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Prediction and modelling of competitive sports outcomes has received much recent attention, especially from the Bayesian statistics and machine learning communities. In the real world setting of outcome prediction, the seminal \'{E}l\H{o}…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-01-30 Franz J. Király , Zhaozhi Qian

The Bradley-Terry model assigns probabilities for the outcome of paired comparison experiments based on strength parameters associated with the objects being compared. We consider different proposed choices of prior parameter distributions…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-12-15 John T. Whelan

The Bradley-Terry model is a popular approach to describe probabilities of the possible outcomes when elements of a set are repeatedly compared with one another in pairs. It has found many applications including animal behaviour, chess…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-17 Francois Caron , Arnaud Doucet

Many applications, e.g. in content recommendation, sports, or recruitment, leverage the comparisons of alternatives to score those alternatives. The classical Bradley-Terry model and its variants have been widely used to do so. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-23 Julien Fageot , Sadegh Farhadkhani , Lê Nguyên Hoang , Oscar Villemaud

The seminal Bradley-Terry model exhibits transitivity, i.e., the property that the probabilities of player A beating B and B beating C give the probability of A beating C, with these probabilities determined by a skill parameter for each…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-10 Jess Spearing , Jonathan Tawn , David Irons , Tim Paulden

This contribution introduces a novel statistical learning methodology based on the Bradley-Terry method for pairwise comparisons, where the novelty arises from the method's capacity to estimate the worth of objects for a primary attribute…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-26 Sjoerd Hermes , Joost van Heerwaarden , Pariya Behrouzi

We consider the problem of aggregating pairwise comparisons to obtain a consensus ranking order over a collection of objects. We use the popular Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model which allows us to probabilistically describe pairwise…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2019-01-30 Mine Alsan , Ranjitha Prasad , Vincent Y. F. Tan

This paper deals with the estimation of the unknown distribution of hidden random variables from the observation of pairwise comparisons between these variables. This problem is inspired by recent developments on Bradley-Terry models in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-27 Sylvain Le Corff , Matthieu Lerasle , Elodie Vernet

This paper introduces the Bradley-Terry Regression Trunk model, a novel probabilistic approach for the analysis of preference data expressed through paired comparison rankings. In some cases, it may be reasonable to assume that the…

Evaluating generative models is challenging because standard metrics often fail to reflect human preferences. Human evaluations are more reliable but costly and noisy, as participants vary in expertise, attention, and diligence. Pairwise…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Till Aczel , Lucas Theis , Roger Wattenhofer

A common problem faced in statistical inference is drawing conclusions from paired comparisons, in which two objects compete and one is declared the victor. A probabilistic approach to such a problem is the Bradley-Terry model, first…

Applications · Statistics 2017-12-19 Gabriel C. Phelan , John T. Whelan

Several methods of preference modeling, ranking, voting and multi-criteria decision making include pairwise comparisons. It is usually simpler to compare two objects at a time, furthermore, some relations (e.g., the outcome of sports…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-04 László Gyarmati , Éva Orbán-Mihálykó , Csaba Mihálykó , Sándor Bozóki , Zsombor Szádoczki

PageRank and the Bradley-Terry model are competing approaches to ranking entities such as teams in sports tournaments or journals in citation networks. The Bradley-Terry model is a classical statistical method for ranking based on paired…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-13 David Antony Selby

A principled approach to cyclicality and intransitivity in paired comparison data is developed. The proposed methodology enables more precise estimation of the underlying preference profile and facilitates the identification of all cyclic…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-08 Rahul Singh , Ori Davidov

Motivated by the home-field advantage in sports, we propose a generalized Bradley--Terry model that incorporates covariate information for paired comparisons. It has an $n$-dimensional merit parameter $\bs{\beta}$ and a fixed-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-31 Ting Yan

We propose a general framework for statistical inference on the overall strengths of players in pairwise comparisons, allowing for potential shifts in the covariate distribution. These covariates capture important contextual information…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-10 Xiudi Li , Sijia Li

The Bradley-Terry model has previously been used in both Bayesian and frequentist interpretations to evaluate the strengths of sports teams based on win-loss game results. It has also been extended to handle additional possible results such…

Applications · Statistics 2023-01-10 John T. Whelan , Jacob E. Klein

Most statistical models for pairwise comparisons, including the Bradley-Terry (BT) and Thurstone models and many extensions, make a relatively strong assumption of stochastic transitivity. This assumption imposes the existence of an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-12 Sze Ming Lee , Yunxiao Chen

We propose a novel combinatorial inference framework to conduct general uncertainty quantification in ranking problems. We consider the widely adopted Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model, where each item is assigned a positive preference score…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-04 Yue Liu , Ethan X. Fang , Junwei Lu

Traditional statistical inference on ordinal comparison data results in an overall ranking of objects, e.g., from best to worst, with each object having a unique rank. However, ranks of some objects may not be statistically distinguishable.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-27 Michael Pearce , Elena A. Erosheva
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