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We introduce a novel framework to financial time series forecasting that leverages causality-inspired models to balance the trade-off between invariance to distributional changes and minimization of prediction errors. To the best of our…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-08-20 Daniel Cunha Oliveira , Yutong Lu , Xi Lin , Mihai Cucuringu , Andre Fujita

Reservoir computing, a machine learning framework used for modeling the brain, can predict temporal data with little observations and minimal computational resources. However, it is difficult to accurately reproduce the long-term target…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-24 Yuji Kawai , Takashi Morita , Jihoon Park , Minoru Asada

Matrix multiplication over the real field constitutes a foundational operation in the training of deep learning models, serving as a computational cornerstone for both forward and backward propagation processes. However, the presence of…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2025-08-07 Hao Shi , Zhengyi Jiang , Zhongyi Huang , Bo Bai , Gong Zhang , Hanxu Hou

This research introduces a multi-horizon contingency model predictive control (CMPC) framework in which classes of robust MPC (RMPC) algorithms are combined with classes of learning-based MPC (LB-MPC) algorithms to enable safe learning. We…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-05-30 Merlijne Geurts , Tren Baltussen , Alexander Katriniok , Maurice Heemels

Conformal prediction is a popular technique for constructing prediction intervals with distribution-free coverage guarantees. The coverage is marginal, meaning it only holds on average over the entire population but not necessarily for any…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-28 Yao Zhang , Emmanuel J. Candès

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular method for uncertainty quantification with machine learning models. While conformal prediction provides probabilistic guarantees regarding the coverage of the true label, these guarantees are agnostic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Aditya T. Vadlamani , Anutam Srinivasan , Pranav Maneriker , Ali Payani , Srinivasan Parthasarathy

Prediction sets provide a means of quantifying the uncertainty in predictive tasks. Using held out calibration data, conformal prediction and risk control can produce prediction sets that exhibit statistically valid error control in a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-05 Bror Hultberg , Dave Zachariah , Antônio H. Ribeiro

Since distribution shifts are common in real-world applications, there is a pressing need to develop prediction models that are robust against such shifts. Existing frameworks, such as empirical risk minimization or distributionally robust…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-25 Xinwei Shen , Peter Bühlmann , Armeen Taeb

This paper presents a novel approach to handle the computational complexity in security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) with corrective network reconfiguration (CNR) to harness the flexibility in transmission networks. This is achieved…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-07-21 Arun Venkatesh Ramesh , Xingpeng Li , Kory W. Hedman

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) has significantly enhanced large language models (LLMs) in knowledge-intensive tasks by incorporating external knowledge retrieval. However, existing RAG frameworks primarily rely on semantic similarity…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-18 Elahe Khatibi , Ziyu Wang , Amir M. Rahmani

Causal representation learning (CRL) models aim to transform high-dimensional data into a latent space, enabling interventions to generate counterfactual samples or modify existing data based on the causal relationships among latent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-19 Alireza Sadeghi , Wael AbdAlmageed

This paper presents an uncertainty compensation-based robust adaptive model predictive control (MPC) framework for linear systems with both matched and unmatched nonlinear uncertainties subject to both state and input constraints. In…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-09-27 Ran Tao , Pan Zhao , Ilya Kolmanovsky , Naira Hovakimyan

Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) is widely used for controlling high-speed robotic systems such as quadrotors. However, its significant computational demands often hinder real-time feasibility and reliability, particularly in…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-09-30 Saber Omidi

End-to-end engineering design pipelines, in which designs are evaluated using concurrently defined optimal controllers, are becoming increasingly common in practice. To discover designs that perform well even under the misspecification of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-10 Yash Patel , Sahana Rayan , Ambuj Tewari

Reservoir computing (RC) is a state-of-the-art machine learning method that makes use of the power of dynamical systems (the reservoir) for real-time inference. When using biological complex systems as reservoir substrates, it serves as a…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2026-03-03 Mario U. Gaimann , Miriam Klopotek

This study presents incremental correction methods for refining neural network parameters or control functions entering into a continuous-time dynamic system to achieve improved solution accuracy in satisfying the interim point constraints…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-03-12 Namhoon Cho , Hyo-Sang Shin , Antonios Tsourdos , Davide Amato

We propose a stochastic model predictive control (MPC) framework for linear systems subject to joint-in-time chance constraints under unknown disturbance distributions. Unlike existing approaches that rely on parametric or Gaussian…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-21 Lukas Vogel , Andrea Carron , Eleftherios E. Vlahakis , Dimos V. Dimarogonas

The dynamic characteristics of multiphase industrial processes present significant challenges in the field of industrial big data modeling. Traditional soft sensing models frequently neglect the process dynamics and have difficulty in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-09 Yimeng He , Le Yao , Xinmin Zhang , Xiangyin Kong , Zhihuan Song

Deep learning models in robotics often output point estimates with poorly calibrated confidences, offering no native mechanism to quantify predictive reliability under novel, noisy, or out-of-distribution inputs. Conformal prediction (CP)…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Divake Kumar , Sina Tayebati , Francesco Migliarba , Ranganath Krishnan , Amit Ranjan Trivedi

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have made great strides in pushing the state-of-the-art in several challenging domains. Recent studies reveal that they are prone to making overconfident predictions. This greatly reduces the overall trust in…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-09-07 Vinith Kugathasan , Muhammad Haris Khan