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We study the classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the spread of an infectious disease. In this stochastic process, there are two competing mechanism: infection and recovery. Susceptible individuals may contract the disease…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-05-08 E. Ben-Naim , P. L. Krapivsky

In this paper we analyze so-called Parisian ruin probability that happens when surplus process stays below zero longer than fixed amount of time $\zeta>0$. We focus on general spectrally negative L\'{e}vy insurance risk process. For this…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-04-21 Irmina Czarna , Zbigniew Palmowski

We study the asymptotic behaviour of the survival probability of a multi-type branching processes in random environment. The class of processes we consider corresponds, in the one-dimensional situation, to the intermediately subcritical…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-04-01 Vladimir Vatutin , Elena Dyakonova

We consider the problem of robust polynomial regression, where one receives samples $(x_i, y_i)$ that are usually within $\sigma$ of a polynomial $y = p(x)$, but have a $\rho$ chance of being arbitrary adversarial outliers. Previously, it…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2017-08-11 Daniel Kane , Sushrut Karmalkar , Eric Price

We study p-adic counterparts of stable distributions, that is limit distributions for sequences of normalized sums of independent identically distributed p-adic-valued random variables. In contrast to the classical case, non-degenerate…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Anatoly N. Kochubei

Using the annealed approach we investigate the asymptotic behavior of the survival probability of a critical multitype branching process evolving in i.i.d. random environment. We show under rather general assumptions on the form of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-12-12 Vladimir A. Vatutin , Elena E. Dyakonova

We derive a risk lower bound in estimating the threshold parameter without knowing whether the threshold regression model is continuous or not. The bound goes to zero as the sample size $ n $ grows only at the cube root rate. Motivated by…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-03-02 Javier Hidalgo , Heejun Lee , Jungyoon Lee , Myung Hwan Seo

We consider a model of asexually reproducing individuals with random mutations and selection. The rate of mutations is proportional to the population size, $N$. The mutations may be either beneficial or deleterious. In a paper by Yu,…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-08-20 Michael Kelly

We consider a general method for the approximation of the distribution of a process conditioned to not hit a given set. Existing methods are based on particle system that are failable, in the sense that, in many situations , they are not…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-06-30 William Oçafrain , Denis Villemonais

Diffusion in a linear potential in the presence of position-dependent killing is used to mimic a default process. Different assumptions regarding transport coefficients, initial conditions, and elasticity of the killing measure lead to…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-05-30 Yuri A. Katz

We investigate disorder relevance for the pinning of a renewal when the law of the random environment is in the domain of attraction of a stable law with parameter $\gamma \in (1,2)$. Assuming that the renewal jumps have power-law decay, we…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-12-08 Hubert Lacoin

The problem of reconstructing a sequence of independent and identically distributed symbols from a set of equal size, consecutive, fragments, as well as a dependent reference sequence, is considered. First, in the regime in which the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2023-07-20 Nir Weinberger , Ilan Shomorony

We consider the well-known problem of the computation of the (limiting) time-dependent performance characteristics of one-dimensional continuous-time birth and death processes on $\mathbb{Z}$ with time varying and possible state-dependent…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-10-18 Yacov Satin , Rostislav Razumchik , Alexander Zeifman , Ivan Kovalev

An improved pre-factor for the random coding bound is proved. Specifically, for channels with critical rate not equal to capacity, if a regularity condition is satisfied (resp. not satisfied), then for any $\epsilon >0$ a pre-factor of…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2013-12-25 Yucel Altug , Aaron B. Wagner

The paper is a sketch of systematic presentation of distributional limit theorems and their refinements for compound sums. When analyzing, e.g., ergodic semi-Markov systems with discrete or continuous time, this allows us to separate those…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-04-29 Vsevolod K. Malinovskii

A multi-type branching process is defined as a random tree with labeled vertices, where each vertex produces offspring independently according to the same multivariate probability distribution. We demonstrate that in realizations of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-31 Jochem Hoogendijk , Ivan Kryven , Rik Versendaal

In this paper we prove the following renewal-type limit theorem. Given an irrational $\alpha$ in (0,1) and R>0, let $q_{n_R}$ be the first denominator of the convergents of $\alpha$ which exceeds R. The main result in the paper is that the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2007-10-08 Yakov G. Sinai , Corinna Ulcigrai

We are interested in the recursive model $(Y_n, \, n\ge 0)$ studied by Collet, Eckmann, Glaser and Martin [9] and by Derrida and Retaux [12]. We prove that at criticality, the probability ${\bf P}(Y_n>0)$ behaves like $n^{-2 + o(1)}$ as $n$…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-08-13 Xinxing Chen , Yueyun Hu , Zhan Shi

In queueing theory, Lorden's inequality can be used for bounds estimation of the moments of backward and forward renewal times. Two random variables called backwards renewal time and forward renewal time for this process are defined.…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-08-27 Elmira Yu. Kalimulina , Galina A. Zverkina

We consider the contact process with dormancy, where wake-up times follow a renewal process. Without infection between dormant individuals, we show that the process under certain conditions grows at most logarithmically. On the other hand,…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-06 Noemi Kurt , Michel Reitmeier , András Tóbiás