Related papers: Using a rare event sampling technique to quantify …
On average once every four years, the Tropical Pacific warms considerably during events called El Ni\~no, leading to weather disruptions over many regions on Earth. Recent machine-learning approaches to El Ni\~no prediction, in particular…
Extreme events, such as market crashes, natural disasters, and pandemics, are rare but catastrophic, often triggering cascading failures across interconnected systems. Accurate prediction and early warning can help minimize losses and…
In recent years, extreme weather events have surged, highlighting the urgent need for action on the climate emergency. The year 2023 saw record-breaking global temperatures, unprecedented heatwaves in Europe, devastating floods in Asia, and…
To advance automated detection of extreme weather events, which are increasing in frequency and intensity with climate change, we explore modifications to a novel light-weight Context Guided convolutional neural network architecture trained…
El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent interannual climate variability in the tropics and exhibits diverse features in spatiotemporal patterns. In this paper, a simple multiscale intermediate coupled stochastic model is…
Forecasting time series with extreme events has been a challenging and prevalent research topic, especially when the time series data are affected by complicated uncertain factors, such as is the case in hydrologic prediction. Diverse…
Extreme weather is one of the main mechanisms through which climate change will directly impact human society. Coping with such change as a global community requires markedly improved understanding of how global warming drives extreme…
The effects of El Ni\~no's two distinct flavors, East Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP)/Modoki El Ni\~no, on global climate variability have been studied intensively in recent years. Most of these studies have made use of linear…
The probability of rare and extreme events is an important quantity for design purposes. However, computing the probability of rare events can be expensive because only a few events, if any, can be observed. To this end, it is necessary to…
El Nino is an extreme weather event featuring unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon is characterized by heavy rains and floods that negatively affect the economic activities of the…
A proper channel modeling methodology that characterizes the statistics of extreme events is key in the design of a system at an ultra-reliable regime of operation. The strict constraint of ultra-reliability corresponds to the packet error…
The accurate long-term forecasting of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still one of the biggest challenges in climate science. While it is true that short-to medium-range performance has been improved significantly using the…
The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of interannual global climate variability and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Recently, we have developed two approaches…
We analyse the transitions between established phases of the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by surveying the daily data of the Southern Oscillation Index from an entropic viewpoint using the framework of stochastic Statistical…
Deep generative models are increasingly used to gain insights in the geospatial data domain, e.g., for climate data. However, most existing approaches work with temporal snapshots or assume 1D time-series; few are able to capture…
An information-theoretic framework is developed to assess the predictability of ENSO complexity, which is a central problem in contemporary meteorology with large societal impacts. The information theory advances a unique way to quantify…
Although anomalous episodical warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific, dubbed El Ni\~no by Peruvian fishermen, has major (and occasionally devastating) impacts around the globe, robust forecasting is still limited to about six months…
Extreme weather events, such as windstorms and heatwaves, are driven by persistent atmospheric circulation patterns that evolve over several consecutive days. While traditional circulation-based studies often focus on instantaneous…
El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits diverse characteristics in spatial pattern, peak intensity, and temporal evolution. Here we develop a three-region multiscale stochastic model to show that the observed ENSO complexity can be…
We develop a new algorithm for the estimation of rare event probabilities associated with the steady-state of a Markov stochastic process with continuous state space $\mathbb R^d$ and discrete time steps (i.e. a discrete-time $\mathbb…