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We estimate the general influence functions for spatio-temporal Hawkes processes using a tensor recovery approach by formulating the location dependent influence function that captures the influence of historical events as a tensor kernel.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-30 Heejune Sheen , Xiaonan Zhu , Yao Xie

Point processes are widely used statistical models for continuous-time discrete event data, such as medical records, crime reports, and social network interactions, to capture the influence of historical events on future occurrences. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-13 Xiuyuan Cheng , Tingnan Gong , Yao Xie

In this paper, we consider the sigmoid Gaussian Hawkes process model: the baseline intensity and triggering kernel of Hawkes process are both modeled as the sigmoid transformation of random trajectories drawn from Gaussian processes (GP).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-30 Feng Zhou , Zhidong Li , Xuhui Fan , Yang Wang , Arcot Sowmya , Fang Chen

The theory of affine processes has been recently extended to the framework of stochastic Volterra equations with continuous trajectories. These so-called affine Volterra processes overcome modeling shortcomings of affine processes because…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-15 Alessandro Bondi , Giulia Livieri , Sergio Pulido

Motivated by applications in physics (e.g., turbulence intermittency) and financial mathematics (e.g., rough volatility), this paper examines a family of integrated stochastic Volterra processes characterized by a small Hurst parameter…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-28 Mireille Bossy , Kerlyns Martinez , Paul Maurer

The self-exciting Hawkes process is widely used to model events which occur in bursts. However, many real world data sets contain missing events and/or noisily observed event times, which we refer to as data distortion. The presence of such…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-03 Isabella Deutsch , Gordon J. Ross

We propose an effective method to solve the event sequence clustering problems based on a novel Dirichlet mixture model of a special but significant type of point processes --- Hawkes process. In this model, each event sequence belonging to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-09-22 Hongteng Xu , Hongyuan Zha

We prove exponential moments for linear combinations of the number of individuals of each type of a whole multitype Poissonian Galton Watson process. We give sharp estimates for such quantities, which depend on the expectation of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-14 Théo Leblanc

The Hawkes self-excited point process provides an efficient representation of the bursty intermittent dynamics of many physical, biological, geological and economic systems. By expressing the probability for the next event per unit time…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-09-23 Kiyoshi Kanazawa , Didier Sornette

Hawkes processes are often applied to model dependence and interaction phenomena in multivariate event data sets, such as neuronal spike trains, social interactions, and financial transactions. In the nonparametric setting, learning the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-09-04 Deborah Sulem , Vincent Rivoirard , Judith Rousseau

Parameter estimation for discretely observed Markov processes is a challenging problem. However, simulation of Markov processes is straightforward using the Gillespie algorithm. We exploit this ease of simulation to develop an effective…

Computation · Statistics 2014-04-17 Peter Neal

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in finance, insurance, neuroscience,…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-28 Xuefeng Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

Hawkes Processes capture self-excitation and mutual-excitation between events when the arrival of an event makes future events more likely to happen. Identification of such temporal covariance can reveal the underlying structure to better…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-03 Rafael Lima , Jaesik Choi

The Hawkes model is suitable for describing self and mutually exciting random events. In addition, the exponential decay in the Hawkes process allows us to calculate the moment properties in the model. However, due to the complexity of the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-24 Kyungsub Lee

On the base of a Feynman-Kac--type formula involving Poisson stochastic processes, recently a Monte Carlo algorithm has been introduced, which describes exactly the real- or imaginary-time evolution of many-body lattice quantum systems. We…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2011-07-19 Massimo Ostilli , Carlo Presilla

Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are an important class of temporal point processes that have enabled key advances in understanding and predicting social information systems. However, due to their complex modeling of temporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-02 Maximilian Nickel , Matthew Le

We study Euler-type discrete-time schemes for the rough Heston model, which can be described by a stochastic Volterra equation (with non-Lipschtiz coefficient functions), or by an equivalent integrated variance formulation. Using weak…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-03-08 Alexandre Richard , Xiaolu Tan , Fan Yang

In this paper we fill a gap in the literature by providing exact and explicit expressions for the correlation of general Hawkes processes together with its intensity process. Our methodology relies on the Poisson imbedding representation…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-06 Caroline Hillairet , Anthony Reveillac

We introduce and establish the main properties of QHawkes ("Quadratic" Hawkes) models. QHawkes models generalize the Hawkes price models introduced in E. Bacry et al. (2014), by allowing all feedback effects in the jump intensity that are…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2015-09-28 Pierre Blanc , Jonathan Donier , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

Targeting a better understanding of credit market dynamics, the authors have studied a stochastic model named the Hawkes process. Describing trades arrival times, this kind of model allows for the capture of self-excitement and mutual…

Applications · Statistics 2019-02-12 Achraf Bahamou , Maud Doumergue , Philippe Donnat