Related papers: Volatility time series modeling by single-qubit qu…
In the highly volatile and uncertain global financial markets, traditional quantitative trading models relying on statistical modeling or empirical rules often fail to adapt to dynamic market changes and black swan events due to rigid…
All computing devices, including quantum computers, must exhibit that for a given input, an output is produced in accordance with the program. The outputs generated by quantum computers that fulfill these requirements are not temporally…
Standard quantitative models of the stock market predict a log-normal distribution for stock returns (Bachelier 1900, Osborne 1959), but it is recognised (Fama 1965) that empirical data, in comparison with a Gaussian, exhibit leptokurtosis…
Time-series forecasting is essential for strategic planning and resource allocation. In this work, we explore two quantum-based approaches for time-series forecasting. The first approach utilizes a Parameterized Quantum Circuit (PQC) model.…
A multi-factor extension of the Hobson and Rogers (HR) model, incorporating a quadratic variance function (QHR model), is proposed and analysed. The QHR model allows for greater flexibility in defining the moving average filter while…
This paper advances the local projections (LP) method by addressing its inefficiency in high-frequency economic and financial data with volatility clustering. We incorporate a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity…
In this paper, we propose the realized Hyperbolic GARCH model for the joint-dynamics of lowfrequency returns and realized measures that generalizes the realized GARCH model of Hansen et al.(2012) as well as the FLoGARCH model introduced by…
Parameterized quantum circuits can be used as quantum neural networks and have the potential to outperform their classical counterparts when trained for addressing learning problems. To date, much of the results on their performance on…
For a given time horizon DT, this article explores the relationship between the realized volatility (the volatility that will occur between t and t+DT), the implied volatility (corresponding to at-the-money option with expiry at t+DT), and…
There are various metrics for financial risk, such as value at risk (VaR), expected shortfall, expected/unexpected loss, etc. When estimating these metrics, it was very common to assume Gaussian distribution for the asset returns, which may…
We consider the well-studied problem of predicting the time-varying covariance matrix of a vector of financial returns. Popular methods range from simple predictors like rolling window or exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) to more…
Multiple linear regression assumes an imperative role in supervised machine learning. In 2009, Harrow et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 103, 150502 (2009)] showed that their HHL algorithm can be used to sample the solution of a linear system…
We model the dynamics of the cryptocurrency (CC) asset class via a stochastic volatility with correlated jumps (SVCJ) model with rolling-window parameter estimates. By analyzing the time-series of parameters, stylized patterns are…
We consider the viability of a modularised mechanistic online machine learning framework to learn signals in low-frequency financial time series data. The framework is proved on daily sampled closing time-series data from JSE equity…
We study tail risk dynamics in high-frequency financial markets and their connection with trading activity and market uncertainty. We introduce a dynamic extreme value regression model accommodating both stationary and local unit-root…
The existing publications demonstrate that the limit order book data is useful in predicting short-term volatility in stock markets. Since stocks are not independent, changes on one stock can also impact other related stocks. In this paper,…
Stochastic linearization is a method used in Quasilinear Control (QLC) to replace a nonlinearity by an equivalent gain and a bias, utilizing the statistical properties of random inputs. In this paper, the theory of stochastic linearization…
In Gatheral et al. 2018, first posted in 2014, volatility is characterized by fractional behavior with a Hurst exponent $H < 0.5$, challenging traditional views of volatility dynamics. Gatheral et al. demonstrated this using realized…
We extend the application and test the performance of a recently introduced volatility prediction framework encompassing LSTM and rough volatility. Our asset class of interest is cryptocurrencies, at the beginning of the "crypto-winter" in…
Accurate volatility forecasts are vital in modern finance for risk management, portfolio allocation, and strategic decision-making. However, existing methods face key limitations. Fully multivariate models, while comprehensive, are…