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As deep learning models are increasingly deployed in high-risk applications, robust defenses against adversarial attacks and reliable performance guarantees become paramount. Moreover, accuracy alone does not provide sufficient assurance or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Jie Bao , Chuangyin Dang , Rui Luo , Hanwei Zhang , Zhixin Zhou

In online selective conformal inference, data arrives sequentially, and prediction intervals are constructed only when an online selection rule is met. Since online selections may break the exchangeability between the selected test datum…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-24 Yusuf Sale , Aaditya Ramdas

Machine learning models are vulnerable to tiny adversarial input perturbations optimized to cause a very large output error. To measure this vulnerability, we need reliable methods that can find such adversarial perturbations. For image…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-07-15 Levente Halmosi , Bálint Mohos , Márk Jelasity

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method for constructing prediction sets with marginal finite-sample coverage guarantees, making it a suitable framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in safety-critical object…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Christopher Ries , Moussa Kassem Sbeyti , Nicolas Bianco , Nadja Klein

Conformal prediction is a simple and powerful tool that can quantify uncertainty without any distributional assumptions. Many existing methods only address the average coverage guarantee, which is not ideal compared to the stronger…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-21 Xing Han , Ziyang Tang , Joydeep Ghosh , Qiang Liu

Conformal Prediction (CP) quantifies network uncertainty by building a small prediction set with a pre-defined probability that the correct class is within this set. In this study we tackle the problem of CP calibration based on a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-22 Coby Penso , Jacob Goldberger

Conformal Prediction (CP) has proven to be an effective post-hoc method for improving the trustworthiness of neural networks by providing prediction sets with finite-sample guarantees. However, under adversarial attacks, classical conformal…

We consider the problem of constructing distribution-free prediction sets with finite-sample conditional guarantees. Prior work has shown that it is impossible to provide exact conditional coverage universally in finite samples. Thus, most…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-18 Isaac Gibbs , John J. Cherian , Emmanuel J. Candès

Robustness of machine learning models is critical for security related applications, where real-world adversaries are uniquely focused on evading neural network based detectors. Prior work mainly focus on crafting adversarial examples (AEs)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-01 Ecenaz Erdemir , Jeffrey Bickford , Luca Melis , Sergul Aydore

Deep neural networks have achieved remarkable success across a variety of tasks, yet they often suffer from unreliable probability estimates. As a result, they can be overconfident in their predictions. Conformal Prediction (CP) offers a…

Split conformal prediction has recently sparked great interest due to its ability to provide formally guaranteed uncertainty sets or intervals for predictions made by black-box neural models, ensuring a predefined probability of containing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-29 António Farinhas , Chrysoula Zerva , Dennis Ulmer , André F. T. Martins

Conformal prediction (CP) transforms any model's output into prediction sets guaranteed to include (cover) the true label. CP requires exchangeability, a relaxation of the i.i.d. assumption, to obtain a valid distribution-free coverage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-15 Soroush H. Zargarbashi , Aleksandar Bojchevski

In learning problems, the noise inherent to the task at hand hinders the possibility to infer without a certain degree of uncertainty. Quantifying this uncertainty, regardless of its wide use, assumes high relevance for security-sensitive…

We analyze the properties of adversarial training for learning adversarially robust halfspaces in the presence of agnostic label noise. Denoting $\mathsf{OPT}_{p,r}$ as the best robust classification error achieved by a halfspace that is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-20 Difan Zou , Spencer Frei , Quanquan Gu

Traditional conformal prediction methods construct prediction sets such that the true label falls within the set with a user-specified coverage level. However, poorly chosen coverage levels can result in uninformative predictions, either…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-03 Etienne Gauthier , Francis Bach , Michael I. Jordan

Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-15 Etash Guha , Shlok Natarajan , Thomas Möllenhoff , Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan , Eugene Ndiaye

In this work, we highlight and perform a comprehensive study on calibration attacks, a form of adversarial attacks that aim to trap victim models to be heavily miscalibrated without altering their predicted labels, hence endangering the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Stephen Obadinma , Xiaodan Zhu , Hongyu Guo

We give a simple, generic conformal prediction method for sequential prediction that achieves target empirical coverage guarantees against adversarially chosen data. It is computationally lightweight -- comparable to split conformal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-03 Osbert Bastani , Varun Gupta , Christopher Jung , Georgy Noarov , Ramya Ramalingam , Aaron Roth

Autonomous systems increasingly rely on machine learning techniques to transform high-dimensional raw inputs into predictions that are then used for decision-making and control. However, it is often easy to maliciously manipulate such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-07 Jinghan Yang , Hunmin Kim , Wenbin Wan , Naira Hovakimyan , Yevgeniy Vorobeychik

Conformal predictive systems are sets of predictive distributions with theoretical out-of-sample calibration guarantees. The calibration guarantees are typically that the set of predictions contains a forecast distribution whose prediction…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-03 Sam Allen , Enrico Pescara , Johanna Ziegel