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Estimating long-term causal effects by combining long-term observational and short-term experimental data is a crucial but challenging problem in many real-world scenarios. In existing methods, several ideal assumptions, e.g. latent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-12 Ruichu Cai , Junjie Wan , Weilin Chen , Zeqin Yang , Zijian Li , Peng Zhen , Jiecheng Guo

Instrumental variable methods are fundamental to causal inference when treatment assignment is confounded by unobserved variables. In this article, we develop a general nonparametric causal framework for identification and learning with…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 Shuyuan Chen , Peng Zhang , Yifan Cui

This paper establishes sufficient conditions for the identification of the marginal treatment effects with multivalued treatments. Our model is based on a multinomial choice model with utility maximization. Our MTE generalizes the MTE…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-30 Toshiki Tsuda

When experimental subjects can interact with each other, the outcome of one individual may be affected by the treatment status of others. In many social science experiments, such spillover effects may occur through multiple networks, for…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-01 Naoki Egami

This paper deals with the problem of evaluating the causal effect using observational data in the presence of an unobserved exposure/ outcome variable, when cause-effect relationships between variables can be described as a directed acyclic…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-06-18 Manabu Kuroki , Zhihong Cai

For settings with a binary treatment and a binary outcome, instrumental variables can be used to construct bounds on a causal treatment effect. With continuous outcomes, meaningful bounds are more difficult to obtain because the domain of…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-03-26 Tao Liu , Joseph W. Hogan

Understanding the factors that trigger or prevent undesirable health outcomes across patient subpopulations is essential for designing targeted interventions. While randomized controlled trials and expert-led patient interviews are standard…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Shishir Adhikari , Guido Muscioni , Mark Shapiro , Plamen Petrov , Elena Zheleva

Causal effects may vary among individuals and can even be of opposite signs. When significant effect heterogeneity exists, the population average causal effect might be uninformative for an individual. Due to the fundamental problem of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-12 Richard Post , Zhuozhao Zhan , Edwin van den Heuvel

This paper explores the estimation of a panel data model with cross-sectional interaction that is flexible both in its approach to specifying the network of connections between cross-sectional units, and in controlling for unobserved…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-11-23 Ayden Higgins , Federico Martellosio

Unmeasured confounding is a key threat to reliable causal inference based on observational studies. Motivated from two powerful natural experiment devices, the instrumental variables and difference-in-differences, we propose a new method…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-09 Ting Ye , Ashkan Ertefaie , James Flory , Sean Hennessy , Dylan S. Small

Many proposals for the identification of causal effects require an instrumental variable that satisfies strong, untestable unconfoundedness and exclusion restriction assumptions. In this paper, we show how one can potentially identify…

Laparoscopic surgery has been shown through a number of randomized trials to be an effective form of treatment for cholecystitis. Given this evidence, one natural question for clinical practice is: does the effectiveness of laparoscopic…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-09 Matteo Bonvini , Zhenghao Zeng , Miaoqing Yu , Edward H. Kennedy , Luke Keele

We consider linear structural equation models with explicitly modelled latent variables. In such models, observed and latent variables solve linear equations including stochastic noise terms. The goal of our work is to identify the direct…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-28 Tom Hochsprung , Nils Sturma , Jakob Runge , Mathias Drton , Andreas Gerhardus

In recent years, the field of causal inference from observational data has emerged rapidly. The literature has focused on (conditional) average causal effect estimation. When (remaining) variability of individual causal effects (ICEs) is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-10 Richard Post , Edwin van den Heuvel

This paper extends the identification results in Nevo and Rosen (2012) to nonparametric models. We derive nonparametric bounds on the average treatment effect when an imperfect instrument is available. As in Nevo and Rosen (2012), we assume…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-01 Kyunghoon Ban , Désiré Kédagni

Causal inference methods based on conditional independence construct Markov equivalent graphs, and cannot be applied to bivariate cases. The approaches based on independence of cause and mechanism state, on the contrary, that causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-04 Nataliya Sokolovska , Pierre-Henri Wuillemin

The hypothesis of homogeneous treatment effects is central to the instrumental variables literature. This assumption signifies that treatment effects are constant across all subjects. It allows to interpret instrumental variable estimates…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-04-17 Jad Beyhum , Jean-Pierre Florens , Elia Lapenta , Ingrid Van Keilegom

Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used for estimating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Under the standard IV model, however, the average treatment effect (ATE) is only partially identifiable. To address this,…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-08 Linbo Wang , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

This paper studies variable selection and post-selection inference for high-dimensional clustered data using marginal-model-based procedures. We show that, when covariates are heterogeneously distributed across clusters, marginal-model…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Shangyuan Ye , Cong Zhang , Ying Chen , Ye Liang , Guanbo Wang

Causal effect estimation in networked systems is central to data-driven decision making. In such settings, interventions on one unit can spill over to others, and in complex physical or social systems, the interaction pathways driving these…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-27 Sadegh Shirani , Mohsen Bayati
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