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Dropout is used as a practical tool to obtain uncertainty estimates in large vision models and reinforcement learning (RL) tasks. But to obtain well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, a grid-search over the dropout probabilities is necessary…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-05-23 Yarin Gal , Jiri Hron , Alex Kendall

Understanding decisions made by neural networks is key for the deployment of intelligent systems in real world applications. However, the opaque decision making process of these systems is a disadvantage where interpretability is essential.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-12 Kai Fischer , Jonas Schneider

Convolutional neural network (CNN) has achieved unprecedented success in image super-resolution tasks in recent years. However, the network's performance depends on the distribution of the training sets and degrades on out-of-distribution…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-05-20 Aupendu Kar , Prabir Kumar Biswas

Deep neural networks have become the gold-standard approach for the automated segmentation of 3D medical images. Their full acceptance by clinicians remains however hampered by the lack of intelligible uncertainty assessment of the provided…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-09-23 Benjamin Lambert , Florence Forbes , Senan Doyle , Alan Tucholka , Michel Dojat

Monte Carlo (MC) dropout is a simple and efficient ensembling method that can improve the accuracy and confidence calibration of high-capacity deep neural network models. However, MC dropout is not as effective as more compute-intensive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-10 Zhilu Zhang , Vianne R. Gao , Mert R. Sabuncu

Quantification of uncertainty is one of the most promising approaches to establish safe machine learning. Despite its importance, it is far from being generally solved, especially for neural networks. One of the most commonly used…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-11 Joachim Sicking , Maram Akila , Maximilian Pintz , Tim Wirtz , Asja Fischer , Stefan Wrobel

Bayesian Neural Networks (BayesNNs) have demonstrated their capability of providing calibrated prediction for safety-critical applications such as medical imaging and autonomous driving. However, the high algorithmic complexity and the poor…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-15 Hongxiang Fan , Hao Chen , Liam Castelli , Zhiqiang Que , He Li , Kenneth Long , Wayne Luk

We propose an efficient way to output better calibrated uncertainty scores from neural networks. The Distilled Dropout Network (DDN) makes standard (non-Bayesian) neural networks more introspective by adding a new training loss which…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-09-28 Corina Gurau , Alex Bewley , Ingmar Posner

Uncertainty quantification for deep learning is a challenging open problem. Bayesian statistics offer a mathematically grounded framework to reason about uncertainties; however, approximate posteriors for modern neural networks still…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-23 Nicolas Brosse , Carlos Riquelme , Alice Martin , Sylvain Gelly , Éric Moulines

Estimating the predictive uncertainty of a Bayesian learning model is critical in various decision-making problems, e.g., reinforcement learning, detecting adversarial attack, self-driving car. As the model posterior is almost always…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-16 Yufei Cui , Wuguannan Yao , Qiao Li , Antoni B. Chan , Chun Jason Xue

The re-emergence of mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs), which kill hundreds of thousands of people each year, has been attributed to increased human population, migration, and environmental changes. Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-11-01 Gereziher Adhane , Mohammad Mahdi Dehshibi , David Masip

Calibrated estimates of uncertainty are critical for many real-world computer vision applications of deep learning. While there are several widely-used uncertainty estimation methods, dropout inference stands out for its simplicity and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-11-09 Yichen Shen , Zhilu Zhang , Mert R. Sabuncu , Lin Sun

The inaccuracy of neural network models on inputs that do not stem from the training data distribution is both problematic and at times unrecognized. Model uncertainty estimation can address this issue, where uncertainty estimates are often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-14 Siddhartha Jain , Ge Liu , Jonas Mueller , David Gifford

We consider the problem of uncertainty estimation in the context of (non-Bayesian) deep neural classification. In this context, all known methods are based on extracting uncertainty signals from a trained network optimized to solve the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-25 Yonatan Geifman , Guy Uziel , Ran El-Yaniv

Reliable uncertainty quantification on RUL prediction is crucial for informative decision-making in predictive maintenance. In this context, we assess some of the latest developments in the field of uncertainty quantification for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-10 Luis Basora , Arthur Viens , Manuel Arias Chao , Xavier Olive

Neural networks predictions are unreliable when the input sample is out of the training distribution or corrupted by noise. Being able to detect such failures automatically is fundamental to integrate deep learning algorithms into robotics.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-02-18 Antonio Loquercio , Mattia Segù , Davide Scaramuzza

We present a sampling-free approach for computing the epistemic uncertainty of a neural network. Epistemic uncertainty is an important quantity for the deployment of deep neural networks in safety-critical applications, since it represents…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-04 Janis Postels , Francesco Ferroni , Huseyin Coskun , Nassir Navab , Federico Tombari

The quantification of uncertainty is important for the adoption of machine learning, especially to reject out-of-distribution (OOD) data back to human experts for review. Yet progress has been slow, as a balance must be struck between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-12 Derek Everett , Andre T. Nguyen , Luke E. Richards , Edward Raff

Deploying deep learning models in safety-critical applications remains a very challenging task, mandating the provision of assurances for the dependable operation of these models. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods estimate the model's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-23 Daniel Bethell , Simos Gerasimou , Radu Calinescu

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-08 Dennis Ulmer , Christian Hardmeier , Jes Frellsen