Related papers: Violent event-related fatality patterns in Ethiopi…
This study presents a spatiotemporal dual Bayesian model that examines both the occurrence and number of conflict fatalities using event-level data from Ethiopia (1997-2024), sourced from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED)…
Extreme events with potential deadly outcomes, such as those organized by terror groups, are highly unpredictable in nature and an imminent threat to society. In particular, quantifying the likelihood of a terror attack occurring in an…
We investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics of traffic accidents in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, using 2016--2019 data. We formulate the traffic accident intensity as a log-Gaussian Cox Process and model it as a spatiotemporal point process with…
Existing models of political violence often emphasize discrete transitions, when conflicts emerge, escalate, or subside, without considering the longer trajectories of violence that accumulate across time and space. This paper introduces a…
Afghanistan has witnessed many armed conflicts throughout history, especially in the past 20 years; these events have had a significant impact on human lives, including military and civilians, with potential fatalities. In this research, we…
The monitoring of conflict risk in the humanitarian sector is largely based on simple historic averages. The overarching goal of this work is to assess the potential for using a more statistically rigorous approach to monitor the risk of…
Over the past few decades, crime and delinquency rates have increased drastically in many countries; nevertheless, it is important to note that crime trends can differ significantly by geographic region. This study's primary goal was to use…
The complexity of armed conflicts is expressed in the number of fatalities that may span several orders of magnitude. This study presents a minimalist, physics-informed approach to estimating the likelihood of extreme conflict fatalities at…
Transport systems are vulnerable to disruption. This is particularly true in Africa, where there are large areas with few highways and heightened risk of violence. Here we attempt to estimate the costs of violent events on African transport…
We present statistical techniques for analyzing global positioning system (GPS) data in order to understand, communicate about, and prevent patterns of violence. In this pilot study, participants in Nairobi, Kenya were asked to rate their…
The increasing life expectancy enhances the importance of mortality forecasting. Most developing nations, including Tanzania, forecast mortality rates using static life tables. However, these tables exaggerate death probabilities by…
To this day, terrorism persists as a worldwide threat, as exemplified by the ongoing lethal attacks perpetrated by ISIS in Iraq, Syria, Al Qaeda in Yemen, and Boko Haram in Nigeria. In response, states deploy various counterterrorism…
Understanding traffic collision patterns is of high importance for effective road safety planning in fast-growing urban environments. This study examines the temporal and spatial patterns of traffic collisions in Dubai, UAE, with a…
Tuberculosis (TB) continues to pose a major public health challenge, particularly in high-burden regions such as Ethiopia, necessitating a more profound understanding of its transmission dynamics. In this study, we developed an SVEITRS…
In this study, we introduce a novel and comprehensive extension of a Bayesian spatio-temporal disease mapping model that explicitly accounts for gender-specific effects of meteorological exposures. Leveraging fine-scale weekly mortality and…
Conflict fatalities tend to follow heavy-tailed statistical distributions. A 2005 fusion-fission theory predicts mathematically that for armed groups operating in dynamically evolving clusters within a given conflict, the number of…
Accurate estimates of the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) in a developing world context are a key barometer of the health of a nation. This paper describes new models to analyze survey data on mortality in this context. We are interested in…
Child mortality is an important population health indicator. However, many countries lack high-quality vital registration to measure child mortality rates precisely and reliably over time. Research endeavors such as those by the United…
Many causal processes have spatial and temporal dimensions. Yet the classic causal inference framework is not directly applicable when the treatment and outcome variables are generated by spatio-temporal point processes. We extend the…
Road traffic injury accounts for a substantial human and economic burden globally. Understanding risk factors contributing to fatal injuries is of paramount importance. In this study, we proposed a model that adopts a hybrid ensemble…