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Exchangeability is a central notion in statistics and probability theory. The assumption that an infinite sequence of data points is exchangeable is at the core of Bayesian statistics. However, finite exchangeability as a statistical…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-04-24 Mathias Niepert , Guy Van den Broeck

Almost surely, the difference between the randomness deficiencies of two infinite sequences will be unbounded with respect to repeated iterations of the shift operator.

Computational Complexity · Computer Science 2024-08-28 Samuel Epstein

Exchangeability -- in which the distribution of an infinite sequence is invariant to reorderings of its elements -- implies the existence of a simple conditional independence structure that may be leveraged in the design of statistical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-25 Trevor Campbell , Saifuddin Syed , Chiao-Yu Yang , Michael I. Jordan , Tamara Broderick

Some practical results are derived for population inference based on a sample, under the two qualitative conditions of 'ignorability' and exchangeability. These are the 'Histogram Theorem', for predicting the outcome of a non-sampled member…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-11-12 Jonathan Rougier

This paper argues for a wider use of the functional theory of randomness, a modification of the algorithmic theory of randomness getting rid of unspecified additive constants. Both theories are useful for understanding relationships between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Vladimir Vovk

We derive representation theorems for exchangeable distributions on finite and infinite graphs using elementary arguments based on geometric and graph-theoretic concepts. Our results elucidate some of the key differences, and their…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-09-18 Steffen L. Lauritzen , Alessandro Rinaldo , Kayvan Sadeghi

This work starts from definition of randomness, the results of algorithmic randomness are analyzed from the perspective of application. Then, the source and nature of randomness is explored, and the relationship between infinity and…

General Mathematics · Mathematics 2022-12-01 Yongxin Li

There are many randomness notions. On the classical account, many of them are about whether a given infinite binary sequence is random for some given probability. If so, this probability turns out to be the same for all these notions, so…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-07-19 Floris Persiau , Jasper De Bock , Gert de Cooman

We review old and new uses of exchangeability, emphasizing the general theme of exchangeable representations of complex random structures. Illustrations of this theme include processes of stochastic coalescence and fragmentation; continuum…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-02-22 David J. Aldous

The extended de Finetti theorem characterizes exchangeable infinite random sequences as conditionally i.i.d. and shows that the apparently weaker distributional symmetry of spreadability is equivalent to exchangeability. Our main result is…

Operator Algebras · Mathematics 2008-06-24 Claus Köstler

An infinite binary sequence is deemed to be random if it has all definable properties that hold almost surely for the usual probability measure on the set of infinite binary sequences. There are only countably many such properties, so it…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-03-18 Peter G. Doyle

Randomness is a crucial resource for a broad range of important applications, such as Monte Carlo simulation and computation, generative artificial intelligence and cryptography. But what is randomness? A widely accepted definition has…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-10-01 Mario Stipčević

We introduce a notion of computable randomness for infinite sequences that generalises the classical version in two important ways. First, our definition of computable randomness is associated with imprecise probability models, in the sense…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-23 Floris Persiau , Jasper De Bock , Gert de Cooman

We establish a one-to-one correspondence between (i) exchangeable sequences of random variables whose finite-dimensional distributions are minimum (or maximum) infinitely divisible and (ii) non-negative, non-decreasing, infinitely divisible…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-21 Florian Brück , Jan-Frederik Mai , Matthias Scherer

Sets of desirable gambles constitute a quite general type of uncertainty model with an interesting geometrical interpretation. We give a general discussion of such models and their rationality criteria. We study exchangeability assessments…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-12-10 Gert de Cooman , Erik Quaeghebeur

Algorithmic theories of randomness can be related to theories of probabilistic sequence prediction through the notion of a predictor, defined as a function which supplies lower bounds on initial-segment probabilities of infinite sequences.…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-01-25 Lenhart K. Schubert

Though the notion of exchangeability has been discussed in the causal inference literature under various guises, it has rarely taken its original meaning as a symmetry property of probability distributions. As this property is a standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-04 Olli Saarela , David A. Stephens , Erica E. M. Moodie

In this article we demonstrate the relationship between finitely exchangeable arrays and finitely exchangeable sequences. We then derive sharp bounds on the total variation distance between distributions of finitely and infinitely…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-02-25 Alexander Volfovsky , Edoardo Airoldi

The hypothesis of randomness is fundamental in statistical machine learning and in many areas of nonparametric statistics; it says that the observations are assumed to be independent and coming from the same unknown probability…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-02-08 Vladimir Vovk

Motivated by recent interests in predictive inference under distribution shift, we study the problem of approximating finite weighted exchangeable sequences by a mixture of finite sequences with independent terms. Various bounds are derived…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-06-21 Wenpin Tang
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