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Despite of its importance for safe machine learning, uncertainty quantification for neural networks is far from being solved. State-of-the-art approaches to estimate neural uncertainties are often hybrid, combining parametric models with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-03 Joachim Sicking , Maram Akila , Maximilian Pintz , Tim Wirtz , Asja Fischer , Stefan Wrobel

Distribution regression seeks to estimate the conditional distribution of a multivariate response given a continuous covariate. This approach offers a more complete characterization of dependence than traditional regression methods.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-10 Rong Tang , Yun Yang

This article introduces an iterative distributed computing estimator for the multinomial logistic regression model with large choice sets. Compared to the maximum likelihood estimator, the proposed iterative distributed estimator achieves…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-03 Yanqin Fan , Yigit Okar , Xuetao Shi

Optimal transport induces the Earth Mover's (Wasserstein) distance between probability distributions, a geometric divergence that is relevant to a wide range of problems. Over the last decade, two relaxations of optimal transport have been…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-01-18 Thibault Séjourné , Jean Feydy , François-Xavier Vialard , Alain Trouvé , Gabriel Peyré

Sampling from high-dimensional distributions is a fundamental problem in statistical research and practice. However, great challenges emerge when the target density function is unnormalized and contains isolated modes. We tackle this…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-11 Yixuan Qiu , Xiao Wang

A data-driven formulation of the optimal transport problem is presented and solved using adaptively refined meshes to decompose the problem into a sequence of finite linear programming problems. Both the marginal distributions and their…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-10-11 Weikun Chen , Esteban G. Tabak

Distributionally robust supervised learning (DRSL) is emerging as a key paradigm for building reliable machine learning systems for real-world applications -- reflecting the need for classifiers and predictive models that are robust to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-26 Yaodong Yu , Tianyi Lin , Eric Mazumdar , Michael I. Jordan

This paper proposes a data-driven distributionally robust shortest path (DRSP) model where the distribution of the travel time in the transportation network can only be partially observed through a finite number of samples. Specifically, we…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-11-19 Zhuolin Wang , Keyou You , Shiji Song , Yuli Zhang

Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization (WDRO) optimizes against worst-case distributional shifts within a specified uncertainty set, leading to enhanced generalization on unseen adversarial examples, compared to standard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-07 Shuang Liu , Yihan Wang , Yifan Zhu , Yibo Miao , Xiao-Shan Gao

Modeling observations as random distributions embedded within Wasserstein spaces is becoming increasingly popular across scientific fields, as it captures the variability and geometric structure of the data more effectively. However, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-08 François Bachoc , Alberto González-Sanz , Jean-Michel Loubes , Yisha Yao

We introduce a novel and scalable Bayesian framework for multivariate-density-density regression (DDR), designed to model relationships between multivariate distributions. Our approach addresses the critical issue of distributions residing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-24 Khai Nguyen , Yang Ni , Peter Mueller

When propagating uncertainty in the data of differential equations, the probability laws describing the uncertainty are typically themselves subject to uncertainty. We present a sensitivity analysis of uncertainty propagation for…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-01 Oliver G. Ernst , Alois Pichler , Björn Sprungk

The effects of treatments are often heterogeneous, depending on the observable characteristics, and it is necessary to exploit such heterogeneity to devise individualized treatment rules (ITRs). Existing estimation methods of such ITRs…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-08-09 Daido Kido

Regression is one of the most fundamental statistical inference problems. A broad definition of regression problems is as estimation of the distribution of an outcome using a family of probability models indexed by covariates. Despite the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-09-26 Peter Mueller , Fernando Andrés Quintana , Garritt L. Page

This paper provides a simple procedure to fit generative networks to target distributions, with the goal of a small Wasserstein distance (or other optimal transport costs). The approach is based on two principles: (a) if the source…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-12 Yucheng Chen , Matus Telgarsky , Chao Zhang , Bolton Bailey , Daniel Hsu , Jian Peng

Distributionally robust stochastic optimization (DRSO) is an approach to optimization under uncertainty in which, instead of assuming that there is a known true underlying probability distribution, one hedges against a chosen set of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-05-03 Rui Gao , Anton J. Kleywegt

Discriminating between distributions is an important problem in a number of scientific fields. This motivated the introduction of Linear Optimal Transportation (LOT), which embeds the space of distributions into an $L^2$-space. The…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-05-27 Caroline Moosmüller , Alexander Cloninger

We propose a novel distributional regression model for a multivariate response vector based on a copula process over the covariate space. It uses the implicit copula of a Gaussian multivariate regression, which we call a ``regression…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-06 Nadja Klein , Michael Stanley Smith , David Nott , Ryan Chisholm

Wasserstein distances are metrics on probability distributions inspired by the problem of optimal mass transportation. Roughly speaking, they measure the minimal effort required to reconfigure the probability mass of one distribution in…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-10 Victor M. Panaretos , Yoav Zemel

Segmented regression models offer model flexibility and interpretability as compared to the global parametric and the nonparametric models, and yet are challenging in both estimation and inference. We consider a four-regime segmented model…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-08 Han Yan , Song Xi Chen