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How can we detect traffic disturbances from international flight transportation logs or changes to collaboration dynamics in academic networks? These problems can be formulated as detecting anomalous change points in a dynamic graph.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-16 Shenyang Huang , Jacob Danovitch , Guillaume Rabusseau , Reihaneh Rabbany

We aim to develop a time series modeling methodology tailored to high-dimensional environments, addressing two critical challenges: variable selection from a large pool of candidates, and the detection of structural break points, where the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-04-15 Angelo Milfont , Alvaro Veiga

We propose a new sequential procedure to detect change in the parameters of a process $ X= (X_t)_{t\in \Z}$ belonging to a large class of causal models (such as AR($\infty$), ARCH($\infty$), TARCH($\infty$), ARMA-GARCH processes). The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-02-12 Jean-Marc Bardet , William Chakry Kengne

This paper derives new asymptotic results for the adaptive LASSO estimator in cointegrating regressions, allowing for uncertainty about whether the regressors are exact unit root processes. We study model selection probabilities, estimator…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-13 Karsten Reichold , Ulrike Schneider

As time series data become increasingly prevalent in domains such as manufacturing, IT, and infrastructure monitoring, anomaly detection must adapt to nonstationary environments where statistical properties shift over time. Traditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Muyan Anna Li , Aditi Gautam

We consider the joint estimation of change point locations and the sparsity pattern of the variance covariance matrix, which is assumed to evolve in a piecewise constant manner. By applying Group Fused LASSO and LASSO penalties to the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-14 Ying Lin , Benjamin Poignard

While adaptive sensing has provided improved rates of convergence in sparse regression and classification, results in nonparametric regression have so far been restricted to quite specific classes of functions. In this paper, we describe an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-20 Adam D. Bull

Consider the detection of a sparse change in high-dimensional time-series. We introduce Sparsity Likelihood-based (SL-based) score and the change-points detection procedure in multivariate normal model with general covariance structure.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-30 Jingyan Huang

Diagnosing the changes of structural behaviors using monitoring data is an important objective of structural health monitoring (SHM). The changes in structural behaviors are usually manifested as the feature changes in monitored structural…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-14 Xinyi Lei , Zhicheng Chen , Hui Li , Shiyin Wei

Data-driven damage detection methods achieve damage identification by analyzing changes in damage-sensitive features (DSFs) derived from structural health monitoring (SHM) data. The core reason for their effectiveness lies in the fact that…

Applications · Statistics 2026-01-21 Zhicheng Chen , Wenyu Chen , Xinyi Lei

We consider a change-point detection problem for a simple class of Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs). A continuous-time PDMP is observed in discrete time and through noise, and the aim is to propose a numerical method to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-09-28 Alice Cleynen , Benoîte de Saporta

Due to its low computational cost, Lasso is an attractive regularization method for high-dimensional statistical settings. In this paper, we consider multivariate counting processes depending on an unknown function parameter to be estimated…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-04-08 Niels Richard Hansen , Patricia Reynaud-Bouret , Vincent Rivoirard

This paper discusses change detection in SAR time-series. Firstly, several statistical properties of the coefficient of variation highlight its pertinence for change detection. Then several criteria are proposed. The coefficient of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-05-19 Elise Colin Koeniguer , Jean-Marie Nicolas

We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to simultaneously estimate mean based changepoints in spatially correlated functional time series. Unlike previous methods that assume a shared changepoint at all spatial locations or ignore spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-11 Mengchen Wang , Trevor Harris , Bo Li

It is important to incorporate spatial geographic information into U.S. presidential election analysis, especially for swing states. The state-level analysis also faces significant challenges of limited spatial data availability. To address…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-10 Hao Zeng , Wei Zhong , Xingbai Xu

This study delves into the domain of dynamical systems, specifically the forecasting of dynamical time series defined through an evolution function. Traditional approaches in this area predict the future behavior of dynamical systems by…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-12 Akifumi Okuno , Yuya Morishita , Yoh-ichi Mototake

We propose nonparametric estimators for the second-order central moments of possibly anisotropic spherical random fields, within a functional data analysis context. We consider a measurement framework where each random field among an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-06-28 Alessia Caponera , Julien Fageot , Matthieu Simeoni , Victor M. Panaretos

We present a non-parametric change-point detection approach to detect potentially sparse changes in a time series of high-dimensional observations or non-Euclidean data objects. We target a change in distribution that occurs in a small,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-29 Alan Moore , Lynna Chu , Zhengyuan Zhu

We develop methodology to detect structural breaks in the slope function of a concurrent functional linear regression model for functional time series in $C[0,1]$. Our test is based on a CUSUM process of regressor-weighted OLS residual…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-16 Rupsa Basu , Sven Otto

Change point detection (CPD) aims to locate abrupt property changes in time series data. Recent CPD methods demonstrated the potential of using deep learning techniques, but often lack the ability to identify more subtle changes in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-21 Tim De Ryck , Maarten De Vos , Alexander Bertrand