Related papers: Critical Thresholds in Non-Pharmaceutical Interven…
Contact tracing is one of the most important tools for preventing the spread of infectious diseases, but as the experience of COVID-19 showed, it is also next-to-impossible to implement when the disease is spreading rapidly. We show how to…
Introduction. It is well known that social contact patterns differ from country to country. This variation coincides with significant socioeconomic heterogeneity that complicates the design of effective non-pharmaceutical interventions.…
We consider here an extended SIR model, including several features of the recent COVID-19 outbreak: in particular the infected and recovered individuals can either be detected (+) or undetected (-) and we also integrate an intensive care…
We investigate adaptive strategies to robustly and optimally control the COVID-19 pandemic via social distancing measures based on the example of Germany. Our goal is to minimize the number of fatalities over the course of two years without…
Despite extensive work on the interplay between traffic dynamics and epidemic spreading, the control of epidemic spreading by routing strategies has not received adequate attention. In this paper, we study the impact of efficient routing…
Social distancing has been enacted in order to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Like many authors, we adopt the classic epidemic SIR model, where the infection rate is the control variable. Its differential flatness property yields ele…
The spread of infectious diseases is often influenced by human mobility across different geographical regions. Although numerous studies have investigated how diseases like SARS and COVID-19 spread from China to various global locations,…
The COVID-19 pandemic has proved to be one of the most disruptive public health emergencies in recent memory. Among non-pharmaceutical interventions, social distancing and lockdown measures are some of the most common tools employed by…
The frequent emergence of diseases with the potential to become threats at local and global scales, such as influenza A(H1N1), SARS, MERS, and recently COVID-19 disease, makes it crucial to keep designing models of disease propagation and…
The basic reproduction number, $R_0$, is a well-known quantifier of epidemic spread. However, a class of existing methods for estimating $R_0$ from incidence data early in the epidemic can lead to an over-estimation of this quantity. In…
The spread of an infection on a real-world social network is determined by the interplay of two processes: the dynamics of the network, whose structure changes over time according to the encounters between individuals, and the dynamics on…
Human interactions and mobility shape epidemic dynamics by facilitating disease outbreaks and their spatial spread across regions. Traditional models often isolate commuting and random mobility as separate behaviors, focusing either on…
Major advances in public health have resulted from disease prevention. However, prevention of a new infectious disease by vaccination or pharmaceuticals is made difficult by the slow process of vaccine and drug development. We propose an…
We study a class of individual-based, fixed-population size epidemic models under general assumptions, e.g., heterogeneous contact rates encapsulating changes in behavior and/or enforcement of control measures. We show that the…
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, has been declared a pandemic by the WHO. The structures of social contact critically determine the spread of the infection and, in the absence of vaccines, the control of these structures…
This paper considers the problem of designing non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) strategies, such as masking and social distancing, to slow the spread of a viral epidemic. We formulate the problem of jointly minimizing the infection…
In this study, we present a new epidemiological model, with contamination from confirmed and unreported. We also compute equilibria and study their stability without intervention strategies. Optimal control theory has proven to be a…
In this article we propose a compartmental model for the dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). We take into account the presence of asymptomatic infections and the main policies that have been adopted so far to contain the…
Vaccination and outbreak monitoring are essential tools for preventing and minimizing outbreaks of infectious diseases. Targeted strategies, where the individuals most important for monitoring or preventing outbreaks are selected for…
Multiple lines of evidence strongly suggest that infection hotspots, where a single individual infects many others, play a key role in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. However, most of the existing epidemiological models fail to…