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In this paper, we propose ShapTST, a framework that enables time-series transformers to efficiently generate Shapley-value-based explanations alongside predictions in a single forward pass. Shapley values are widely used to evaluate the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-28 Qisen Cheng , Jinming Xing , Chang Xue , Xiaoran Yang

The state-of-the-art in optimal control from timed temporal logic specifications, including Metric Temporal Logic (MTL) and Signal Temporal Logic (STL), is based on Mixed-Integer Convex Programming (MICP). The standard MICP approach is…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-12-03 Vince Kurtz , Hai Lin

Time series forecasters are widely used across various domains. Among them, MLP (multi-layer perceptron)-based forecasters have been proven to be more robust to noise compared to Transformer-based forecasters. However, MLP struggles to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-18 Xiang Ao

We introduce SiamTST, a novel representation learning framework for multivariate time series. SiamTST integrates a Siamese network with attention, channel-independent patching, and normalization techniques to achieve superior performance.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-03 Simen Kristoffersen , Peter Skaar Nordby , Sara Malacarne , Massimiliano Ruocco , Pablo Ortiz

Spatio-temporal traffic forecasting is a core component of intelligent transportation systems, supporting various downstream tasks such as signal control and network-level traffic management. In real-world deployments, forecasting models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Yue Wang , Areg Karapetyan , Djellel Difallah , Samer Madanat

In this paper, we investigate the problem of Model Predictive Control (MPC) of dynamic systems for high-level specifications described by Signal Temporal Logic (STL) formulae. Recent works show that MPC has the great potential in handling…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-11-16 Xinyi Yu , Chuwei Wang , Dingran Yuan , Shaoyuan Li , Xiang Yin

Accurate and computationally-viable representations of clouds and turbulence are a long-standing challenge for climate model development. Traditional parameterizations that crudely but efficiently approximate these processes are a leading…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-01-05 Jerry Lin , Mohamed Aziz Bhouri , Tom Beucler , Sungduk Yu , Michael Pritchard

Irregularly sampled time series forecasting, characterized by non-uniform intervals, is prevalent in practical applications. However, previous research have been focused on regular time series forecasting, typically relying on transformer…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-01 Byunghyun Kim , Jae-Gil Lee

Signal Temporal Logic (STL) is expressive formal language that specifies spatio-temporal requirements in robotics. Its quantitative robustness semantics can be easily integrated with optimization-based control frameworks. However, STL…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Tianhao Wu , Yiwei Lyu

Platform businesses operate on a digital core and their decision making requires high-dimensional accurate forecast streams at different levels of cross-sectional (e.g., geographical regions) and temporal aggregation (e.g., minutes to…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-06-03 Jeroen Rombouts , Marie Ternes , Ines Wilms

Reversible Instance Normalization (RevIN) is a key technique enabling simple linear models to achieve state-of-the-art performance in time series forecasting. While replacing its non-robust statistics with robust counterparts (termed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Fanzhe Fu , Yang Yang

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) with partial likelihoods involving a latent structure often entail an intractable marginalization, thus making inference hard. We propose a novel approach to Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) involving…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-20 Amrith Setlur , Barnabás Póczós

Recent work in time series forecasting has explored reformulating regression as a classification task. By discretizing the continuous target space into bins and predicting over a fixed set of classes, these approaches benefit from more…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-28 Andrei Chernov , Vitaliy Pozdnyakov , Ilya Makarov

Time series forecasting is essential for many practical applications, with the adoption of transformer-based models on the rise due to their impressive performance in NLP and CV. Transformers' key feature, the attention mechanism,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-09 PeiSong Niu , Tian Zhou , Xue Wang , Liang Sun , Rong Jin

Time-series data can represent the behaviors of autonomous systems, such as drones and self-driving cars. The task of binary and multi-class classification for time-series data has become a prominent area of research. Neural networks…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-26 Danyang Li , Roberto Tron

In order to learn the complex features of large spatio-temporal data, models with large parameter sets are often required. However, estimating a large number of parameters is often infeasible due to the computational and memory costs of…

Computation · Statistics 2018-07-02 Matthew Edwards , Stefano Castruccio , Dorit Hammerling

Spatial-temporal forecasting systems play a crucial role in addressing numerous real-world challenges. In this paper, we investigate the potential of addressing spatial-temporal forecasting problems using general time series forecasting…

Probabilistic forecasting of high dimensional multivariate time series is a notoriously challenging task, both in terms of computational burden and distribution modeling. Most previous work either makes simple distribution assumptions or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-27 Nam Nguyen , Brian Quanz

Time series data are prone to noise in various domains, and training samples may contain low-predictability patterns that deviate from the normal data distribution, leading to training instability or convergence to poor local minima.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-19 Xu Zhang , Peng Wang , Yichen Li , Wei Wang

Multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) aims to learn temporal dynamics among variables to forecast future time series. Existing statistical and deep learning-based methods suffer from limited learnable parameters and small-scale…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Chenxi Liu , Qianxiong Xu , Hao Miao , Sun Yang , Lingzheng Zhang , Cheng Long , Ziyue Li , Rui Zhao