Related papers: Calendar Time Local Earthquake Forecasts from Eart…

If we assume that earthquakes are chaotic, and influenced locally then chaos theory suggests that there should be a temporal association between earthquakes in a local region that should be revealed with statistical examination. To date no…

Estimates of seismic wave speeds in the Earth (seismic velocity models) are key input parameters to earthquake simulations for ground motion prediction. Owing to the non-uniqueness of the seismic inverse problem, typically many velocity…

In this paper we present an approach for forecasting the imminent regional seismic activity by using geomagnetic data and Earth tide data. The time periods of seismic activity are the time periods around the Sun-Moon extreme of the diurnal…

We revisit the work of Kilston and Knopoff (1983) to study the correlation of earthquakes with the main lunisolar tidal components in the limited zone of the Southern California region, with a considerably bigger amount of data. By adopting…

We investigate the sequence of great earthquakes over the past century. To examine whether the earthquake record includes temporal clustering, we identify aftershocks and remove those from the record. We focus on the recurrence time,…

We study the asymptotic distribution for the occurrence time of the next large earthquake, by knowing the last large seismic event occurred a long time ago. We prove that, under reasonable conditions, such a distribution is asymptotically…

Any periodic variations of earthquake occurrence rates in response to small, known, periodic stress variations provide important opportunities to learn about the earthquake nucleation process. Yet, reliable detection of earthquake…

We report an exact analysis of a discrete form of the Chakrabarti-Stinchcombe model for earthquakes [Physica A \textbf{270}, 27 (1999)] which considers a pairof dynamically overlapping finite generations of the Cantor set as a prototype of…

This report presents a preliminary analysis of an LSTM neural network designed to predict the accuracy of magnitude estimates computed by Early-est during the first minutes after an earthquake occurs.

Immediately following a disaster event, such as an earthquake, estimates of the damage extent play a key role in informing the coordination of response and recovery efforts. We develop a novel impact estimation tool that leverages a…

With the present study we introduce a fast and robust method to calculate the source displacement spectra of small earthquakes on a local to regional scale. The work is based on the publicly available Qopen method of full envelope inversion…

We propose two methods to calibrate the parameters of the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model based on expectation maximization (EM) while accounting for temporal variation of catalog completeness. The first method allows for…

On 1 August 2009, the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) launched a prospective and comparative earthquake predictability experiment in Italy. The goal of the CSEP-Italy experiment is to test earthquake…

Extending the central concept of recurrence times for a point process to recurrent events in space-time allows us to characterize seismicity as a record breaking process using only spatiotemporal relations among events. Linking record…

Currently, one of the best performing and most popular earthquake forecasting models rely on the working hypothesis that: "locations of past background earthquakes reveal the probable location of future seismicity". As an alternative, we…

The Gutenberg-Richter power law distribution of earthquake sizes is one of the most famous example illustrating self-similarity. It is well-known that the Gutenberg-Richter distribution has to be modified for large seismic moments, due to…

Frequency-magnitude distributions, and their associated uncertainties, are of key importance in statistical seismology. When fitting these distributions, the assumption of Gaussian residuals is invalid since event numbers are both discrete…

We present the "condensation" method that exploits the heterogeneity of the probability distribution functions (PDF) of event locations to improve the spatial information content of seismic catalogs. The method reduces the size of seismic…

The concept of proper time, which is different from universal time, has been introduced into the physics of earthquakes. The global activity of strong earthquakes was chosen as the object of study. We consider the sequence of earthquakes as…

Recent studies have shown that real-valued principal component analysis can be applied to earthquake fault systems for forecasting and prediction. In addition, theoretical analysis indicates that earthquake stresses may obey a wave-like…