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Related papers: Renewal Hawkes Processes: Expectations and Applica…

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It is our intention to provide via fractional calculus a generalization of the pure and compound Poisson processes, which are known to play a fundamental role in renewal theory, without and with reward, respectively. We first recall the…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Francesco Mainardi , Rudolf Gorenflo , Enrico Scalas

Most work on query optimization has concentrated on loop-free queries. However, data science and machine learning workloads today typically involve recursive or iterative computation. In this work, we propose a novel framework for…

Databases · Computer Science 2022-02-22 Yisu Remy Wang , Mahmoud Abo Khamis , Hung Q. Ngo , Reinhard Pichler , Dan Suciu

The spread of invasive species to new areas threatens the stability of ecosystems and causes major economic losses in agriculture and forestry. We propose a novel approach to minimizing the spread of an invasive species given a limited…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-12-13 Amrita Gupta , Mehrdad Farajtabar , Bistra Dilkina , Hongyuan Zha

This paper considers online optimization for a system that performs a sequence of back-to-back tasks. Each task can be processed in one of multiple processing modes that affect the duration of the task, the reward earned, and an additional…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-01-17 Michael J. Neely

We show that the jumps correlation matrix of a multivariate Hawkes process is related to the Hawkes kernel matrix through a system of Wiener-Hopf integral equations. A Wiener-Hopf argument allows one to prove that this system (in which the…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-16 Emmanuel Bacry , Jean-Francois Muzy

In a discrete-time setting, we consider an arrival process $\left\{\xi_n \, \middle| \, n = 1, 2, \ldots \right\}$, which models the occurrence of events, and a corresponding point process $\left\{H_n \, \middle| \, n = 1, 2, \ldots…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-10 Utpal Jyoti Deba Sarma , Dharmaraja Selvamuthu

Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPPs) arise naturally in medical, social, commercial, and financial domains. However, existing Transformer-based methods mostly inject temporal information only via positional encodings, relying on shared…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-25 Xinzi Tan , Kejian Zhang , Junhan Yu , Doudou Zhou

We define a new model using a Hawkes process as a subordinator in a standard Brownian motion. We demonstrate that this Hawkes subordinated Brownian motion or more succinctly, variance-Hawkes process can be fit to 2018 and 2019 natural gas…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-10-14 Joshua McGillivray , Anatoliy Swishchuk

We propose a new sparse Granger-causal learning framework for temporal event data. We focus on a specific class of point processes called the Hawkes process. We begin by pointing out that most of the existing sparse causal learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-28 Tsuyoshi Idé , Georgios Kollias , Dzung T. Phan , Naoki Abe

Interval-censored data solely records the aggregated counts of events during specific time intervals - such as the number of patients admitted to the hospital or the volume of vehicles passing traffic loop detectors - and not the exact…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-29 Marian-Andrei Rizoiu , Alexander Soen , Shidi Li , Pio Calderon , Leanne Dong , Aditya Krishna Menon , Lexing Xie

In this paper we fill a gap in the literature by providing exact and explicit expressions for the correlation of general Hawkes processes together with its intensity process. Our methodology relies on the Poisson imbedding representation…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-06 Caroline Hillairet , Anthony Reveillac

We propose a new jump-diffusion process, the Heston-Queue-Hawkes (HQH) model, combining the well-known Heston model and the recently introduced Queue-Hawkes (Q-Hawkes) jump process. Like the Hawkes process, the HQH model can capture the…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2023-02-13 Luis A. Souto Arias , Pasquale Cirillo , Cornelis W. Oosterlee

In recent years, mining the knowledge from asynchronous sequences by Hawkes process is a subject worthy of continued attention, and Hawkes processes based on the neural network have gradually become the most hotly researched fields,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-30 Lu-ning Zhang , Jian-wei Liu , Zhi-yan Song , Xin Zuo

Renewal processes are broadly used to model stochastic behavior consisting of isolated events separated by periods of quiescence, whose durations are specified by a given probability law. Here, we identify the minimal sufficient statistic…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-07-19 Sarah Marzen , James P. Crutchfield

Self-exciting processes of Hawkes type have been used to model various phenomena including earthquakes, neural activities, and views of online videos. Studies of temporal networks have revealed that sequences of social interevent times for…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-06-05 Naoki Masuda , Taro Takaguchi , Nobuo Sato , Kazuo Yano

We provide some theoretical extensions and a calibration protocol for our former dynamic optimal execution model. The Hawkes parameters and the propagator are estimated independently on financial data from stocks of the CAC40.…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-30 Aurélien Alfonsi , Pierre Blanc

Univariate marked Hawkes processes are used to model a range of real-world phenomena including earthquake aftershock sequences, contagious disease spread, content diffusion on social media platforms, and order book dynamics. This paper…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-13 Louis Davis , Conor Kresin , Boris Baeumer , Ting Wang

In queueing theory, Lorden's inequality can be used for bounds estimation of the moments of backward and forward renewal times. Two random variables called backwards renewal time and forward renewal time for this process are defined.…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-08-27 Elmira Yu. Kalimulina , Galina A. Zverkina

A multivariate Hawkes process enables self- and cross-excitations through a triggering matrix that behaves like an asymmetrical covariance structure, characterizing pairwise interactions between the event types. Full-rank estimation of all…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-26 Myrl G. Marmarelis , Greg Ver Steeg , Aram Galstyan

We develop a new family of marked point processes by focusing the characteristic properties of marked Hawkes processes exclusively to the space of marks, providing the freedom to specify a different model for the occurrence times. This is…

Applications · Statistics 2022-10-18 Santhosh Narayanan , Ioannis Kosmidis , Petros Dellaportas