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Instrumental variables (IV) estimation is a fundamental method in econometrics and statistics for estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, challenges such as untestable model assumptions and poor finite…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-24 Zhaonan Qu , Yongchan Kwon

Random Forest (Breiman, 2001) is a successful and widely used regression and classification algorithm. Part of its appeal and reason for its versatility is its (implicit) construction of a kernel-type weighting function on training data,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-13 Domagoj Ćevid , Loris Michel , Jeffrey Näf , Nicolai Meinshausen , Peter Bühlmann

We study the problem of robust distribution estimation under the Wasserstein distance, a popular discrepancy measure between probability distributions rooted in optimal transport (OT) theory. Given $n$ samples from an unknown distribution…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-25 Sloan Nietert , Rachel Cummings , Ziv Goldfeld

In problems that involve input parameter information gathered from multiple data sources with varying reliability, incorporating decision makers' trust on different sources in optimization models can potentially improve solution…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-27 Yanru Guo , Ruiwei Jiang , Siqian Shen

This paper addresses a new active learning strategy for regression problems. The presented Wasserstein active regression model is based on the principles of distribution-matching to measure the representativeness of the labeled dataset. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Benjamin Bobbia , Matthias Picard

Model predictive control (MPC) schemes have a proven track record for delivering aggressive and robust performance in many challenging control tasks, coping with nonlinear system dynamics, constraints, and observational noise. Despite their…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-01-24 Lucas Barcelos , Alexander Lambert , Rafael Oliveira , Paulo Borges , Byron Boots , Fabio Ramos

In this paper, we consider the problem of propagating an uncertain distribution by a possibly non-linear function and quantifying the resulting uncertainty. We measure the uncertainty using the Wasserstein distance, and for a given input…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-06-13 Eduardo Figueiredo , Steven Adams , Peyman Mohajerin Esfahani , Luca Laurenti

We develop IV Fr\'echet regression (IVFR), an instrumental-variable (IV) method for settings where the outcome is an entire distribution. Framing the problem as an IV regression in 2-Wasserstein space, IVFR extends global Fr\'echet…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-28 David Van Dijcke , Kaspar Wüthrich

We propose a novel method for forecasting the temporal evolution of probability distributions observed at discrete time points. Extending the Dynamic Probability Density Decomposition (DPDD), we embed distributional dynamics into…

Applications · Statistics 2025-09-03 Ziyue Wang , Yuko Araki

Optimal transport (OT) and the related Wasserstein metric (W) are powerful and ubiquitous tools for comparing distributions. However, computing pairwise Wasserstein distances rapidly becomes intractable as cohort size grows. An attractive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Doron Haviv , Russell Zhang Kunes , Thomas Dougherty , Cassandra Burdziak , Tal Nawy , Anna Gilbert , Dana Pe'er

We consider a general online stochastic optimization problem with multiple budget constraints over a horizon of finite time periods. In each time period, a reward function and multiple cost functions are revealed, and the decision maker…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-26 Jiashuo Jiang , Xiaocheng Li , Jiawei Zhang

We consider stochastic programs conditional on some covariate information, where the only knowledge of the possible relationship between the uncertain parameters and the covariates is reduced to a finite data sample of their joint…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-11-23 Adrián Esteban-Pérez , Juan M. Morales

Gromov-Wasserstein (GW) transport is inherently invariant under isometric transformations of the data. Having this property in mind, we propose to estimate dynamical systems by transfer operators derived from GW transport plans, when merely…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-03-15 Florian Beier

Federated reinforcement learning typically aggregates value functions or policies by parameter averaging, which emphasizes expected return and can obscure statistical multimodality and tail behavior that matter in safety-critical settings.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-19 David Millard , Cecilia Alm , Rashid Ali , Pengcheng Shi , Ali Baheri

We study optimization problems whereby the optimization variable is a probability measure. Since the probability space is not a vector space, many classical and powerful methods for optimization (e.g., gradients) are of little help. Thus,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-06-18 Nicolas Lanzetti , Antonio Terpin , Florian Dörfler

This paper studies the expected optimal value of a mixed 0-1 programming problem with uncertain objective coefficients following a joint distribution. We assume that the true distribution is not known exactly, but a set of independent…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-08-28 Guanglin Xu , Samuel Burer

We propose a generic Bayesian framework for inference in distributional regression models in which each parameter of a potentially complex response distribution and not only the mean is related to a structured additive predictor. The latter…

Applications · Statistics 2015-09-18 Nadja Klein , Thomas Kneib , Stefan Lang , Alexander Sohn

Optimal transport has recently proved to be a useful tool in various machine learning applications needing comparisons of probability measures. Among these, applications of distributionally robust optimization naturally involve Wasserstein…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-24 Waïss Azizian , Franck Iutzeler , Jérôme Malick

Multivariate spatial fields are of interest in many applications, including climate model emulation. Not only can the marginal spatial fields be subject to nonstationarity, but the dependence structure among the marginal fields and between…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-21 Paul F. V. Wiemann , Matthias Katzfuss

We propose a scalable robust learning algorithm combining kernel smoothing and robust optimization. Our method is motivated by the convex analysis perspective of distributionally robust optimization based on probability metrics, such as the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-22 Jia-Jie Zhu , Christina Kouridi , Yassine Nemmour , Bernhard Schölkopf
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