Related papers: Critical Thresholds in Non-Pharmaceutical Interven…
In fighting infectious diseases posing a global health threat, ranging from influenza to Zika, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI), such as social distancing and face covering, remain mitigation measures public health can resort to.…
In the early stage of an infectious disease outbreak, public health strategies tend to gravitate towards non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) given the time required to develop targeted treatments and vaccines. One of the most common…
A model-based signal processing framework is proposed for pandemic trend forecasting and control, by using non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) at regional and country levels worldwide. The control objective is to prescribe quantifiable…
We consider an age-structured epidemic model with two basic public health interventions: (i) identifying and isolating symptomatic cases, and (ii) tracing and quarantine of the contacts of identified infectives. The dynamics of the infected…
Contact tracing via digital tracking applications installed on mobile phones is an important tool for controlling epidemic spreading. Its effectivity can be quantified by modifying the standard methodology for analyzing percolation and…
A key characteristic of the spread of infectious diseases is their ability to use efficient transmission paths within contact graphs. This enables the pathogen to maximise infection rates and spread within a target population. In this work,…
We study the epidemic source detection problem in contact tracing networks modeled as a graph-constrained maximum likelihood estimation problem using the susceptible-infected model in epidemiology. Based on a snapshot observation of the…
Within a short period of time, COVID-19 grew into a world-wide pandemic. Transmission by pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic viral carriers rendered intervention and containment of the disease extremely challenging. Based on reported infection…
This paper considers a stochastic SIR (susceptible$\to$infective$\to$removed) epidemic model in which individuals may make infectious contacts in two ways, both within `households' (which for ease of exposition are assumed to have equal…
We study the critical effect of an intermittent social distancing strategy on the propagation of epidemics in adaptive complex networks. We characterize the effect of our strategy in the framework of the susceptible-infected-recovered…
To contain the propagation of emerging diseases that are transmissible from human to human, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) aimed at reducing the interactions between humans are usually implemented. One example of the latter kind of…
Epidemic outbreaks are an important healthcare challenge, especially in developing countries where they represent one of the major causes of mortality. Approaches that can rapidly target subpopulations for surveillance and control are…
This study investigates the influence of different types of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on epidemic progression using SIR compartmental models. We analyze the optimization of two distinct targets: the final epidemic size and the…
The epidemic threshold of a social system is the ratio of infection and recovery rate above which a disease spreading in it becomes an epidemic. In the absence of pharmaceutical interventions (i.e. vaccines), the only way to control a given…
The challenges presented by the COVID-19 epidemic have created a renewed interest in the development of new methods to combat infectious diseases. A prominent property of the SARS-CoV-2 transmission is the significant fraction of…
Drug resistance and strong contacts actually play crucial roles in epidemic spread in complex systems. Nevertheless, neither theoretical model or methodology is proposed to address this. We thus consider an edge-based epidemic spread model…
When effective medical treatment and vaccination are not available, non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, home quarantine and far-reaching shutdown of public life are the only available strategies to prevent the spread…
The paper presents an algorithm for syndromic surveillance of an epidemic outbreak formulated in the context of stochastic nonlinear filtering. The dynamics of the epidemic is modeled using a generalized compartmental epidemiological model…
Contact tracing and quarantine are well established non-pharmaceutical epidemic control tools. The paper aims to clarify the impact of these measures in COVID-19 epidemic. A new deterministic model is introduced (SEIRQ: susceptible,…
Infectious diseases that spread silently through asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic infections represent a challenge for policy makers. A traditional way of achieving isolation of silent infectors from the community is through forward contact…