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We present a Bayesian non-parametric way of inferring stochastic differential equations for both regression tasks and continuous-time dynamical modelling. The work has high emphasis on the stochastic part of the differential equation, also…
This paper addresses the problem of detecting change points in the spectral density of time series, motivated by EEG analysis of seizure patients. Seizures disrupt coherence and functional connectivity, necessitating precise detection.…
We estimate nonparametrically the spatially varying diffusivity of a stochastic heat equation from observations perturbed by additional noise. To that end, we employ a two-step localization procedure, more precisely, we combine local state…
We consider the Cauchy problem for a linear stochastic partial differential equation. By extending the parametrix method for PDEs whose coefficients are only measurable with respect to the time variable, we prove existence, regularity in…
Consider the problem on sequential change-point detection on multiple data streams. We provide the asymptotic lower bounds of the detection delays at all levels of change-point sparsity and we derive a smaller asymptotic lower bound of the…
We discuss nonparametric estimation of the trend coefficient in models governed by a stochastic differential equation driven by a multiplicative stochastic volatility.
Change point detection plays a fundamental role in many real-world applications, where the goal is to analyze and monitor the behaviour of a data stream. In this paper, we study change detection in binary streams. To this end, we use a…
This paper is concerned with the estimation of time-varying networks for high-dimensional nonstationary time series. Two types of dynamic behaviors are considered: structural breaks (i.e., abrupt change points) and smooth changes. To…
This paper proposes new parametric model adequacy tests for possibly nonlinear and nonstationary time series models with noncontinuous data distribution, which is often the case in applied work. In particular, we consider the correct…
This paper is concerned with solutions to a one dimensional linear diffusion equation and their relation to some problems in stochastic control theory. A stochastic variational formula is obtained for the logarithm of the solution to the…
We develop a mixture procedure for multi-sensor systems to monitor data streams for a change-point that causes a gradual degradation to a subset of the streams. Observations are assumed to be initially normal random variables with known…
We investigate the nonlocal behavior of passive tracer dispersion with random stopping at various sites in fluids. This kind of dispersion processes is modeled by an integral partial differential equation, i.e., an advection-diffusion…
A series of recent articles introduced a method to construct stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) which are invariant with respect to the distribution of a given conditioned diffusion. These works are restricted to the case of…
This paper addresses the problem of change-point detection on sequences of high-dimensional and heterogeneous observations, which also possess a periodic temporal structure. Due to the dimensionality problem, when the time between…
This paper develops a unified and computationally efficient method for change-point estimation along the time dimension in a non-stationary spatio-temporal process. By modeling a non-stationary spatio-temporal process as a piecewise…
A martingale framework for concept change detection based on testing data exchangeability was recently proposed (Ho, 2005). In this paper, we describe the proposed change-detection test based on the Doob's Maximal Inequality and show that…
Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are widely used in multivariate time series analysis for describing the short-time dynamics of the data. The reduced-rank VAR models are of particular interest when dealing with high-dimensional and highly…
In multiple change-point problems, different data segments often follow different distributions, for which the changes may occur in the mean, scale or the entire distribution from one segment to another. Without the need to know the number…
Numerical methods for stochastic partial differential equations typically estimate moments of the solution from sampled paths. Instead, we shall directly target the deterministic equations satisfied by the first and second moments, as well…
In this paper we propose a new approach for sequential monitoring of a parameter of a $d$-dimensional time series, which can be estimated by approximately linear functionals of the empirical distribution function. We consider a…