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In a recent paper [1], it has been claimed that the outcomes of a quantum coin toss which is idealized as an infinite binary sequence is 1-random. We also defend the correctness of this claim and assert that the outcomes of quantum…

General Physics · Physics 2021-06-16 İnanç Şahin

Many popular network models rely on the assumption of (vertex) exchangeability, in which the distribution of the graph is invariant to relabelings of the vertices. However, the Aldous-Hoover theorem guarantees that these graphs are dense or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-02-07 Diana Cai , Trevor Campbell , Tamara Broderick

A notion of conditionally identically distributed (c.i.d.) sequences has been studied as a form of stochastic dependence that is weaker than exchangeability, but is equivalent to exchangeability for stationary sequences. In this article we…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-03-07 Sandra Fortini , Sonia Petrone , Polina Sporysheva

Given well-shuffled data, can we determine whether the data items are statistically (in)dependent? Formally, we consider the problem of testing whether a set of exchangeable random variables are independent. We will show that this is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-10-25 Marcus Hutter

Permutation tests are a powerful and flexible approach to inference via resampling. As computational methods become more ubiquitous in the statistics curriculum, use of permutation tests has become more tractable. At the heart of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-09 Johanna Hardin , Lauren Quesada , Julie Ye , Nicholas J. Horton

Intelligent agents must be able to articulate its own uncertainty. In this work, we show that pre-trained sequence models are naturally capable of probabilistic reasoning over exchangeable data points -- forming informed beliefs and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-02 Naimeng Ye , Hongseok Namkoong

The predictability of a sequence is defined as the asymptotic performance of the best performing predictor in a given class. The value of the predictability of a sequence will in general depend on the choice of this predictor class. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-04-15 Finn Macleod , Alexei Pokrovskii , Dima Rachinskii

De Finetti's theorem, also called the de Finetti-Hewitt-Savage theorem, is a foundational result in probability and statistics. Roughly, it says that an infinite sequence of exchangeable random variables can always be written as a mixture…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-29 Rina Foygel Barber , Emmanuel J. Candes , Aaditya Ramdas , Ryan J. Tibshirani

Empirical process theory for i.i.d. observations has emerged as a ubiquitous tool for understanding the generalization properties of various statistical problems. However, in many applications where the data exhibit temporal dependencies…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-01-18 Nabarun Deb , Debarghya Mukherjee

Exchangeability is a fundamental concept in probability theory and statistics. It allows to model situations where the order of observations does not matter. The classical de Finetti's theorem provides a representation of infinitely…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-12-30 Alessio Benavoli , Alessandro Facchini , Marco Zaffalon

We characterize some asymptotic properties of edge exchangeable random graphs in terms of the measure used to generate them. In particular, we give a necessary and sufficient condition for eventual forever connectedness, a sufficient…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-07 Edward Eriksson

We extend de Finetti's [Ann. Inst. H. Poincar\'{e} 7 (1937) 1--68] notion of exchangeability to finite and countable sequences of variables, when a subject's beliefs about them are modelled using coherent lower previsions rather than…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-08 Gert de Cooman , Erik Quaeghebeur , Enrique Miranda

A predictive distribution over a sequence of $N+1$ events is said to be "frequency mimicking" whenever the probability for the final event conditioned on the outcome of the first $N$ events equals the relative frequency of successes among…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-06 Frank Lad , Giuseppe Sanfilippo

A sequence of random variables is exchangeable if its joint distribution is invariant under variable permutations. We introduce exchangeable variable models (EVMs) as a novel class of probabilistic models whose basic building blocks are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-05-06 Mathias Niepert , Pedro Domingos

In a prequential approach to algorithmic randomness, probabilities for the next outcome can be forecast `on the fly' without the need for fully specifying a probability measure on all possible sequences of outcomes, as is the case in the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-26 Floris Persiau , Gert de Cooman

The aim of this paper is to establish Hoeffding and Bernstein type concentration inequalities for weighted sums of exchangeable random variables. A special case is the i.i.d. setting, where random variables are sampled independently from…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-11 Rina Foygel Barber

There is currently a renewed interest in the Bayesian predictive approach to statistics. This paper offers a review on foundational concepts and focuses on predictive modeling, which by directly reasoning on prediction, bypasses inferential…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-22 Sandra Fortini , Sonia Petrone

We investigate how to model exchangeability with choice functions. Exchangeability is a structural assessment on a sequence of uncertain variables. We show how such assessments are a special indifference assessment, and how that leads to a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-03-07 Arthur Van Camp , Gert de Cooman

In statistical network analysis, models for binary adjacency matrices satisfying vertex exchangeability are commonly used. However, such models may fail to capture key features of the data-generating process when interactions, rather than…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-03 Ayoushman Bhattacharya , Nilanjan Chakraborty , Robert Lunde

For positive $q\neq1$, the $q$-exchangeability of an infinite random word is introduced as quasi-invariance under permutations of letters, with a special cocycle which accounts for inversions in the word. This framework allows us to extend…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-11-11 Alexander Gnedin , Grigori Olshanski