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We consider the SEIRS epidemiology model with such features of the COVID-19 outbreak as: abundance of unidentified infected individuals, limited time of immunity and a possibility of vaccination. The control of the pandemic dynamics is…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-03-31 J. Ilnytskyi , T. Patsahan

An interesting inference drawn by some Covid-19 epidemiological models is that there exists a proportion of the population who are not susceptible to infection -- even at the start of the current pandemic. This paper introduces a model of…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2020-09-18 Thomas Parr , Anjali Bhat , Peter Zeidman , Aimee Goel , Alexander J. Billig , Rosalyn Moran , Karl J. Friston

In this paper, we consider an adaptive optimal control problem for an SIR/V epidemic model with human behavioral effects.We develop a model where effective management of infectious diseases are monitored by the means of non pharmaceutical…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-12-09 Nuruzzaman Rahat , Abid Hossain , Muntasir Alam

With the unfolding of the COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical modeling of epidemics has been perceived and used as a central element in understanding, predicting, and governing the pandemic event. However, soon it became clear that long term…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-07-09 Ziqi Wang , Marco Broccardo , Arnaud Mignan , Didier Sornette

While the SARS-CoV-2 keeps spreading world-wide, comparing its evolution across different nations is a timely challenge of both theoretical and practical importance. The large variety of dissimilar and country-dependent epidemiological…

The fast transmission rate of COVID-19 worldwide has made this virus the most important challenge of year 2020. Many mitigation policies have been imposed by the governments at different regional levels (country, state, county, and city) to…

Applications · Statistics 2022-05-04 Yue Bai , Abolfazl Safikhani , George Michailidis

Mathematical modeling and analysis can provide insight on the dynamics of ecosystems which maintain biodiversity in the face of competitive and prey-predator interactions. Of primary interests are the underlying structure and features which…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-01-03 Cameron J. Browne

We have established a novel mathematical model that considers various aspects of the spreading of the virus, including, the transmission based on being in the latent period, environment to human transmission, governmental decisions, and…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2020-08-31 Kamran Soltani , Ghader Rezazadeh

In this study, we address three important challenges related to disease transmissions such as the COVID-19 pandemic, namely, (a) providing an early warning to likely exposed individuals, (b) identifying individuals who are asymptomatic, and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-09-13 Shashanka Ubaru , Lior Horesh , Guy Cohen

We present a rigorously formulated, novel operator-based framework that merges ideas from condensed matter physics, continuum mechanics, and quantum-inspired theory to analyze collective virion behavior in complex environments. By modeling…

Biological Physics · Physics 2025-01-14 Lillian St. Kleess

Infectious diseases are a threat for human health with tremendous impact on our society at large. The recent COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the SARS-CoV-2, is the latest example of a highly infectious disease ravaging the world, since late…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-09-17 Giacomo Cacciapaglia , Corentin Cot , Michele Della Morte , Stefan Hohenegger , Francesco Sannino , Shahram Vatani

The deadly coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has gone out of control globally. Despite much effort by scientists, medical experts, and society in general, the…

Biomolecules · Quantitative Biology 2021-02-02 Kaifu Gao , Rui Wang , Jiahui Chen , Limei Cheng , Jaclyn Frishcosy , Yuta Huzumi , Yuchi Qiu , Tom Schluckbier , Guo-Wei Wei

The COVID-19 pandemic response relied heavily on statistical and machine learning models to predict key outcomes such as case prevalence and fatality rates. These predictions were instrumental in enabling timely public health interventions…

Phenomenological and deterministic models are often used for the estimation of transmission parameters in an epidemic and for the prediction of its growth trajectory. Such analyses are usually based on single peak outbreak dynamics. In…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-01-20 D. P. Mahapatra , S. Triambak

Pandemics, like the 1918 Spanish Influenza and COVID-19, spread through regions of the World in subsequent waves. There is, however, no consensus on the origin of this pattern, which may originate from human behaviour rather than from the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-11-26 Giacomo Cacciapaglia , Corentin Cot , Francesco Sannino

Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. It was first identified in Wuhan, China, and has since spread causing a global pandemic. Various studies have been performed to understand the…

In the wake of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, there has been heightened interest from applied mathematicians in infectious disease modelling. Modelling efforts often focus on predicting whether diseases are likely to be eliminated or, instead,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-01-22 Joshua Looker , Kat S. Rock , Louise Dyson

We present a new technique for rapid modeling and construction of scientifically accurate mesoscale biological models. Resulting 3D models are based on few 2D microscopy scans and the latest knowledge about the biological entity represented…

We develop a stochastic framework for viral population dynamics at the cellular level that explicitly incorporates the replication cycle with random stage durations. The model is formulated as a structured birth-death process coupled with a…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-05-13 Seong Jun Park

In this work, we investigate a VS-EIAR epidemiological model that incorporates vaccinated individuals $\{V_i : i = 1, \ldots, n\}$, where $n \in \mathbb{N}^{*}$. The dynamics of the VS-EIAR model are governed by a system of ordinary…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-07-16 Mamadou Abdoul Diop , Mohammed Elghandouri , Khalil Ezzinbi