Related papers: Violent event-related fatality patterns in Ethiopi…
There is significant interest in being able to predict where crimes will happen, for example to aid in the efficient tasking of police and other protective measures. We aim to model both the temporal and spatial dependencies often exhibited…
Human flourishing is often severely limited by persistent violence. Quantitative conflict research has found common temporal and other statistical patterns in warfare, but very little is understood about its general spatial patterns. While…
Principled decision making in emergency response management necessitates the use of statistical models that predict the spatial-temporal likelihood of incident occurrence. These statistical models are then used for proactive stationing…
In this study, we address the challenge of modelling the spatial variability in violence against women across municipalities in a Southern Italian region by proposing a Bayesian spatio-temporal Poisson regression model. Using data on access…
Estimating the number of migrants who die or go missing along dangerous routes such as the Central Mediterranean remains challenging as available records are incomplete. Some incidents are never documented, and fatalities associated with…
The Tigray War was an armed conflict that took place primarily in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia from November 3, 2020 to November 2, 2022. Given the importance of agriculture in Tigray to livelihoods and food security, determining…
Malaria remains a major public health concern in Ethiopia, particularly in the Amhara Region, where seasonal and unpredictable transmission patterns make prevention and control challenging. Accurately forecasting malaria outbreaks is…
Acts of political violence in the continental United States have increased dramatically in the last decade. For this rise in political violence, we are interested in where and when such incidents occur: how are the locations and times of…
In this preliminary study, we used the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) database to examine xenophobic events reported in the media during 2022. We collected a dataset of 2,778 unique events and created a choropleth map…
With the aim to contribute to humanitarian response to disasters and violent events, scientists have proposed the development of analytical tools that could identify emergency events in real-time, using mobile phone data. The assumption is…
This study presents a novel approach to assessing food security risks at the national level, employing a probabilistic scenario-based framework that integrates both Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) and Representative Concentration…
Event datasets including those provided by Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) are based on reports from the media and international organizations, and are likely to suffer from reporting bias. Since the UCDP has strict inclusion criteria,…
Violence is commonly linked with large urban areas, and as a social phenomenon, it is presumed to scale super-linearly with population size. This study explores the hypothesis that smaller, isolated cities in Africa may experience a…
Background: Opioid misuse is a major public health issue in the United States and in particular Ohio. However, the burden of the epidemic is challenging to quantify as public health surveillance measures capture different aspects of the…
Event Studies (ES) are statistical tools that assess whether a particular event of interest has caused changes in the level of one or more relevant time series. We are interested in ES applied to multivariate time series characterized by…
Use of healthcare services is inadequate in Ethiopia in spite of the high burden of diseases. User-fee charges are the most important factor for this deficiency in healthcare utilization. Hence, the country is introducing community based…
Predictive policing systems that allocate patrol resources based solely on predicted crime risk can unintentionally amplify racial disparities through feedback driven data bias. We present FASE, a Fairness Aware Spatiotemporal Event Graph…
One in three women globally experiences intimate partner violence (IPV), yet little is known about how such trauma affects economic decision-making. We provide causal evidence that IPV influences women's time preferences - a key parameter…
This article examines the structure and spatial patterns of violent political organizations in the Sahel-Sahara, a region characterized by growing political instability over the last 20 years. Drawing on a public collection of disaggregated…
Extreme weather events are projected to intensify global migration, increase resource competition, and amplify socio-spatial phenomena, including intergroup conflicts, socioeconomic inequalities, and unplanned displacements, among others.…