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More than ever, today we are left with the abundance of molecular data outpaced by the advancements of the phylogenomic methods. Especially in the case of presence of many genes over a set of species under the phylogeny question, more…

Applications · Statistics 2021-11-29 Ali Amiryousefi

We derive a general formula for computing the expected first return time of a random walk on a finite graph. Using this framework, we calculate the expected first return time in various settings over bounded rectangular grids with different…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-06 Nan An

The time of the first occurrence of a threshold crossing event in a stochastic process, known as the first passage time, is of interest in many areas of sciences and engineering. Conventionally, there is an implicit assumption that the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-11-24 Aanjaneya Kumar , Aniket Zodage , M. S. Santhanam

Consideration is given to the three different analytical methods for the computation of upper bounds for the rate of convergence to the limiting regime of one specific class of (in)homogeneous continuous-time Markov chains. This class is…

Computing the stationary distributions of a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) involves solving a set of linear equations. In most cases of interest, the number of equations is infinite or too large, and the equations cannot be solved…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-08-25 Juan Kuntz , Philipp Thomas , Guy-Bart Stan , Mauricio Barahona

In this study, we consider sequences drawn from time-homogeneous Markov chains and introduce a novel approach for estimating first hitting-time distributions to specified terminal states. Our method- ology is based on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-19 Mikael Escobar-Bach , Alexandre Popier , Malo Sahin

For continuous-time Markov chains we prove that, depending on the notion of effective affinity $F$, the probability of an edge current to ever become negative is either $1$ if $F< 0$ else $\sim \exp - F$. The result generalizes a ``noria''…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-03-13 Matteo Polettini , Izaak Neri

We derive a thermodynamic uncertainty relation (TUR) for first-passage times (FPTs) on continuous time Markov chains. The TUR utilizes the entropy production coming from bidirectional transitions, and the net flux coming from unidirectional…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-08-11 Arnab Pal , Shlomi Reuveni , Saar Rahav

We give computable bounds on the rate of convergence of the transition probabilities to the stationary distribution for a certain class of geometrically ergodic Markov chains. Our results are different from earlier estimates of Meyn and…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Peter H. Baxendale

Using ideas borrowed from topological dynamics and ergodic theory we introduce topological and metric versions of the recurrence property for general Markov chains. The main question of interest here is how large is the set of recurrent…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-23 Michael Blank

In this article, we investigate the condensation phenomena for a class of nonreversible zero-range processes on a fixed finite set. By establishing a novel inequality bounding the capacity between two sets, and by developing a robust…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-02-20 Insuk Seo

We propose a novel Markov chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) method for reverse engineering the topological structure of stochastic reaction networks, a notoriously challenging problem that is relevant in many modern areas of research, like…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-08 Daniel F. Linder , Grzegorz A. Rempala

Consider a sequence $(\eta^N(t) :t\ge 0)$ of continuous-time, irreducible Markov chains evolving on a fixed finite set $E$, indexed by a parameter $N$. Denote by $R_N(\eta,\xi)$ the jump rates of the Markov chain $\eta^N_t$, and assume that…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-12-22 C. Landim , T. Xu

The mean first-passage time (MFPT) is one standard measure for the reaction time in thermally activated barrier-crossing processes. While the relationship between MFPTs and phenomenological rate coefficients is known for systems that…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-03-12 Qingyuan Zhou , Roland R. Netz , Benjamin A. Dalton

For predicting the kinetics of nucleic acid reactions, continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) are widely used. The rate of a reaction can be obtained through the mean first passage time (MFPT) of its CTMC. However, a typical issue in CTMCs…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2021-09-23 Sedigheh Zolaktaf , Frits Dannenberg , Mark Schmidt , Anne Condon , Erik Winfree

Extensions of Kemeny's constant, as derived for irreducible finite Markov chains in discrete time, to Markov renewal processes and Markov chains in continuous time are discussed. Three alternative Kemeny's functions and their variants are…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-09-17 Jeffrey J Hunter

We present analytical results for the distribution of first return (FR) times of non-backtracking random walks (NBWs) on undirected configuration model networks consisting of $N$ nodes with degree distribution $P(k)$. We focus on the case…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-12-15 Dor Lev-Ari , Ido Tishby , Ofer Biham , Eytan Katzav , Diego Krapf

A central task in many applications is reasoning about processes that change in a continuous time. The mathematical framework of Continuous Time Markov Processes provides the basic foundations for modeling such systems. Recently, Nodelman…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-07-02 Tal El-Hay , Nir Friedman , Daphne Koller , Raz Kupferman

In Markov networks, measurement blackouts with unknown frequency compromise observations such that thermodynamic quantities can no longer be inferred reliably. In particular, the observed currents neither discern equilibrium from…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-11-19 Alexander M. Maier , Benjamin Häsler , Udo Seifert

In this paper we study the long term evolution of a continuous time Markov chain formed by two interacting birth-and-death processes. The interaction between the processes is modelled by transition rates which are functions with suitable…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-03-23 Mikhail Menshikov , Vadim Shcherbakov