Related papers: The EEPAS Model Revisited: Statistical Formalism a…
The Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model and its variants effectively capture the space-time clustering of seismicity, setting the standard for earthquake forecasting. Accurate unbiased ETAS calibration is thus crucial. But we…
When a damaging earthquake occurs, immediate information about casualties is critical for time-sensitive decision-making by emergency response and aid agencies in the first hours and days. Systems such as Prompt Assessment of Global…
This article proposes a spatiotemporal point process model that enhances the classical Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model by incorporating a renewal main-shock arrival process, which we term the renewal ETAS (RETAS) model. This…
We present two models for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes in California, to be tested in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The first, time-independent model, modified from Helmstetter et…
Forecast models in statistical seismology are commonly evaluated with log-likelihood scores of the full distribution P(n) of earthquake numbers, yet heavy tails and out-of-range observations can bias model ranking. We develop a tail-aware…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are flexible distributions over functions that enable high-level assumptions about unknown functions to be encoded in a parsimonious, flexible and general way. Although elegant, the application of GPs is limited by…
Stochastic models of point patterns in space and time are widely used to issue forecasts or assess risk, and often they affect societally relevant decisions. We adapt the concept of consistent scoring functions and proper scoring rules,…
Earthquakes are one of the most devastating natural disasters that plague society. A skilled, reliable earthquake forecasting remains the ultimate goal for seismologists. Using the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and conditional…
The ETAS model is widely employed to model the spatio-temporal distribution of earthquakes, generally using spatially invariant parameters. We propose an efficient method for the estimation of spatially varying parameters, using the…
Within the performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework, the fragility model plays a pivotal role. Such a model represents the probability that the engineering demand parameter (EDP) exceeds a certain safety threshold given a…
As black box explanations are increasingly being employed to establish model credibility in high-stakes settings, it is important to ensure that these explanations are accurate and reliable. However, prior work demonstrates that…
Earthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change in large earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method was developed using observable seismic data, in which probabilities of future large earthquakes…
This paper introduces EQShapelets (EarthQuake Shapelets) a time-series shape-based approach embedded in machine learning to autonomously detect earthquakes. It promises to overcome the challenges in the field of seismology related to…
The ETAS models are currently the most popular in the field of earthquake forecasting. The MCMC method is time-consuming and limited by parameter correlation while bringing parameter uncertainty. The INLA-based method "inlabru" solves these…
The reliable statistical characterization of the spatial and temporal properties of large earthquakes occurrence is one of the most debated issues in seismic hazard assessment, due to the unavoidably limited observations from past events.…
Long period (LP) earthquakes are common at active volcanoes, and are ubiquitous at persistently active andesitic and dacitic subduction zone volcanoes. They provide critical information regarding the state of volcanic unrest, and their…
High-energy physics phenomenology often requires linking multiple computational tools to evaluate observables, likelihoods, and experimental constraints across nontrivial parameter spaces. In this work, we introduce Jarvis-HEP, a…
Partially-observed time series (POTS) is ubiquitous in real-world applications, yet most existing toolchains separate missing-value handling from downstream learning, which limits reproducibility and overall performance. This tutorial…
Currently, one of the best performing and most popular earthquake forecasting models rely on the working hypothesis that: "locations of past background earthquakes reveal the probable location of future seismicity". As an alternative, we…
Bayesian methods are increasingly being applied to parameterize mechanistic process models used in environmental prediction and forecasting. In particular, models describing ecosystem dynamics with multiple states that are linear and…