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Related papers: Renewal Hawkes Processes: Expectations and Applica…

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In this paper, we propose an extension of the Hawkes process by incorporating a kernel based on the tempered Mittag-Leffler distribution. This is the generalization of the work presented in [10]. We derive analytical results for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-22 Neha Gupta , Aditya Maheshwari

Detecting rare events, those defined to give rise to high impact but have a low probability of occurring, is a challenge in a number of domains including meteorological, environmental, financial and economic. The use of machine learning to…

Applications · Statistics 2022-09-13 Santhosh Narayanan , Carsten Maple , Mark Hooper

Crowdfunding is a powerful tool for individuals or organizations seeking financial support from a vast audience. Despite widespread adoption, managers often lack information about dynamics of their platforms. Hawkes processes have been used…

Applications · Statistics 2024-02-26 Alexandra Djorno , Forrest W. Crawford

We refine previous results concerning the Renewal Contact Processes. We significantly widen the family of distributions for the interarrival times for which the critical value can be shown to be strictly positive. The result now holds for…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-02 Luiz Renato Fontes , Thomas S. Mountford , Daniel Ungaretti , Maria Eulália Vares

We consider a multivariate non-linear Hawkes process in a multi-class setup where particles are organised within two populations of possibly different sizes, such that one of the populations acts excitatory on the system while the other…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-04-07 Mads Bonde Raad , Eva Löcherbach

Hawkes processes are a class of self-exciting point processes that are used to model complex phenomena. While most applications of Hawkes processes assume that event data occurs in continuous-time, the less-studied discrete-time version of…

Applications · Statistics 2023-06-01 Trinnhallen Brisley , Gordon Ross , Daniel Paulin , Jake Easto

We introduce and study renewal processes defined by means of extensions of the standard relaxation equation through ``stretched" non-local operators (of order $\alpha$ and with parameter $\gamma$). In a first case we obtain a generalization…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-02 Luisa Beghin , Nikolai Leonenko , Jayme Vaz

The Hawkes process (HP) has been widely applied to modeling self-exciting events including neuron spikes, earthquakes and tweets. To avoid designing parametric triggering kernel and to be able to quantify the prediction confidence, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-05 Rui Zhang , Christian Walder , Marian-Andrei Rizoiu

We investigate spatio-temporal event analysis using point processes. Inferring the dynamics of event sequences spatiotemporally has many practical applications including crime prediction, social media analysis, and traffic forecasting. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-17 Fatih Ilhan , Suleyman Serdar Kozat

A univariate Hawkes process is a simple point process that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process is given by the sum of a baseline intensity and another term that depends on the entire past history…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-04 Xuefeng Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

We proposed a new generalized model based on the classical Hawkes process with environmental multipliers, which is called an environmentally-adaptive Hawkes (EAH) model. Compared to the classical self-exciting Hawkes process, the EAH model…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-26 Tingnan Gong , Yu Chen , Weiping Zhang

An extension of the Hawkes process, the Marked Hawkes process distinguishes itself by featuring variable jump size across each event, in contrast to the constant jump size observed in a Hawkes process without marks. While extensive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-08 Sobin Joseph , Shashi Jain

A class of discrete renewal processes with super-exponentially decaying inter-arrival distributions coincides with the infinite volume limit of general homogeneous pinning models in their localized phase. Pinning models are statistical…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-06-05 Giambattista Giacomin

We consider renewal stochastic processes generated by non-independent events from the perspective that their basic distribution and associated generating functions obey the statistical-mechanical structure of systems with interacting…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-27 Jorge Velázquez , Alberto Robledo

The neural Hawkes process (Mei & Eisner, 2017) is a generative model of irregularly spaced sequences of discrete events. To handle complex domains with many event types, Mei et al. (2020a) further consider a setting in which each event in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-09 Chenghao Yang , Hongyuan Mei , Jason Eisner

We estimate the general influence functions for spatio-temporal Hawkes processes using a tensor recovery approach by formulating the location dependent influence function that captures the influence of historical events as a tensor kernel.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-30 Heejune Sheen , Xiaonan Zhu , Yao Xie

Hawkes process (HP) is a point process with a conditionally dependent intensity function. This paper defines the tempered fractional Hawkes process (TFHP) by time-changing the HP with an inverse tempered stable subordinator. We obtained…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-17 Neha Gupta , Aditya Maheshwari

Comprehensive benchmarking of clustering algorithms is rendered difficult by two key factors: (i)~the elusiveness of a unique mathematical definition of this unsupervised learning approach and (ii)~dependencies between the generating models…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2022-01-11 Cameron Shand , Richard Allmendinger , Julia Handl , Andrew Webb , John Keane

Classic estimation methods for Hawkes processes rely on the assumption that observed event times are indeed a realisation of a Hawkes process, without considering any potential perturbation of the model. However, in practice, observations…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-21 Anna Bonnet , Felix Cheysson , Miguel Martinez Herrera , Maxime Sangnier

Renewal processes are zero-dimensional processes defined by independent intervals of time between zero crossings of a random walker. We subject renewal processes them to stochastic resetting by setting the position of the random walker to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-03-02 Pascal Grange