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We propose a new approach, the calibrated nonparametric scan statistic (CNSS), for more accurate detection of anomalous patterns in large-scale, real-world graphs. Scan statistics identify connected subgraphs that are interesting or…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-28 Chunpai Wang , Daniel B. Neill , Feng Chen

Statistically simulated time series of wave parameters are required for many coastal and offshore engineering applications, often at the resolution of approximately one hour. Various studies have relied on autoregressive moving-average…

Applications · Statistics 2018-10-31 Wiebke S. Jäger , Thomas Nagler , Claudia Czado , Robert T. McCall

This thesis focuses on the discovery of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) from noisy and discrete time series. A major challenge is selecting the simplest possible correct model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-08 Andonis Gerardos

In this work, we develop a computational framework to efficiently quantify the temporal exceeding probability of ship responses in a random wave field, i.e., the fraction of time that ship responses exceed a given threshold. In particular,…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2022-06-10 Xianliang Gong , Katerina Siavelis , Zhou Zhang , Yulin Pan

Reinforcement Learning (RL) agents in the real world must satisfy safety constraints in addition to maximizing a reward objective. Model-based RL algorithms hold promise for reducing unsafe real-world actions: they may synthesize policies…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-16 Yecheng Jason Ma , Andrew Shen , Osbert Bastani , Dinesh Jayaraman

Optimal designs minimize the number of experimental runs (samples) needed to accurately estimate model parameters, resulting in algorithms that, for instance, efficiently minimize parameter estimate variance. Governed by knowledge of past…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-03 Nicholas W. Barendregt , Emily G. Webb , Zachary P. Kilpatrick

Augmenting a smooth cost function with an $\ell_1$ penalty allows analysts to efficiently conduct estimation and variable selection simultaneously in sophisticated models and can be efficiently implemented using proximal gradient methods.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-10 Nathan Wycoff , Lisa O. Singh , Ali Arab , Katharine M. Donato

Probabilistic security assessment and real-time dynamic security assessments (DSA) are promising to better handle the risks of system operations. The current methodologies of security assessments may require many time-domain simulations for…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-01-06 Jochen L. Cremer , Goran Strbac

A fundamental problem in modern supervised learning is computing reliable conditional prediction intervals in high-dimensional settings: existing methods often rely on restrictive modelling assumptions, do not scale as predictor dimension…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-24 Daniel Salnikov , Dan Leonte , Kevin Michalewicz

The rapid influx of data-driven models into the industrial sector has been facilitated by the proliferation of sensor technology, enabling the collection of vast quantities of data. However, leveraging these models for failure detection and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-14 Ali Beikmohammadi , Mohammad Hosein Hamian , Neda Khoeyniha , Tony Lindgren , Olof Steinert , Sindri Magnússon

Electricity load forecasting is a necessary capability for power system operators and electricity market participants. The proliferation of local generation, demand response, and electrification of heat and transport are changing the…

This contribution addresses vessel trajectory prediction (VTP), focusing on the evaluation of different deep learning-based approaches. The objective is to assess model performance in diverse traffic complexities and compare the reliability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-21 Zahra Rastin , Kathrin Donandt , Dirk Söffker

Load forecasting is crucial for multiple energy management tasks such as scheduling generation capacity, planning supply and demand, and minimizing energy trade costs. Such relevance has increased even more in recent years due to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-16 Verónica Álvarez , Santiago Mazuelas , José A. Lozano

Reliability updating refers to a problem that integrates Bayesian updating technique with structural reliability analysis and cannot be directly solved by structural reliability methods (SRMs) when it involves equality information. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-19 Xiong Xiao , Zeyu Wang , Quanwang Li

In this paper, we introduce a new causal methodology that accounts for the rarity and frequency of events in observational studies based on their relevance to the underlying problem. Specifically, we propose a direct causal effect metric…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-28 Usef Faghihi , Amir Saki

Industrial processes generate complex data that challenge fault detection systems, often yielding opaque or underwhelming results despite advanced machine learning techniques. This study tackles such difficulties using the Tennessee Eastman…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-29 Pedro Cortes dos Santos , Matheus Becali Rocha , Renato A Krohling

The logistic specification has been used extensively in non-Bayesian statistics to model the dependence of discrete outcomes on the values of specified covariates. Because the likelihood function is globally weakly concave estimation by…

Computation · Statistics 2013-04-17 John Geweke , Garland Durham , Huaxin Xu

Understanding systems by forward and inverse modeling is a recurrent topic of research in many domains of science and engineering. In this context, Monte Carlo methods have been widely used as powerful tools for numerical inference and…

Computation · Statistics 2022-02-14 F. Llorente , L. Martino , D. Delgado , G. Camps-Valls

Rolling bearings are subject to various faults due to its long-time operation under harsh environment, which will lead to unexpected breakdown of machinery system and cause severe accidents. Deep learning methods recently have gained…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-21 Mingxuan Liang , Kai Zhou

Protection equipment is used to prevent damage to induction motor loads by isolating them from power systems in the event of severe faults. Modeling the response of induction motor loads and their protection is vital for power system…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-12-17 Soumya Kundu , Zhigang Chu , Yuan Liu , Yingying Tang , Qiuhua Huang , Daniel James , Yu Zhang , Pavel Etingov , David P. Chassin