Related papers: Mean Square Errors of factors extracted using prin…
In this paper, we propose a computationally simple estimator of the asymptotic covariance matrix of the Principal Components (PC) factors valid in the presence of cross-correlated idiosyncratic components. The proposed estimator of the…
We propose analytical mean square error (MSE) expressions for the Kalman filter (KF) and the Kalman smoother (KS) for benchmark studies, where the true system dynamics are unknown or unavailable to the estimator. In such cases, as in…
The paper proposes a new recursive filter for non-linear systems that inherently computes a valid bound on the mean square estimation error. The proposed filter, bound based extended Kalman, (BEKF) is in the form of an extended Kalman…
The research question we answer in this paper is whether the asymptotic distribution derived by Bai (2003) for Principal Components (PC) factors in dynamic factor models (DFMs) can approximate the empirical distribution of the sequential…
Traditional Kalman filter (KF) is derived under the well-known minimum mean square error (MMSE) criterion, which is optimal under Gaussian assumption. However, when the signals are non-Gaussian, especially when the system is disturbed by…
To date most linear and nonlinear Kalman filters (KFs) have been developed under the Gaussian assumption and the well-known minimum mean square error (MMSE) criterion. In order to improve the robustness with respect to impulsive (or…
We study the excess mean square error (EMSE) above the minimum mean square error (MMSE) in large linear systems where the posterior mean estimator (PME) is evaluated with a postulated prior that differs from the true prior of the input…
Kalman Filter (KF) is an optimal linear state prediction algorithm, with applications in fields as diverse as engineering, economics, robotics, and space exploration. Here, we develop an extension of the KF, called a Pathspace Kalman Filter…
We study estimation of large Dynamic Factor models implemented through the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm, jointly with the Kalman smoother. We prove that as both the cross-sectional dimension, $n$, and the sample size, $T$,…
The growing volume of data usually creates an interesting challenge for the need of data analysis tools that discover regularities in these data. Data mining has emerged as disciplines that contribute tools for data analysis, discovery of…
This paper considers estimation of large dynamic factor models with common and idiosyncratic trends by means of the Expectation Maximization algorithm, implemented jointly with the Kalman smoother. We show that, as the cross-sectional…
This paper considers an approximate dynamic matrix factor model that accounts for the time series nature of the data by explicitly modelling the time evolution of the factors. We study estimation of the model parameters based on the…
Factor analysis (FA) and principal component analysis (PCA) are popular statistical methods for summarizing and explaining the variability in multivariate datasets. By default, FA and PCA assume the number of components or factors to be…
Empirical Bayes estimators are based on minimizing the average risk with the hyper-parameters in the weighting function being estimated from observed data. The performance of an empirical Bayes estimator is typically evaluated by its mean…
In this paper, we consider the task of designing a Kalman Filter (KF) for an unknown and partially observed autonomous linear time invariant system driven by process and sensor noise. To do so, we propose studying the following two step…
We combine high-dimensional factor models with fractional integration methods and derive models where nonstationary, potentially cointegrated data of different persistence is modelled as a function of common fractionally integrated factors.…
We review Quasi Maximum Likelihood estimation of factor models for high-dimensional panels of time series. We consider two cases: (1) estimation when no dynamic model for the factors is specified (Bai and Li, 2012, 2016); (2) estimation…
It is known that the common factors in a large panel of data can be consistently estimated by the method of principal components, and principal components can be constructed by iterative least squares regressions. Replacing least squares…
Switching Kalman Filters (SKF) are well known for their ability to solve the piecewise linear dynamic system estimation problem using the standard Kalman Filter (KF). Practical SKFs are heuristic, approximate filters that are not guaranteed…
In this article, we study large-dimensional matrix factor models and estimate the factor loading matrices and factor score matrix by minimizing square loss function. Interestingly, the resultant estimators coincide with the Projected…