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The effects of demographic stochasticity in the long term behaviour of endemic infectious diseases have been considered for long as a necessary addition to an underlying deterministic theory. The latter would explain the regular behaviour…
The spreading of evolutionary novelties across populations is the central element of adaptation. Unless population are well-mixed (like bacteria in a shaken test tube), the spreading dynamics not only depends on fitness differences but also…
Bootstrap percolation is an often used model to study the spread of diseases, rumors, and information on sparse random graphs. The percolation process demonstrates a critical value such that the graph is either almost completely affected or…
Understanding the social determinants of preventive behavior is vital for epidemic modelling and effective policy making. Traditional models emphasize imitation or rational trade-offs, but recent evidence highlights the role of social…
Social network analysis is now widely used to investigate the dynamics of infectious disease spread from person to person. Vaccination dramatically disrupts the disease transmission process on a contact network, and indeed, sufficiently…
Most epidemic models assume equal mixing among members of a population. An alternative approach is to model a population as random network in which individuals may have heterogeneous connectivity. This paper builds on previous research by…
We consider a population that experienced a first wave of infections, interrupted by strong, top-down, governmental restrictions and did not develop a significant immunity to prevent a second wave (i.e. resurgence). As restrictions are…
The spread of disease through a physical-contact network and the spread of information about the disease on a communication network are two intimately related dynamical processes. We investigate the asymmetrical interplay between the two…
The size and shape of the region affected by an outbreak is relevant to understand the dynamics of a disease and help to organize future actions to mitigate similar events. A simple extension of the SIR model is considered, where agents…
During epidemic outbreaks, information dissemination enhances individual protection, while social institutions influence the transmission through measures like government interventions, media campaigns, and hospital resource allocation.…
Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number…
We introduce kinetic models to simulate epidemic spread while accounting for individuals' opinions on protective behaviors. Opinion exchanges occur on a social network represented by a graphon, leading to scenarios with or without opinion…
Infectious disease transmission in human populations has a complex two-way interaction with changes in host behaviour. It is increasingly recognised that incorporating adaptive behavioural change into epidemic models is important for…
The duration, type and structure of connections between individuals in real-world populations play a crucial role in how diseases invade and spread. Here, we incorporate the aforementioned heterogeneities into a model by considering a…
While most existing epidemic models focus on the influence of isolated factors, infectious disease transmission is inherently shaped by the complex interplay of multiple interacting elements. To better capture real-world dynamics, it is…
We have designed a computational model of a virus spread near the outbreak threshold. Using computer simulation we studied the Susceptible - Infected - Recovered (SIR) process where in consequence of a force of habit that is manifested by…
We study the diffusion of epidemics on networks that are partitioned into local communities. The gross structure of hierarchical networks of this kind can be described by a quotient graph. The rationale of this approach is that individuals…
One of the popular dynamics on complex networks is the epidemic spreading. An epidemic model describes how infections spread throughout a network. Among the compartmental models used to describe epidemics, the…
Background: Recently developed techniques to study the spread of infectious diseases through networks make assumptions that the initial proportion infected is infinitesimal and the population behavior is static throughout the epidemic. The…
Understanding how epidemics spread in a system is a crucial step to prevent and control outbreaks, with broad implications on the system's functioning, health, and associated costs. This can be achieved by identifying the elements at higher…