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We study the effect of social distancing, food vulnerability, welfare and labour COVID-19 policy responses on riots, violence against civilians and food-related conflicts. Our analysis uses georeferenced data for 24 African countries with…
The Himalayan region, including Nepal, is prone to frequent and large earthquakes. Accurate forecasting of these earthquakes is crucial for minimizing loss of life and damage to infrastructure. In this study, we propose various time-scaled…
Spatio-temporal hierarchical modeling is an extremely attractive way to model the spread of crime or terrorism data over a given region, especially when the observations are counts and must be modeled discretely. The spatio-temporal…
The integration of longitudinal measurements and survival time in statistical modeling offers a powerful framework for capturing the interplay between these two essential outcomes, particularly when they exhibit associations. However, in…
Background: Suicide remains a major public health concern worldwide, responsible for more than 700,000 deaths in 2021, accounting for approximately 1.1\% of all global deaths. While many high-income countries have reported declines in…
As part of nationwide efforts aligned with the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal 3 on Universal Health Coverage, Ethiopia's Ministry of Health is strengthening health posts to expand access to essential healthcare services.…
In this paper we investigate the spatio-temporal dynamics of obesity rates across Italian regions from 2010 to 2022, aiming to identify spatial and temporal trends and assess potential heterogeneities. We implement a Bayesian hierarchical…
The revolution and Civil War in Syria has led to substantial death and suffering, a massive refugee crisis, and growth of ISIS extremism and its terror attacks globally. Conflict between disparate groups is ongoing. Complex ethnic geography…
The aim of this study was to approach a difficult regression task on highly unbalanced data regarding active theater of war in Afghanistan. Our focus was set on predicting the negative events number without distinguishing precise nature of…
Accurate mortality modeling is central to actuarial science and public health, especially as mental health emerges as a significant factor in population outcomes. This paper develops and applies a Bayesian hierarchical model to analyze U.S.…
Self-exciting spatiotemporal Hawkes processes have found increasing use in the study of large-scale public health threats ranging from gun violence and earthquakes to wildfires and viral contagion. Whereas many such applications feature…
Small area estimation using survey data can be achieved by using either a design-based or a model-based inferential approach. Design-based direct estimators are generally preferable because of their consistency, asymptotic normality, and…
The United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 aims to reduce under-5 child mortality to 25 deaths per 1,000 live births by 2030. Child mortality tends to be concentrated in developing regions where much of the information needed to…
The subsequent series of responses to big events may exhibit a synchronicity of event number, frequency and energy release in different fault zones. This synchronicity is a reliable source for probing non-intuitive geological structures,…
We develop flexible multivariate spatio-temporal Hawkes process models to analyze patterns of terrorism. Previous applications of point process methods to political violence data mainly utilize temporal Hawkes process models, neglecting…
We analyze the database prepared by Brecke (Brecke 2011) for violent conflict, covering some 600 years of human history. After normalizing the data for the global human population, we find that the number of casualties tends to follow a…
Armed conflict exhibits regularities beyond known power law distributions of fatalities and duration over varying culture and geography. We systematically cluster conflict reports from a database of $10^5$ events from Africa spanning 20…
Many people living in low- and middle-income countries are not covered by civil registration and vital statistics systems. Consequently, a wide variety of other types of data, including many household sample surveys, are used to estimate…
This paper explores the spatial and temporal diffusion of political violence in North and West Africa. It does so by endeavoring to represent the mental landscape that lives in the back of a group leader's mind as he contemplates strategic…
This article illustrates an approach to forecasting change in conflict fatalities designed to address the complexity of the drivers and processes of armed conflicts. The design of this approach is based on two main choices. First, to…