Related papers: The Bayesian Intransitive Bradley-Terry Model via …
Big Data often presents as massive non-probability samples. Not only is the selection mechanism often unknown, but larger data volume amplifies the relative contribution of selection bias to total error. Existing bias adjustment approaches…
Ranking or assessing centrality in multivariate and non-Euclidean data is difficult because there is no canonical order and many depth notions become computationally fragile in high-dimensional or structured settings. We introduce a…
Bayesian doubly robust (DR) causal inference faces a fundamental dilemma: joint modeling of outcome and propensity score suffers from the feedback problem where outcome information contaminates propensity score estimation, while two-step…
Pairwise preference learning is central to machine learning, with recent applications in aligning language models with human preferences. A typical dataset consists of triplets $(x, y^+, y^-)$, where response $y^+$ is preferred over…
Transfer effects manifest themselves both during training using a fixed data set and in inductive inference using accumulating data. We hypothesize that perturbing the data set by including more samples, instead of perturbing the model by…
Simulator-based models are models for which the likelihood is intractable but simulation of synthetic data is possible. They are often used to describe complex real-world phenomena, and as such can often be misspecified in practice.…
We propose a Bayesian propensity score-augmented latent factor model for causal inference with time-series cross-sectional data. The framework explicitly models the treatment assignment mechanism by incorporating latent factor loadings,…
Comparing competing mathematical models of complex natural processes is a shared goal among many branches of science. The Bayesian probabilistic framework offers a principled way to perform model comparison and extract useful metrics for…
Influenced mixed moving average fields are a versatile modeling class for spatio-temporal data. However, their predictive distribution is not generally known. Under this modeling assumption, we define a novel spatio-temporal embedding and a…
In a wide class of paired comparisons, especially in the sports games, in which all subjects are divided into several groups, the intragroup comparisons are dense and the intergroup comparisons are sparse. Typical examples include the NFL…
We revisit the problem of inferring the overall ranking among entities in the framework of Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model, based on available empirical data on pairwise preferences. By a simple transformation, we can cast the problem as…
Modern machine learning applications should be able to address the intrinsic challenges arising over inference on massive real-world datasets, including scalability and robustness to outliers. Despite the multiple benefits of Bayesian…
Accurate comparisons between theoretical models and experimental data are critical for scientific progress. However, inferred physical model parameters can vary significantly with the chosen physics model, highlighting the importance of…
We compare various extensions of the Bradley-Terry model and a hierarchical Poisson log-linear model in terms of their performance in predicting the outcome of soccer matches (win, draw, or loss). The parameters of the Bradley-Terry…
Causal inference on populations embedded in social networks poses technical challenges, since the typical no interference assumption frequently does not hold. Existing methods developed in the context of network interference rely upon the…
Training data attribution (TDA) techniques find influential training data for the model's prediction on the test data of interest. They approximate the impact of down- or up-weighting a particular training sample. While conceptually useful,…
Asynchronous event sequence clustering aims to group similar event sequences in an unsupervised manner. Mixture models of temporal point processes have been proposed to solve this problem, but they often suffer from overfitting, leading to…
A test is adaptive when its sequence and number of questions is dynamically tuned on the basis of the estimated skills of the taker. Graphical models, such as Bayesian networks, are used for adaptive tests as they allow to model the…
Existing models to extract temporal relations between events lack a principled method to incorporate external knowledge. In this study, we introduce Bayesian-Trans, a Bayesian learning-based method that models the temporal relation…
Like mean, quantile and variance, mode is also an important measure of central tendency and data summary. Many practical questions often focus on "Which element (gene or file or signal) occurs most often or is the most typical among all…