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Sepsis remains one of the most complex and heterogeneous syndromes in intensive care, characterized by diverse physiological trajectories and variable responses to treatment. While deep learning models perform well in the early prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-01 Vincent Lemaire , Nédra Meloulli , Pierre Jaquet

Additive smooth models, such as Generalized additive models (GAMs) of location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS), are a popular choice for modeling experimental data. However, software available to fit such models is usually not tailored…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-17 Joshua Krause , Jelmer P. Borst , Jacolien van Rij

Despite the massive investments in information security technologies and research over the past decades, the information security industry is still immature. In particular, the prioritization of remediation efforts within vulnerability…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2019-08-15 Jay Jacobs , Sasha Romanosky , Benjamin Edwards , Michael Roytman , Idris Adjerid

Enhancing seismic fragility and risk assessment of nuclear power plants relies on accurate prediction of reactor building responses to seismic hazards, which can be further improved through dynamic analysis of high-fidelity finite element…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-27 Taro Yaoyama , Sangwon Lee , Minoru Matsubara , Kenzo Kodera , Takeshi Ugata , Tatsuya Itoi

On 1 August 2009, the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) launched a prospective and comparative earthquake predictability experiment in Italy. The goal of the CSEP-Italy experiment is to test earthquake…

Geophysics · Physics 2015-03-13 M. J. Werner , J. D. Zechar , W. Marzocchi , S. Wiemer

Epistemic uncertainty in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is commonly addressed through a logic-tree framework that combines weighted alternative models to characterize the range of plausible hazard outcomes. Implicit in this…

Geophysics · Physics 2026-03-03 Davide Zaccagnino , Didier Sornette

The Himalayan region, including Nepal, is prone to frequent and large earthquakes. Accurate forecasting of these earthquakes is crucial for minimizing loss of life and damage to infrastructure. In this study, we propose various time-scaled…

Applications · Statistics 2025-08-07 Agniva Das , Muralidharan K

We introduce the Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment (EFE), a real-time initiative designed to test the predictability of volcanic eruptions through a transparent, physics-based framework. The experiment is inspired by the…

In this paper, we introduce eipy--an open-source Python package for developing effective, multi-modal heterogeneous ensembles for classification. eipy simultaneously provides both a rigorous, and user-friendly framework for comparing and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-11 Jamie J. R. Bennett , Aviad Susman , Yan Chak Li , Gaurav Pandey

Intelligent assistive technologies are increasingly recognized as critical daily-use enablers for people with disabilities and age-related functional decline. Longitudinal studies, curation of quality datasets, live monitoring in activities…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-01-21 Maxim Yudayev , Juha Carlon , Diwas Lamsal , Vayalet Stefanova , Benjamin Filtjens

Hospitals struggle to predict critical outcomes. Traditional early warning systems, like NEWS and MEWS, rely on static variables and fixed thresholds, limiting their adaptability, accuracy, and personalization. We previously developed the…

As machine learning systems are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains such as criminal justice, finance, and healthcare, the demand for interpretable and trustworthy models has intensified. Despite the proliferation of local…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 James Afful

As foundation models grow rapidly in capability and deployment, evaluating their scientific understanding becomes increasingly critical. Existing science benchmarks have made progress towards broad Range, wide Reach, and high Rigor, yet…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-01 Junying Wang , Zicheng Zhang , Yijin Guo , Farong Wen , Ye Shen , Yingji Liang , Yalun Wu , Wenzhe Li , Chunyi Li , Zijian Chen , Qi Jia , Guangtao Zhai

Earthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change in large earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method was developed using observable seismic data, in which probabilities of future large earthquakes…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-06-21 John B. Rundle , Geoffrey Fox , Andrea Donnellan , Lisa Grant Ludwig

No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. These are primarily based on the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-01-29 James R. Holliday , Kazuyoshi Z. Nanjo , Kristy F. Tiampo , John B. Rundle , Donald L. Turcotte

Accurate weather forecasting is essential for socioeconomic activities. While data-driven forecasting demonstrates superior predictive capabilities over traditional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) with reduced computational demands, its…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-12-12 Congyi Nai , Xi Chen , Shangshang Yang , Yuan Liang , Ziniu Xiao , Baoxiang Pan

We present a novel probabilistic programming framework that couples directly to existing large-scale simulators through a cross-platform probabilistic execution protocol, which allows general-purpose inference engines to record and control…

Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a probabilistic nonparametric representation of functions in regression, classification, and other problems. Unfortunately, exact learning with GPs is intractable for large datasets. A variety of approximate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-03-19 Yuan , Qi , Ahmed H. Abdel-Gawad , Thomas P. Minka

Earthquake prediction and seismic hazard assessment remain fundamental challenges in geophysics, with existing machine learning approaches often operating as black boxes that ignore established physical laws. We introduce POSEIDON…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Boris Kriuk , Fedor Kriuk

We develop a probabilistic framework based on the conjunction of states of information between data and model, to jointly retrieve earthquake source parameters and anelastic attenuation factor from inversion of displacement amplitude…

Geophysics · Physics 2019-06-06 Mariano Supino , Gaetano Festa , Aldo Zollo