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We establish Hoeffding-type concentration inequalities for the low and high tail bounds of sums of exchangeable random variables. Our results exhibit an anti-symmetry in such tail bounds due to the assumption of exchangeability, a…
Heavy-tailed noise is pervasive in modern machine learning applications, arising from data heterogeneity, outliers, and non-stationary stochastic environments. While second-order methods can significantly accelerate convergence in…
By using a probabilistic technique based on the exponential change of measure we find a precise tail asymptotic behavior of some perpetuities with distributions close to the Dickman distribution.
High-probability analysis of stochastic first-order optimization methods under mild assumptions on the noise has been gaining a lot of attention in recent years. Typically, gradient clipping is one of the key algorithmic ingredients to…
We consider the problem of finding the optimal upper bound for the tail probability of a sum of $k$ nonnegative, independent and identically distributed random variables with given mean $x$. For $k=1$ the answer is given by Markov's…
A wide range of natural and social phenomena result in observables whose distributions can be well approximated by a power-law decay. The well-known Hill estimator of the tail exponent provides results which are in many respects superior to…
We consider a Metropolis--Hastings method with proposal $\mathcal{N}(x, hG(x)^{-1})$, where $x$ is the current state, and study its ergodicity properties. We show that suitable choices of $G(x)$ can change these compared to the Random Walk…
We identify an equality between two objects arising from different contexts of mathematical physics: Kahane's Gaussian Multiplicative Chaos ($GMC^\gamma$) on the circle, and the Circular Beta Ensemble $(C\beta E)$ from Random Matrix Theory.…
Although there is an extensive literature on the maxima of Gaussian processes, there are relatively few non-asymptotic bounds on their lower-tail probabilities. The aim of this paper is to develop such a bound, while also allowing for many…
The relationship between a response variable and its covariates can vary significantly, especially in scenarios where covariates take on extremely high or low values. This paper introduces a max-linear tail regression model specifically…
The well-known "Janson's inequality" gives Poisson-like upper bounds for the lower tail probability \Pr(X \le (1-\eps)\E X) when X is the sum of dependent indicator random variables of a special form. We show that, for large deviations,…
We develop sampling methods, which consist of Gaussian invariant versions of random walk Metropolis (RWM), Metropolis adjusted Langevin algorithm (MALA) and second order Hessian or Manifold MALA. Unlike standard RWM and MALA we show that…
According to the Loss Distribution Approach, the operational risk of a bank is determined as 99.9% quantile of the respective loss distribution, covering unexpected severe events. The 99.9% quantile can be considered a tail event. As…
Suppose that $(Z_n)_{n\geq0}$ is a supercritical branching process in independent and identically distributed random environment. The right tail function of the scaled growth rate for $(Z_n)_{n\geq0}$ is studied. The upper bounds for…
In this article, we consider the multiplicative chaos measure associated to the log-correlated random Fourier series, or random wave model, with i.i.d. coefficients taken from a general class of distributions. This measure was shown to be…
This paper studies the Nash equilibrium seeking problem for stochastic games under heavy-tailed noise. The gradient noise is considered to have a finite $\delta$-th moment ($1<\delta\le 2$), which generalizes the Gaussian noise and covers…
In this paper we study the distribution tails and the moments of a condition number which arises in the study of homogeneous systems of linear inequalities. We consider the case where this system is defined by a Gaussian random matrix and…
We consider the tail behavior of random variables $R$ which are solutions of the distributional equation $R\stackrel{d}{=}Q+MR$, where $(Q,M)$ is independent of $R$ and $|M|\le 1$. Goldie and Gr\"{u}bel showed that the tails of $R$ are no…
In this paper, we present a new framework to obtain tail inequalities for sums of random matrices. Compared with existing works, our tail inequalities have the following characteristics: 1) high feasibility--they can be used to study the…
We study the probability distribution of the maximum $M_S $ of a smooth stationary Gaussian field defined on a fractal subset $S$ of $\R^n$. Our main result is the equivalent of the asymptotic behavior of the tail of the distribution…