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Calibration ensures that probabilistic forecasts meaningfully capture uncertainty by requiring that predicted probabilities align with empirical frequencies. However, many existing calibration methods are specialized for post-hoc…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-01 Charles Marx , Sofian Zalouk , Stefano Ermon

We study online transfer reinforcement learning (RL) in episodic Markov decision processes, where experience from related source tasks is available during learning on a target task. A fundamental difficulty is that task similarity is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Elynn Chen , Enpei Zhang , Jinhang Chai , Yujun Yan

We study the exploration problem with approximate linear action-value functions in episodic reinforcement learning under the notion of low inherent Bellman error, a condition normally employed to show convergence of approximate value…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-30 Andrea Zanette , Alessandro Lazaric , Mykel Kochenderfer , Emma Brunskill

We propose A-Crab (Actor-Critic Regularized by Average Bellman error), a new practical algorithm for offline reinforcement learning (RL) in complex environments with insufficient data coverage. Our algorithm combines the marginalized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-10 Hanlin Zhu , Paria Rashidinejad , Jiantao Jiao

Most of the policy evaluation algorithms are based on the theories of Bellman Expectation and Optimality Equation, which derive two popular approaches - Policy Iteration (PI) and Value Iteration (VI). However, multi-step bootstrapping is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-16 Yuhui Wang , Qingyuan Wu , Pengcheng He , Xiaoyang Tan

Calibration error is commonly adopted for evaluating the quality of uncertainty estimators in deep neural networks. In this paper, we argue that such a metric is highly beneficial for training predictive models, even when we do not…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-01 Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan , Bindya Venkatesh , Deepta Rajan

Offline reinforcement learning and offline inverse reinforcement learning aim to recover near-optimal value functions or reward models from a fixed batch of logged trajectories, yet current practice still struggles to enforce Bellman…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-27 Enoch H. Kang , Kyoungseok Jang

The class-wise training losses often diverge as a result of the various levels of intra-class and inter-class appearance variation, and we find that the diverging class-wise training losses cause the uncalibrated prediction with its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Seungjin Jung , Seungmo Seo , Yonghyun Jeong , Jongwon Choi

We consider the problem of quantifying uncertainty over expected cumulative rewards in model-based reinforcement learning. In particular, we focus on characterizing the variance over values induced by a distribution over MDPs. Previous work…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-08 Carlos E. Luis , Alessandro G. Bottero , Julia Vinogradska , Felix Berkenkamp , Jan Peters

Traditional reinforcement learning (RL) assumes the agents make decisions based on Markov decision processes (MDPs) with one-step transition models. In many real-world applications, such as energy management and stock investment, agents can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-22 Chenbei Lu , Zaiwei Chen , Tongxin Li , Chenye Wu , Adam Wierman

In many real-world settings, reinforcement learning systems suffer performance degradation when the environment encountered at deployment differs from that observed during training. Distributionally robust reinforcement learning (DR-RL)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Debamita Ghosh , George K. Atia , Yue Wang

Overconfidence and underconfidence in machine learning classifiers is measured by calibration: the degree to which the probabilities predicted for each class match the accuracy of the classifier on that prediction. How one measures…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-11 Jeremy Nixon , Mike Dusenberry , Ghassen Jerfel , Timothy Nguyen , Jeremiah Liu , Linchuan Zhang , Dustin Tran

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in decision-making tasks, where not only accuracy but also reliable confidence estimates are essential. Well-calibrated confidence enables downstream systems to decide when to trust a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Duygu Nur Yaldiz , Evangelia Spiliopoulou , Zheng Qi , Siddharth Varia , Srikanth Doss , Nikolaos Pappas

Estimates of predictive uncertainty are important for accurate model-based planning and reinforcement learning. However, predictive uncertainties---especially ones derived from modern deep learning systems---can be inaccurate and impose a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-21 Ali Malik , Volodymyr Kuleshov , Jiaming Song , Danny Nemer , Harlan Seymour , Stefano Ermon

Continual Learning (CL) focuses on maximizing the predictive performance of a model across a non-stationary stream of data. Unfortunately, CL models tend to forget previous knowledge, thus often underperforming when compared with an offline…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-15 Lanpei Li , Elia Piccoli , Andrea Cossu , Davide Bacciu , Vincenzo Lomonaco

A reliable deep learning system should be able to accurately express its confidence with respect to its predictions, a quality known as calibration. One of the most effective ways to produce reliable confidence estimates with a pre-trained…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Thomas P. Zollo , Zhun Deng , Jake C. Snell , Toniann Pitassi , Richard Zemel

This paper develops an inverse reinforcement learning algorithm aimed at recovering a reward function from the observed actions of an agent. We introduce a strategy to flexibly handle different types of actions with two approximations of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-07-26 Kun Li , Yanan Sui , Joel W. Burdick

Policy evaluation is a key process in Reinforcement Learning (RL). It assesses a given policy by estimating the corresponding value function. When using parameterized value functions, common approaches minimize the sum of squared Bellman…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-19 Shirli Di-Castro Shashua , Shie Mannor

Value function approximation is important in modern reinforcement learning (RL) problems especially when the state space is (infinitely) large. Despite the importance and wide applicability of value function approximation, its theoretical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-24 Hanlin Zhu , Ruosong Wang , Jason D. Lee

Value function learning plays a central role in many state-of-the-art reinforcement-learning algorithms. Many popular algorithms like Q-learning do not optimize any objective function, but are fixed-point iterations of some variant of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-10 Yihao Feng , Lihong Li , Qiang Liu