Related papers: Volatility time series modeling by single-qubit qu…
This paper introduces novel volatility diffusion models to account for the stylized facts of high-frequency financial data such as volatility clustering, intra-day U-shape, and leverage effect. For example, the daily integrated volatility…
In this article, by using composite asymmetric least squares (CALS) and empirical likelihood, we propose a two-step procedure to estimate the conditional value at risk (VaR) and conditional expected shortfall (ES) for the GARCH series.…
We conduct an empirical study using the quantile-based correlation function to uncover the temporal dependencies in financial time series. The study uses intraday data for the S\&P 500 stocks from the New York Stock Exchange. After…
Accurate prediction of financial market volatility is critical for risk management, derivatives pricing, and investment strategy. In this study, we propose a multitude of regime-switching methods to improve the prediction of S&P 500…
The ARCH process (R. F. Engle, 1982) constitutes a paradigmatic generator of stochastic time series with time-dependent variance like it appears on a wide broad of systems besides economics in which ARCH was born. Although the ARCH process…
Variational quantum circuits are used in quantum machine learning and variational quantum simulation tasks. Designing good variational circuits or predicting how well they perform for given learning or optimization tasks is still unclear.…
This paper presents a novel approach to stochastic volatility (SV) modeling by utilizing nonparametric techniques that enhance our ability to capture the volatility of financial time series data, with a particular emphasis on the…
We propose a heterogeneous simultaneous graphical dynamic linear model (H-SGDLM), which extends the standard SGDLM framework to incorporate a heterogeneous autoregressive realised volatility (HAR-RV) model. This novel approach creates a…
Price range contains important information about the asset volatility, and has long been considered an important indicator for it. In this paper, we propose to jointly model the [low, high] price range as a random interval and introduce an…
It is well known that highly volatile control laws, while theoretically optimal for certain systems, are undesirable from an engineering perspective, being generally deleterious to the controlled system. In this article we are concerned…
Temporal Graph Learning (TGL) is crucial for capturing the evolving nature of stock markets. Traditional methods often ignore the interplay between dynamic temporal changes and static relational structures between stocks. To address this…
We show that recurrent quantum reservoir computers (QRCs) and their recurrence-free architectures (RF-QRCs) are robust tools for learning and forecasting chaotic dynamics from time-series data. First, we formulate and interpret quantum…
This paper captures irregularities in financial time series data, particularly stock prices, in the presence of COVID-19 shock. We conjectured that jumps and irregularities are embedded in stock data due to the pandemic shock, which brings…
Volatility is a natural risk measure in finance as it quantifies the variation of stock prices. A frequently considered problem in mathematical finance is to forecast different estimates of volatility. What makes it promising to use deep…
We develop a novel observation-driven model for high-frequency prices. We account for irregularly spaced observations, simultaneous transactions, discreteness of prices, and market microstructure noise. The relation between trade durations…
We develop a non-parametric multivariate time series model that remains agnostic on the precise relationship between a (possibly) large set of macroeconomic time series and their lagged values. The main building block of our model is a…
Variational quantum algorithms (VQAs) are leading strategies for using near-term quantum devices, with a well-studied bottleneck being their trainability. Standard expectation-value objectives with expressive circuits frequently encounter…
We analyze numerically the performance of Quantum Reservoir Computing (QRC) for statistical and financial problems. We use a reservoir composed of two superconducting islands coupled via their charge degrees of freedom. The key non-linear…
Quantifying both historic and future volatility is key in portfolio risk management. This note presents and compares estimation strategies for volatility estimation in an estimation universe consisting on 28 629 unique companies from…
We develop and implement two realizations of quantum graph neural networks (QGNN), applied to the task of particle interaction simulation. The first QGNN is a speculative quantum-classical hybrid learning model that relies on the ability to…