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In the burgeoning ecosystem of Internet of Things, multivariate time series (MTS) data has become ubiquitous, highlighting the fundamental role of time series forecasting across numerous applications. The crucial challenge of long-term MTS…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-06 Zhenwei Zhang , Linghang Meng , Yuantao Gu

Understanding why a neural network model makes certain decisions can be as important as the inference performance. Various methods have been proposed to help practitioners explain the prediction of a neural network model, of which Shapley…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-04 Yong Zhao , Runxin He , Nicholas Kersting , Can Liu , Shubham Agrawal , Chiranjeet Chetia , Yu Gu

Researchers in explainable artificial intelligence have developed numerous methods for helping users understand the predictions of complex supervised learning models. By contrast, explaining the $\textit{uncertainty}$ of model outputs has…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-01 David S. Watson , Joshua O'Hara , Niek Tax , Richard Mudd , Ido Guy

Accurate forecasting of multivariate time series remains challenging due to the need to capture both short-term fluctuations and long-range temporal dependencies. Transformer-based models have emerged as a powerful approach, but their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-26 Aymane Harkati , Moncef Garouani , Olivier Teste , Julien Aligon , Mohamed Hamlich

Although Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) can be computed in polynomial time for simple models like decision trees, they unfortunately become NP-hard to compute for more expressive black-box models like neural networks - where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-23 Reda Marzouk , Shahaf Bassan , Guy Katz

Industrial Internet of Things environments increasingly rely on advanced Anomaly Detection and explanation techniques to rapidly detect and mitigate cyberincidents, thereby ensuring operational safety. The sequential nature of data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Manuel Franco de la Peña , Ángel Luis Perales Gómez , Lorenzo Fernández Maimó

Modern time series forecasting methods, such as Transformer and its variants, have shown strong ability in sequential data modeling. To achieve high performance, they usually rely on redundant or unexplainable structures to model complex…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-30 Jingyi Hou , Zhen Dong , Jiayu Zhou , Zhijie Liu

We introduce a local surrogate approach for explainable time-series forecasting. An initially non-interpretable predictive model to improve the forecast of a classical time-series 'base model' is used. 'Explainability' of the correction is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-17 Alfredo Lopez , Florian Sobieczky

Time series data is prevalent in a wide variety of real-world applications and it calls for trustworthy and explainable models for people to understand and fully trust decisions made by AI solutions. We consider the problem of building…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Tsung-Yu Hsieh , Suhang Wang , Yiwei Sun , Vasant Honavar

Time series forecasting plays a critical role in domains such as energy, finance, and healthcare, where accurate predictions inform decision-making under uncertainty. Although Transformer-based models have demonstrated success in sequential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Ali Forootani , Mohammad Khosravi

Nowadays, deep neural networks are widely used in a variety of fields that have a direct impact on society. Although those models typically show outstanding performance, they have been used for a long time as black boxes. To address this,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-11 Huawei Sun , Lorenzo Servadei , Hao Feng , Michael Stephan , Robert Wille , Avik Santra

Transformer-based models have greatly pushed the boundaries of time series forecasting recently. Existing methods typically encode time series data into $\textit{patches}$ using one or a fixed set of patch lengths. This, however, could…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-09 Linfeng Du , Ji Xin , Alex Labach , Saba Zuberi , Maksims Volkovs , Rahul G. Krishnan

Time series forecasting is essential for many practical applications, with the adoption of transformer-based models on the rise due to their impressive performance in NLP and CV. Transformers' key feature, the attention mechanism,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-09 PeiSong Niu , Tian Zhou , Xue Wang , Liang Sun , Rong Jin

Transformer architectures have been widely adopted for time series forecasting, yet whether the representational mechanisms that make them powerful in NLP actually engage on time series data remains unexplored. The persistent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Alper Yıldırım

Transformer-based methods have shown great potential in long-term time series forecasting. However, most of these methods adopt the standard point-wise self-attention mechanism, which not only becomes intractable for long-term forecasting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-24 Dazhao Du , Bing Su , Zhewei Wei

As predictive machine learning models become increasingly adopted and advanced, their role has evolved from merely predicting outcomes to actively shaping them. This evolution has underscored the importance of Trustworthy AI, highlighting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-07 Fabio Michele Russo , Carlo Metta , Anna Monreale , Salvatore Rinzivillo , Fabio Pinelli

With the adoption of machine learning into routine clinical practice comes the need for Explainable AI methods tailored to medical applications. Shapley values have sparked wide interest for locally explaining models. Here, we demonstrate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-02 Lucile Ter-Minassian , Sahra Ghalebikesabi , Karla Diaz-Ordaz , Chris Holmes

The recent boom of linear forecasting models questions the ongoing passion for architectural modifications of Transformer-based forecasters. These forecasters leverage Transformers to model the global dependencies over temporal tokens of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-15 Yong Liu , Tengge Hu , Haoran Zhang , Haixu Wu , Shiyu Wang , Lintao Ma , Mingsheng Long

Transformers have shown great power in time series forecasting due to their global-range modeling ability. However, their performance can degenerate terribly on non-stationary real-world data in which the joint distribution changes over…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-27 Yong Liu , Haixu Wu , Jianmin Wang , Mingsheng Long

Many important questions about a model cannot be answered just by explaining how much each feature contributes to its output. To answer a broader set of questions, we generalize a popular, mathematically well-grounded explanation technique,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-16 Dillon Bowen , Lyle Ungar