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State estimation in multi-layer turbulent flow fields with only a single layer of partial observation remains a challenging yet practically important task. Applications include inferring the state of the deep ocean by exploiting surface…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2025-09-30 Zhongrui Wang , Nan Chen , Di Qi

This work addresses the problem of learning the dynamics of high-dimensional probability densities over time using unlabeled samples, without assuming access to trajectory information. We introduce two-parameter flows that learn only…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Paul Schwerdtner , Tobias Blickhan , Benjamin Peherstorfer

Accurately quantifying air-sea fluxes is important for understanding air-sea interactions and improving coupled weather and climate systems. This study introduces a probabilistic framework to represent the highly variable nature of air-sea…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-01-30 Jiarong Wu , Pavel Perezhogin , David John Gagne , Brandon Reichl , Aneesh C. Subramanian , Elizabeth Thompson , Laure Zanna

We present a Bayesian non-parametric way of inferring stochastic differential equations for both regression tasks and continuous-time dynamical modelling. The work has high emphasis on the stochastic part of the differential equation, also…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-29 Martin Jørgensen , Marc Peter Deisenroth , Hugh Salimbeni

Data-driven predictive control methods based on the Willems' fundamental lemma have shown great success in recent years. These approaches use receding horizon predictive control with nonparametric data-driven predictors instead of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-12-06 Mingzhou Yin , Andrea Iannelli , Roy S. Smith

While diffusion models can successfully generate data and make predictions, they are predominantly designed for static images. We propose an approach for efficiently training diffusion models for probabilistic spatiotemporal forecasting,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-12 Salva Rühling Cachay , Bo Zhao , Hailey Joren , Rose Yu

Inspired by spatiotemporal observations from satellites of the trajectories of objects drifting near the surface of the ocean in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's `Global Drifter Program', this paper develops data-driven…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2018-10-19 François Gay-Balmaz , Darryl D. Holm

Data-driven turbulence modeling is a newly emerged research area in thermal hydraulics simulation of nuclear power plant (NPP). The most common CFD method used in NPP thermal hydraulics simulation is Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS)…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2020-05-04 Yangmo Zhu , Nam Dinh

Building on recent advances in scientific machine learning and generative modeling for computational fluid dynamics, we propose a conditional score-based diffusion model designed for multi-scenarios fluid flow prediction. Our model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-02 Wilfried Genuist , Éric Savin , Filippo Gatti , Didier Clouteau

In this paper we introduce a new technique for depicting the phase portrait of stochastic differential equations. Following previous work for deterministic systems, we represent the phase space by means of a generalization of the method of…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-06-01 Francisco Balibrea-Iniesta , Carlos Lopesino , Stephen Wiggins , Ana M. Mancho

Many problems in the geophysical sciences demand the ability to calibrate the parameters and predict the time evolution of complex dynamical models using sequentially-collected data. Here we introduce a general methodology for the joint…

Computation · Statistics 2018-12-12 Sara Pérez-Vieites , Inés P. Mariño , Joaquín Míguez

We study a variance reduction strategy based on control variables for simulating the averaged macroscopic behavior of a stochastic slow-fast system. We assume that this averaged behavior can be written in terms of a few slow degrees of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-09-16 Ward Melis , Giovanni Samaey

Complex chaotic dynamics, seen in natural and industrial systems like turbulent flows and weather patterns, often span vast spatial domains with interactions across scales. Accurately capturing these features requires a high-dimensional…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2024-10-03 C. Ricardo Constante-Amores , Alec J. Linot , Michael D. Graham

A computational strategy based on large deviation theory (LDT) is used to study the anomalous statistical features of turbulent surface waves propagating past an abrupt depth change created via a step in the bottom topography. The dynamics…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2024-06-12 Di Qi , Eric Vanden-Eijnden

The integration of physical relationships into stochastic models is of major interest e.g. in data assimilation. Here, a multivariate Gaussian random field formulation is introduced, which represents the differential relations of the…

Applications · Statistics 2018-02-14 Rüdiger Hewer , Petra Friederichs , Andreas Hense , Martin Schlather

The stochastic variational approach for geophysical fluid dynamics was introduced by Holm (Proc Roy Soc A, 2015) as a framework for deriving stochastic parameterisations for unresolved scales. This paper applies the variational stochastic…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2022-09-16 Colin Cotter , Dan Crisan , Darryl D. Holm , Wei Pan , Igor Shevchenko

Models for heteroskedastic data are relevant in a wide variety of applications ranging from financial time series to environmental statistics. However, the topic of modeling the variance function conditionally has not seen near as much…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-30 Paul A. Parker , Scott H. Holan , Skye A. Wills

Patterns and nonlinear waves, such as spots, stripes, and rotating spirals, arise prominently in many natural processes and in reaction-diffusion models. Our goal is to compute boundaries between parameter regions with different prevailing…

Pattern Formation and Solitons · Physics 2025-03-11 Wenjun Zhao , Samuel Maffa , Björn Sandstede

Recent advances in data-driven modeling have shown that diffusion models can successfully generate synthetic Lagrangian trajectories in turbulent flows. Building on this progress, we extend the method to the joint generation of pairs of…

In spatially extended systems, it is common to find latent variables that are hard, or even impossible, to measure with acceptable precision, but are crucially important for the proper description of the dynamics. This substantially…

Numerical Analysis · Computer Science 2019-08-28 Patrick A. K. Reinbold , Roman O. Grigoriev