shmalo

We propose a combined model, which integrates the latent factor model and the logistic regression model, for the citation network. It is noticed that neither a latent factor model nor a logistic regression model alone is sufficient to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-12-03 Namjoon Suh , Xiaoming Huo , Eric Heim , Lee Seversky

We study whether liquidity and volatility proxies of a core set of cryptoassets generate spillovers that forecast market-wide risk. Our empirical framework integrates three statistical layers: (A) interactions between core liquidity and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-24 Yimeng Qiu , Feihuang Fang

Cryptocoins (i.e., Bitcoin, Ether, Litecoin) are tradable digital assets. Ownerships of cryptocoins are registered on distributed ledgers (i.e., blockchains). Secure encryption techniques guarantee the security of the transactions…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-09-06 Pasquale De Rosa , Pascal Felber , Valerio Schiavoni

In the trading process, financial signals often imply the time to buy and sell assets to generate excess returns compared to a benchmark (e.g., an index). Alpha is the portion of an asset's return that is not explained by exposure to this…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-10-25 Yining Wang , Jinman Zhao , Yuri Lawryshyn

The rapid growth of crypto markets has opened new opportunities for investors, but at the same time exposed them to high volatility. To address the challenge of managing dynamic portfolios in such an environment, this paper presents a…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-29 Antonino Castelli , Paolo Giudici , Alessandro Piergallini

Bitcoin is firmly becoming a mainstream asset in our global society. Its highly volatile nature has traders and speculators flooding into the market to take advantage of its significant price swings in the hope of making money. This work…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-29 Nathan Crone , Eoin Brophy , Tomas Ward

Fundamental variables in financial market are not only price and return but a very important role is also played by trading volumes. Here we propose a new multivariate model that takes into account price returns, logarithmic variation of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-07-14 Guglielmo D'Amico , Filippo Petroni

Cryptocurrency markets have attracted many interest for global investors because of their novelty, wide online availability, increasing capitalization and potential profits. In the econophysics tradition we show that many of the most…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-11-23 Noe Rodriguez-Rodriguez , Octavio Miramontes

We present extensive evidence that ``risk premium'' is strongly correlated with tail-risk skewness but very little with volatility. We introduce a new, intuitive definition of skewness and elicit an approximately linear relation between the…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-11-02 Y. Lempérière , C. Deremble , T. T. Nguyen , P. Seager , M. Potters , J. P. Bouchaud

The rapid development of information technology, especially the Internet, has facilitated users with a quick and easy way to seek information. With these convenience offered by internet services, many individuals who initially invested in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-07 Novan Fauzi Al Giffary , Feri Sulianta

We present positive evidence of price stability of cryptocurrencies as a medium of exchange. For the sample years from 2016 to 2020, the prices of major cryptocurrencies are found to be stable, relative to major financial assets.…

General Economics · Economics 2021-12-14 Tatsuru Kikuchi , Toranosuke Onishi , Kenichi Ueda