Related papers: Correcting exponentiality test for binned earthqua…
The complete part of the earthquake frequency-magnitude distribution (FMD), above completeness magnitude mc, is well described by the Gutenberg-Richter law. The parameter mc however varies in space due to the seismic network configuration,…
The rapid proliferation of deep-learning-based detection and association methods has greatly expanded automatically generated earthquake catalogs, but has also introduced false detections, mis-associated arrivals, and poorly constrained…
This paper proposes new specification tests for conditional models with discrete responses, which are key to apply efficient maximum likelihood methods, to obtain consistent estimates of partial effects and to get appropriate predictions of…
Bayesian model selection commonly relies on Laplace approximation or the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), which assume that the effective model dimension equals the number of parameters. Singular learning theory replaces this…
A procedure based on a Mixture Density Model for correcting experimental data for distortions due to finite resolution and limited detector acceptance is presented. Addressing the case that the solution is known to be non-negative, in the…
We present a novel approach to estimating discrete distributions with (potentially) infinite support in the total variation metric. In a departure from the established paradigm, we make no structural assumptions whatsoever on the sampling…
We propose a frequentist testing procedure that maintains a defined coverage and is optimal in the sense that it gives maximal power to detect deviations from a null hypothesis when the alternative to the null hypothesis is sampled from a…
This work presents a novel and effective method for fitting multidimensional ellipsoids to scattered data in the contamination of noise and outliers. We approach the problem as a Bayesian parameter estimate process and maximize the…
Within the performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework, the fragility model plays a pivotal role. Such a model represents the probability that the engineering demand parameter (EDP) exceeds a certain safety threshold given a…
In some misspecified settings, the posterior distribution in Bayesian statistics may lead to inconsistent estimates. To fix this issue, it has been suggested to replace the likelihood by a pseudo-likelihood, that is the exponential of a…
This paper studies high-dimensional M-estimation in the proportional asymptotic regime (p/n -> gamma > 0) when the noise distribution has infinite variance. For noise with regularly-varying tails of index alpha in (1,2), we establish that…
Forecasting the full distribution of the number of earthquakes is revealed to be inherently superior to forecasting their mean. Forecasting the full distribution of earthquake numbers is also shown to yield robust projections in the…
Shallow seismic sources excite Rayleigh wave ground motion with azimuthally dependent radiation patterns. We place binary hypothesis tests on theoretical models of such radiation patterns to screen cylindrically symmetric sources (like…
From the perspective of data reduction, the notions of minimal sufficient and complete statistics together play an important role in determining optimal statistics (estimators). The classical notion of sufficiency and completeness are not…
The origin and formation of stellar-mass binary black holes remains an open question that can be addressed by precise measurements of the binary and orbital parameters from their gravitational-wave signal. Such binaries are expected to…
The classical concept of bounded completeness and its relation to sufficiency and ancillarity play a fundamental role in unbiased estimation, unbiased testing, and the validity of inference in the presence of nuisance parameters. In this…
We propose that the widely observed and universal Gutenberg-Richter relation is a mathematical consequence of the critical branching nature of earthquake process in a brittle fracture environment. These arguments, though preliminary, are…
A test of uniformity on [0,1] is developed for the setting of a single observation recorded with sufficient precision. Although consistency against general alternatives is not attainable with only one draw in the classical large-sample…
Binary measurements arise naturally in a variety of statistical and engineering applications. They may be inherent to the problem---e.g., in determining the relationship between genetics and the presence or absence of a disease---or they…
Any periodic variations of earthquake occurrence rates in response to small, known, periodic stress variations provide important opportunities to learn about the earthquake nucleation process. Yet, reliable detection of earthquake…