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The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model as well as its generalizations are extensively used for the study of the spread of infectious diseases, and for the understanding of the dynamical evolution of epidemics. From SIR type…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-09-02 Tiberiu Harko , Man Kwong Mak

In this paper, we conduct mathematical and numerical analyses to address the following crucial questions for COVID-19: (Q1) Is it possible to contain COVID-19? (Q2) When will be the peak and the end of the epidemic? (Q3) How do the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-09-22 Yi-Cheng Chen , Ping-En Lu , Cheng-Shang Chang , Tzu-Hsuan Liu

The non-population conserving SIR (SIR-NC) model to describe the spread of infections in a community is proposed and studied. Unlike the standard SIR model, SIR-NC does not assume population conservation. Although similar in form to the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-11-06 Vivek S. Borkar , D. Manjunath

The SIR pandemic model suffers from an unrealistic assumption: The rate of removal from the infectious class of individuals is assumed to be proportional to the number of infectious individuals. This means that a change in the rate of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-02-23 Paul A. Reiser

We revisit the classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model and one of its nonlocal variations recently developed in \cite{Guan}. We introduce several new approaches to derive exact analytical solutions in the classical…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2021-06-24 Li , Guan , Dong Li , Ke Wang , Kun Zhao

We consider a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model. Through the use of a normal form coordinate transform, we are able to analytically derive the stochastic center manifold along with the…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2015-05-13 Eric Forgoston , Lora Billings , Ira B. Schwartz

We study a discrete Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the spread of infectious disease on a homogeneous tree and the limit behavior of the model in the case when the tree vertex degree tends to infinity. We obtain the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-07-08 Alexander Gairat , Vadim Shcherbakov

In this manuscript, we develop a mobility-based Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model to elucidate the dynamics of pandemic propagation. While traditional SIR models within the field of epidemiology aptly characterize transitions…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-01-16 Ciana Applegate , Jiaxu Li , Dan Han

The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model is the cornerstone of epidemiological models. However, this specification depends on two parameters only, which implies a lack of flexibility and the difficulty to replicate the volatile…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-11-17 Christian Gourieroux , Yang Lu

This paper seeks to study the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic based on daily published data from Worldometer website, using a time-dependent SIR model. Our findings indicate that this model fits well such data, for different chosen…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-11-28 Rawan H. Madi , Sophie M. Moufawad , Nabil R. Nassif

An integrable discretization of the SIR model with vaccination is proposed. The conserved quantities of the continuous model are inherited to the discrete model through the discretization, since the discretization is based on the…

Exactly Solvable and Integrable Systems · Physics 2023-03-31 Atsushi Nobe

We have derived the governing equations for an SIR model with delay terms in both the infectivity and recovery of the disease. The equations are derived by modelling the dynamics as a continuous time random walk, where individuals move…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-10-14 Christopher N. Angstmann , Stuart-James M. Burney , Anna V. McGann , Zhuang Xu

The current global health emergency triggered by the pandemic COVID-19 is one of the greatest challenges mankind face in this generation. Computational simulations have played an important role to predict the development of the current…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-06-11 Kok Yew Ng , Meei Mei Gui

A class of multiple-timescale asymptotic solutions to the equations of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model is presented for the case of high basic reproduction number, with the inverse of the latter employed as the expansion…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-12-25 Oleg B. Shiryaev

This article describes a simple Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) model fitting with COVID-19 data for the month of march 2020 in New York (NY) state. The model is a classical SIR, but is non-autonomous; the rate of susceptible people…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-06-11 Benjamin Ambrosio , M. A. Aziz-Alaoui

Compartmental models like the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR)\cite{Kermack1927} and its extensions such as the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIRS)\cite{Ottar2020,Ignazio2021,Grimm2021,Paoluzzi2021} are commonly used to model…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-07-14 Kasturi Banerjee , Subhankar Ray , Jayalakshmi Shamanna

In this paper, we introduce a general framework for co-infection as cooperative SIR dynamics. We first solve analytically CGCG model [1] and then the generalized model in symmetric scenarios. We calculate transition points, order parameter,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-07-24 Fatemeh Zarei , Saman Moghimi-Araghi , Fakhteh Ghanbarnejad

The aim of this study is to propose a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model that describes the behaviour of symptomatic, asymptomatic and hospitalized patients of COVID-19 epidemic, including the effect of demographic…

This paper presents a detailed mathematical investigation into the dynamics of COVID-19 infections through extended Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) and Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological models. By…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-05-21 Caleb Traxler , Minh Ton , Nameer Ahmed , Sasha Prostota , Annie Cheng

We have designed a computational model of a virus spread near the outbreak threshold. Using computer simulation we studied the Susceptible - Infected - Recovered (SIR) process where in consequence of a force of habit that is manifested by…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-12-23 Jozef Černák