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Reliable uncertainty quantification is crucial for reinforcement learning (RL) in high-stakes settings. We propose a unified conformal prediction framework for infinite-horizon policy evaluation that constructs distribution-free prediction…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-31 Feichen Gan , Youcun Lu , Yingying Zhang , Yukun Liu

In modern electronic manufacturing, defect detection on Printed Circuit Boards (PCBs) plays a critical role in ensuring product yield and maintaining the reliability of downstream assembly processes. However, existing methods often suffer…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-07-08 Jiangzhong Cao , Huanqi Wu , Xu Zhang , Lianghong Tan , Huan Zhang

Conformal prediction (CP) has emerged as a powerful tool in robotics and control, thanks to its ability to calibrate complex, data-driven models with formal guarantees. However, in robot navigation tasks, existing CP-based methods often…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-04-02 Jaeuk Shin , Jungjin Lee , Insoon Yang

Graphical structures estimated by causal learning algorithms from time series data can provide misleading causal information if the causal timescale of the generating process fails to match the measurement timescale of the data. Existing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-22 Mohammadsajad Abavisani , David Danks , Sergey Plis

As a key component to intuitive cognition and reasoning solutions in human intelligence, causal knowledge provides great potential for reinforcement learning (RL) agents' interpretability towards decision-making by helping reduce the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-25 Ruichu Cai , Siyang Huang , Jie Qiao , Wei Chen , Yan Zeng , Keli Zhang , Fuchun Sun , Yang Yu , Zhifeng Hao

Selective conformal prediction can yield substantially tighter uncertainty sets when we can identify calibration examples that are exchangeable with the test example. In interventional settings, such as perturbation experiments in genomics,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Amir Asiaee , Kavey Aryan , James P. Long

Reinforcement learning (RL) has achieved remarkable success in a wide range of sequential decision-making problems. Recent diffusion-based policies further improve RL by modeling complex, high-dimensional action distributions. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-11 Xiaofeng Xiao , Xiao Hu , Yang Ye , Xubo Yue

Many multivariate time series anomaly detection frameworks have been proposed and widely applied. However, most of these frameworks do not consider intrinsic relationships between variables in multivariate time series data, thus ignoring…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-11 Falih Gozi Febrinanto , Kristen Moore , Chandra Thapa , Mujie Liu , Vidya Saikrishna , Jiangang Ma , Feng Xia

We propose a new conformal prediction method for time-series data with a guaranteed asymptotic conditional coverage rate, Sequential Conformalized Density Regions (SCDR), which is flexible enough to produce both prediction intervals and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-09 M. Sampson , K. S. Chan

The recent advancement in vehicular networking technology provides novel solutions for designing intelligent and sustainable vehicle motion controllers. This work addresses a car-following task, where the feedback linearisation method is…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-10-28 Sheng Yu , Xiao Pan , Anastasis Georgiou , Boli Chen , Imad M. Jaimoukha , Simos A. Evangelou

Cross-domain recommendation forms a crucial component in recommendation systems. It leverages auxiliary information through source domain tasks or features to enhance target domain recommendations. However, incorporating inconsistent source…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Zhibo Wu , Yunfan Wu , Lin Jiang , Ping Yang , Yao Hu

Convolutional neural networks (CNN) have led to many state-of-the-art results spanning through various fields. However, a clear and profound theoretical understanding of the forward pass, the core algorithm of CNN, is still lacking. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-02-02 Vardan Papyan , Yaniv Romano , Michael Elad

A reliable representation of uncertainty is essential for the application of modern machine learning methods in safety-critical settings. In this regard, the use of credal sets (i.e., convex sets of probability distributions) has recently…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Paul Hofman , Timo Löhr , Maximilian Muschalik , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier

We propose \textbf{Temporal Conformal Prediction (TCP)}, a distribution-free framework for constructing well-calibrated prediction intervals in nonstationary time series. TCP couples a modern quantile forecaster with a rolling…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-26 Agnideep Aich , Ashit Baran Aich , Dipak C. Jain

Conformal prediction has been explored as a general and efficient way to provide uncertainty quantification for time series. However, current methods struggle to handle time series data with change points - sudden shifts in the underlying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-02 Sophia Sun , Rose Yu

We develop a three-component Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm to achieve output-reference tracking with prescribed performance for continuous-time nonlinear systems. One component is so-called funnel MPC, which achieves reference…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-02-18 Lukas Lanza , Dario Dennstädt , Thomas Berger , Karl Worthmann

Modern deep learning based classifiers show very high accuracy on test data but this does not provide sufficient guarantees for safe deployment, especially in high-stake AI applications such as medical diagnosis. Usually, predictions are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-09 David Stutz , Krishnamurthy , Dvijotham , Ali Taylan Cemgil , Arnaud Doucet

In this paper, we present a novel approach for conformal prediction (CP), in which we aim to identify a set of promising prediction candidates -- in place of a single prediction. This set is guaranteed to contain a correct answer with high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-03 Adam Fisch , Tal Schuster , Tommi Jaakkola , Regina Barzilay

Linear residualization is a common practice for confounding adjustment in machine learning (ML) applications. Recently, causality-aware predictive modeling has been proposed as an alternative causality-inspired approach for adjusting for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-10 Elias Chaibub Neto

A multirate nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) strategy is proposed for systems with dynamics and control inputs evolving on different timescales. The proposed multirate formulation of the system model and receding horizon optimal…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-07-05 Yana Lishkova , Mark Cannon , Sina Ober-Blöbaum