Related papers: Beyond MSE: Ordinal Cross-Entropy for Probabilisti…

We propose "collision cross-entropy" as a robust alternative to Shannon's cross-entropy (CE) loss when class labels are represented by soft categorical distributions y. In general, soft labels can naturally represent ambiguous targets in…

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs), via their induced flow maps, provide a powerful framework to parameterize invertible transformations for the purpose of representing complex probability distributions. While such models have achieved…

Deep learning-based tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting methods have demonstrated significant potential and application advantages, as they feature much lower computational cost and faster operation speed than numerical weather prediction…

In virtual assistant (VA) systems it is important to reject or redirect user queries that fall outside the scope of the system. One of the most accurate approaches for out-of-scope (OOS) rejection is to combine it with the task of intent…

Tropical cyclones (TCs) rank among the most costly natural disasters in the United States, and accurate forecasts of track and intensity are critical for emergency response. Intensity guidance has improved steadily but slowly, as processes…

This paper proposes a way to combine the Mesh Adaptive Direct Search (MADS) algorithm with the Cross-Entropy (CE) method for non smooth constrained optimization. The CE method is used as a Search step by the MADS algorithm. The result of…

Probabilistic values, including Shapley values and semivalues, provide a model-agnostic framework to attribute the behavior of a black-box model to data points or features, with a wide range of applications including explainable artificial…

One common loss function in neural network classification tasks is Categorical Cross Entropy (CCE), which punishes all misclassifications equally. However, classes often have an inherent structure. For instance, classifying an image of a…

Uncertainty quantification has received considerable interest in recent works in Machine Learning. In particular, Conformal Prediction (CP) gains ground in this field. For the case of time series, Online Conformal Prediction (OCP) becomes…

Conditional density estimation (CDE) models can be useful for many statistical applications, especially because the full conditional density is estimated instead of traditional regression point estimates, revealing more information about…

Motivated by the increasing risks of data misuse and fabrication, we investigate the problem of identifying synthetic time series generated by Time-Series Large Models (TSLMs) in this work. While there are extensive researches on detecting…

A novel probabilistic numerical method for quantifying the uncertainty induced by the time integration of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is introduced. Departing from the classical strategy to randomize ODE solvers by adding a…

Musical onset detection can be formulated as a time-to-event (TTE) or time-since-event (TSE) prediction task by defining music as a sequence of onset events. Here we propose a novel method to model the probability of onsets by introducing a…

Prediction based on Irregularly Sampled Time Series (ISTS) is of wide concern in the real-world applications. For more accurate prediction, the methods had better grasp more data characteristics. Different from ordinary time series, ISTS is…

Short-term (0-24 hours) precipitation forecasting is highly valuable to socioeconomic activities and public safety. However, the highly complex evolution patterns of precipitation events, the extreme imbalance between precipitation and…

The cross-entropy method (CE) developed by R. Rubinstein is an elegant practical principle for simulating rare events. The method approximates the probability of the rare event by means of a family of probabilistic models. The method has…

Recent advancements in learning algorithms have demonstrated that the sharpness of the loss surface is an effective measure for improving the generalization gap. Building upon this concept, Sharpness-Aware Minimization (SAM) was proposed to…

Time series forecasting is an important and forefront task in many real-world applications. However, most of time series forecasting techniques assume that the training data is clean without anomalies. This assumption is unrealistic since…

Sequential recommendations (SR) with transformer-based architectures are widely adopted in real-world applications, where SR models require frequent retraining to adapt to ever-changing user preferences. However, training transformer-based…

We introduce OFTER, a time series forecasting pipeline tailored for mid-sized multivariate time series. OFTER utilizes the non-parametric models of k-nearest neighbors and Generalized Regression Neural Networks, integrated with a…