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A trustworthy machine learning model should be accurate as well as explainable. Understanding why a model makes a certain decision defines the notion of explainability. While various flavors of explainability have been well-studied in…

Transformer-based models have become state-of-the-art tools in various machine learning tasks, including time series classification, yet their complexity makes understanding their internal decision-making challenging. Existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-27 Matīss Kalnāre , Sofoklis Kitharidis , Thomas Bäck , Niki van Stein

Multivariate time-series models achieve strong predictive performance in healthcare, industry, energy, and finance, but how they combine cross-variable interactions with temporal dynamics remains unclear. SHapley Additive exPlanations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-13 Jinwoong Kim , Sangjin Park

Time series data is a key element of big data analytics, commonly found in domains such as finance, healthcare, climate forecasting, and transportation. In large scale real world settings, such data is often high dimensional and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-14 Younghwi Kim , Dohee Kim , Joongrock Kim , Sunghyun Sim

Time series forecasting is a crucial challenge with significant applications in areas such as weather prediction, stock market analysis, and scientific simulations. This paper introduces an embedded decomposed transformer, 'EDformer', for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-18 Sanjay Chakraborty , Ibrahim Delibasoglu , Fredrik Heintz

Explaining AI systems is fundamental both to the development of high performing models and to the trust placed in them by their users. The Shapley framework for explainability has strength in its general applicability combined with its…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-21 Christopher Frye , Colin Rowat , Ilya Feige

Time series forecasting is crucial for many fields, such as disaster warning, weather prediction, and energy consumption. The Transformer-based models are considered to have revolutionized the field of sequence modeling. However, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-01 Junlong Tong , Liping Xie , Wankou Yang , Kanjian Zhang

When using machine learning techniques in decision-making processes, the interpretability of the models is important. In the present paper, we adopted the Shapley additive explanation (SHAP), which is based on fair profit allocation among…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-03 Yasunobu Nohara , Koutarou Matsumoto , Hidehisa Soejima , Naoki Nakashima

This paper presents an approach integrating explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques with adaptive learning to enhance energy consumption prediction models, with a focus on handling data distribution shifts. Leveraging SHAP…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-08 Tobias Clement , Hung Truong Thanh Nguyen , Nils Kemmerzell , Mohamed Abdelaal , Davor Stjelja

Understanding why a model makes a certain prediction can be as crucial as the prediction's accuracy in many applications. However, the highest accuracy for large modern datasets is often achieved by complex models that even experts struggle…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-11-28 Scott Lundberg , Su-In Lee

Understanding predictions made by Machine Learning models is critical in many applications. In this work, we investigate the performance of two methods for explaining tree-based models- Tree Interpreter (TI) and SHapley Additive…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-10-15 Pulkit Sharma , Shezan Rohinton Mirzan , Apurva Bhandari , Anish Pimpley , Abhiram Eswaran , Soundar Srinivasan , Liqun Shao

Tree-based models have been successfully applied to a wide variety of tasks, including time series forecasting. They are increasingly in demand and widely accepted because of their comparatively high level of interpretability. However, many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-03 Matthias Jakobs , Amal Saadallah

There has been a recent surge of interest in time series modeling using the Transformer architecture. However, forecasting multivariate time series with Transformer presents a unique challenge as it requires modeling both temporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-04 Yu-Hsiang Lan , Eric K. Oermann

SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) has become a popular method to attribute the prediction of a machine learning model on an input to its features. One main challenge of SHAP is the computation time. An exact computation of Shapley values…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-06 Linwei Hu , Ke Wang

Financial forecasting plays an important role in making informed decisions for financial stakeholders, specifically in the stock exchange market. In a traditional setting, investors commonly rely on the equity research department for…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-07-23 Sahar Arshad , Seemab Latif , Ahmad Salman , Rabia Latif

Recurrent Neural Networks were, until recently, one of the best ways to capture the timely dependencies in sequences. However, with the introduction of the Transformer, it has been proven that an architecture with only attention-mechanisms…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-19 Radostin Cholakov , Todor Kolev

We propose an efficient design of Transformer-based models for multivariate time series forecasting and self-supervised representation learning. It is based on two key components: (i) segmentation of time series into subseries-level patches…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-07 Yuqi Nie , Nam H. Nguyen , Phanwadee Sinthong , Jayant Kalagnanam

SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanation) values are one of the leading tools for interpreting machine learning models, with strong theoretical guarantees (consistency, local accuracy) and a wide availability of implementations and use cases.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-28 Jilei Yang

Patch-wise Transformer based time series forecasting achieves superior accuracy. However, this superiority relies heavily on intricate model design with massive parameters, rendering both training and inference expensive, thus preventing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-22 Meng Wang , Jintao Yang , Bin Yang , Hui Li , Tongxin Gong , Bo Yang , Jiangtao Cui

Transformers for time series forecasting mainly model time series from limited or fixed scales, making it challenging to capture different characteristics spanning various scales. We propose Pathformer, a multi-scale Transformer with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-17 Peng Chen , Yingying Zhang , Yunyao Cheng , Yang Shu , Yihang Wang , Qingsong Wen , Bin Yang , Chenjuan Guo