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Predicting the outcomes of quantum measurements is a cornerstone of quantum information theory and a key resource for quantum technologies. Here, we introduce a comprehensive framework for quantifying the predictability of measurements on a…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-01-28 Dennis I. Martínez-Moreno , Miguel Castillo-Celeita , Diego G. Bussandri

The mean objective cost of uncertainty (MOCU) quantifies the performance cost of using an operator that is optimal across an uncertainty class of systems as opposed to using an operator that is optimal for a particular system. MOCU-based…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2018-05-04 Shahin Boluki , Xiaoning Qian , Edward R. Dougherty

As stakeholders and policy makers increasingly rely upon quantitative predictions from advanced computational models, a problem of fundamental importance is the quantification and reduction of uncertainties in both model inputs and output…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-01-26 Scott Walsh

The introduction of the Segment Anything Model (SAM) has paved the way for numerous semantic segmentation applications. For several tasks, quantifying the uncertainty of SAM is of particular interest. However, the ambiguous nature of the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-07-30 Timo Kaiser , Thomas Norrenbrock , Bodo Rosenhahn

We analyze an ensemble-based approach for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in atomistic neural networks. This method generates an epistemic uncertainty signal without requiring changes to the underlying multi-headed regression neural network…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-11-21 Idan Fonea , Amir Peles , Sivan Niv , Goren Gordon , Amir Natan

We derive a universal performance limit for coherent quantum control in the presence of modeled and unmodeled uncertainties. For any target unitary $W$ that is implementable in the absence of error, we prove that the worst-case (and hence…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-07-14 Robert L. Kosut , Daniel A. Lidar , Herschel Rabitz

Inverse problems aim to determine model parameters of a mathematical problem from given observational data. Neural networks can provide an efficient tool to solve these problems. In the context of Bayesian inverse problems, Uncertainty…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-09-16 Andrea Tonini , Tan Bui-Thanh , Francesco Regazzoni , Luca Dede' , Alfio Quarteroni

With increasing share of renewables in power generation mix, system operators would need to run Optimal Power Flow (OPF) problems closer to real-time to better manage uncertainty. Given that OPF is an expensive optimization problem to…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-12-22 Alex Robson , Mahdi Jamei , Cozmin Ududec , Letif Mones

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is crucial in machine learning, yet most (axiomatic) studies of uncertainty measures focus on classification, leaving a gap in regression settings with limited formal justification and evaluations. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-19 Christopher Bülte , Yusuf Sale , Timo Löhr , Paul Hofman , Gitta Kutyniok , Eyke Hüllermeier

This study aims to comprehensively investigate the deep ensemble approach, an approximate Bayesian inference, in the multi-output regression task for predicting the aerodynamic performance of a missile configuration. To this end, the effect…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-27 Sunwoong Yang , Kwanjung Yee

A trust-region algorithm is presented for finding approximate minimizers of smooth unconstrained functions whose values and derivatives are subject to random noise. It is shown that, under suitable probabilistic assumptions, the new method…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-01-03 S. Bellavia , G. Gurioli , B. Morini , Ph. L. Toint

The calibration of rheological parameters in the modeling of complex flows of non-Newtonian fluids can be a daunting task. In this paper we demonstrate how the framework of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) can be used to improve the…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2023-07-11 Aricia Rinkens , Clemens V. Verhoosel , Nick O. Jaensson

To mitigate dissipative effects from environmental interactions and efficiently stabilize quantum states, time-optimal control has emerged as an effective strategy for open quantum systems. This paper extends the framework by incorporating…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-08-25 Yunyan Lee , Ian R. Petersen , Daoyi Dong

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for safe deployment of generative AI models such as large language models (LLMs), especially in high stakes applications. Conformal prediction (CP) offers a principled uncertainty quantification…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-09 Sima Noorani , Shayan Kiyani , George Pappas , Hamed Hassani

This paper investigates the problem of efficient constrained global optimization of hybrid models that are a composition of a known white-box function and an expensive multi-output black-box function subject to noisy observations, which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-31 Congwen Lu , Joel A. Paulson

Providing generalization guarantees for stochastic optimization algorithms remains a key challenge in learning theory. Recently, numerous works demonstrated the impact of the geometric properties of optimization trajectories on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-23 Mario Tuci , Lennart Bastian , Benjamin Dupuis , Nassir Navab , Tolga Birdal , Umut Şimşekli

As large language models are increasingly deployed for clinical text, ensuring they can reliably signal their own uncertainty becomes critical. Most existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods are designed for open-domain generation…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Bushi Xiao , Sarvesh Soni , Daisy Zhe Wang

How can we quantify uncertainty if our favorite computational tool - be it a numerical, a statistical, or a machine learning approach, or just any computer model - provides single-valued output only? In this article, we introduce the Easy…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-25 Eva-Maria Walz , Alexander Henzi , Johanna Ziegel , Tilmann Gneiting

This paper proposes a new robust optimization (RO) formulation namely the RO under objective functional uncertainty (ObRO). The ObRO adopts a min-max structure where the inner problem finds the worst-case objective function in a continuous…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-19 Yue Song , Yuxi Lu , Gang Li , Kairui Feng , Qi Liu

This paper presents the Safe Sequential Quadratically Constrained Quadratic Programming (SS-QCQP) algorithm, a first-order method for smooth inequality-constrained nonconvex optimization that guarantees feasibility at every iteration. The…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-11-26 Jiarui Wang , Mahyar Fazlyab