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Here we propose and implement a generalized mathematical model to find the time evolution of population in infectious diseases and apply the model to study the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Our model at the core is a non-local generalization of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-05-01 Saumyak Mukherjee , Sayantan Mondal , Biman Bagchi

Fractional-order SIR models have become increasingly popular in the literature in recent years, however unlike the standard SIR model, they often lack a derivation from an underlying stochastic process. Here we derive a fractional-order…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2016-03-31 Christopher N Angstmann , Bruce I Henry , Anna V McGann

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a great catastrophe that upended human lives and caused millions of deaths all over the world. The rapid spread of the virus, with its early-stage exponential growth and subsequent 'waves', caught many medical…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-05-31 Anne V. Ginzburg , Valeriy V. Ginzburg , Julia O. Ginzburg , Ana Garcia Arias , Leela Rakesh

We consider a susceptible, infected, removed (SIR) system where the transmission rate may be temporarily reduced for a fixed amount of time. We show that in order to minimize the total number of fatalities, the transmission rate should be…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-07-20 Yuanyuan Feng , Gautam Iyer , Lei Li

The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model has successfully mimicked the propagation of such airborne diseases as influenza A (H1N1). Although the SIR model has recently been studied in a multilayer networks configuration, in almost all…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-07-16 L. G. Alvarez Zuzek , H. E. Stanley , L. A. Braunstein

Calibration of a SIR (Susceptibles-Infected-Recovered) model with official international data for the COVID-19 pandemics provides a good example of the difficulties inherent the solution of inverse problems. Inverse modeling is set up in a…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-06-09 Mauro Giudici , Alessandro Comunian , Romina Gaburro

This paper analyses the optimal control of infectious disease propagation using a classic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model characterised by permanent immunity and the absence of available vaccines. The control is performed over a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-06-12 Rocío Balderrama , Mariana Inés Prieto , Constanza Sánchez de la Vega , Federico Vazquez

We are currently facing a highly critical case of a world-wide pandemic. The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2, a.k.a. COVID-19) has proved to be extremely contagious and the original outbreak from Asia has now spread to all continents. This…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-06-26 Priyanka , Vicky Verma

We consider Markovian susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) dynamics on time-invariant weighted contact networks where the infection and removal processes are Poisson and where network links may be directed or undirected. We prove that a…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-12-19 Kieran J. Sharkey , Istvan Z. Kiss , Robert R. Wilkinson , Peter L. Simon

We consider the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model on a Euclidean network in one dimension in which nodes at a distance $l$ are connected with probability $P(l) \propto l^{-\delta}$ in addition to nearest neighbors. The…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-07-04 Abdul Khaleque , Parongama Sen

We formulate a generalized susceptible exposed infectious recovered (SEIR) model on a graph, describing the population dynamics of an open crowded place with an arbitrary topology. As a sample calculation, we discuss three simple cases,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-12-18 Andrea Nava , Alessandro Papa , Marco Rossi , Domenico Giuliano

We study a simple realistic model for describing the diffusion of an infectious disease on a population of individuals. The dynamics is governed by a single functional delay differential equation, which, in the case of a large population,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-09-28 Luca Dell'Anna

Compartmental models, especially the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, have long been used to understand the behaviour of various diseases. Allowing parameters, such as the transmission rate, to be time-dependent functions makes it…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-27 Son Luu , Edward Susko , Lam Si Tung Ho

We propose a stochastic SIR model, specified as a system of stochastic differential equations, to analyse the data of the Italian COVID-19 epidemic, taking also into account the under-detection of infected and recovered individuals in the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-02-22 Sara Pasquali , Antonio Pievatolo , Antonella Bodini , Fabrizio Ruggeri

We propose an SEIR-type meta-population model to simulate and monitor the Covid-19 epidemic evolution. The basic model consists of seven compartments, namely susceptible (S), exposed (E), three infective classes, recovered (R), and deceased…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-11-18 Vinicius V. L. Albani , Roberto M. Velho , Jorge P. Zubelli

Social distancing strategies have been adopted by governments to manage the COVID-19 pandemic, since the first outbreak began. However, further epidemic waves keep out the return of economic and social activities to their standard levels of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-06-07 J. E. Sereno , A. D' Jorge , A. Ferramosca , E. A. Hernandez-Vargas , A. H. Gonzalez

Let S,I and R be susceptible, infected and recovered populations in a city affected by an epidemic. The SIR model of Lee, Liu, Tembine, Li and Osher, \emph{SIAM J. Appl. Math.},~81, 190--207, 2021 of the spatiotemoral spread of epidemics is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-01-05 Michael V. Klibanov , Jingzhi Li , Zhipeng Yang

Unsupervised medical anomaly detection is severely limited by the scarcity of normal training samples. Existing methods typically train dedicated models for each dataset or disease, requiring hundreds of normal images per task and lacking…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-06 Ning Zhu

A pandemic is the spread of a disease across large regions, and can have devastating costs to the society in terms of health, economic and social. As such, the study of effective pandemic mitigation strategies can yield significant positive…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-10-02 Ari Gestetner , Buser Say

We consider a Susceptible-Infective-Recovered (SIR) model, where the mechanism for the renewal of susceptibles is demographic, on a ring with next nearest neighbour interactions, and a family of correlated pair approximations (CPA),…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-06-04 Jerome Benoit , Ana Nunes , Margarida Telo da Gama