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Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) and the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) are methods for estimating pointwise out-of-sample prediction accuracy from a fitted Bayesian model using the log-likelihood evaluated at the…

Computation · Statistics 2017-12-18 Aki Vehtari , Andrew Gelman , Jonah Gabry

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a class of sample-efficient global optimization methods, where a probabilistic model conditioned on previous observations is used to determine future evaluations via the optimization of an acquisition function.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-22 Eric Hans Lee , David Eriksson , Bolong Cheng , Michael McCourt , David Bindel

The statistical analysis of measurement data has become a key component of many quantum engineering experiments. As standard full state tomography becomes unfeasible for large dimensional quantum systems, one needs to exploit prior…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2012-11-27 Madalin Guta , Theodore Kypraios , Ian Dryden

We investigate methods for parameter learning from incomplete data that is not missing at random. Likelihood-based methods then require the optimization of a profile likelihood that takes all possible missingness mechanisms into account.…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-02 Manfred Jaeger

To evaluate the calibration of a disease risk prediction tool, the quantity $E/O$, i.e., the ratio of the expected number of events to the observed number of events, is generally computed. However, because of censoring, or more precisely…

Applications · Statistics 2007-10-30 V. Viallon , J. Benichou , F. Clavel-Chapelon , S. Ragusa

Multi-objective optimization (MOO) aims at finding a set of optimal configurations for a given set of objectives. A recent line of work applies MOO methods to the typical Machine Learning (ML) setting, which becomes multi-objective if a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-15 Michael Ruchte , Josif Grabocka

Leveraging the models' outputs, specifically the logits, is a common approach to estimating the test accuracy of a pre-trained neural network on out-of-distribution (OOD) samples without requiring access to the corresponding ground truth…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-26 Renchunzi Xie , Ambroise Odonnat , Vasilii Feofanov , Weijian Deng , Jianfeng Zhang , Bo An

We consider predictive checking for Bayesian model assessment using leave-one-out probability integral transform (LOO-PIT). LOO-PIT values are conditional cumulative predictive probabilities given LOO predictive distributions and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-14 Herman Tesso , Aki Vehtari

Inverse optimization (IO) aims to determine optimization model parameters from observed decisions. However, IO is not part of a data scientist's toolkit in practice, especially as many general-purpose machine learning packages are widely…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-02-23 Elaheh H. Iraj , Daria Terekhov

Nonparametric and machine learning methods are flexible methods for obtaining accurate predictions. Nowadays, data sets with a large number of predictors and complex structures are fairly common. In the presence of item nonresponse,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-23 Mehdi Dagdoug , Camelia Goga , David Haziza

As models continue to grow in size, the development of memory optimization methods (MOMs) has emerged as a solution to address the memory bottleneck encountered when training large models. To comprehensively examine the practical value of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-06 Xiaoxuan Liu , Siddharth Jha , Alvin Cheung

Multiple imputation provides us with efficient estimators in model-based methods for handling missing data under the true model. It is also well-understood that design-based estimators are robust methods that do not require accurately…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-11 Kyunghee Han , Pamela A. Shaw , Thomas Lumley

Abstaining classifiers have been widely used in cost-sensitive applications to avoid ambiguous classification and reduce the cost of misclassification. Previous abstaining classification models rely on cost information, such as a cost…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-20 Hongjiao Guan

Recently, new methods for model assessment, based on subsampling and posterior approximations, have been proposed for scaling leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) to large datasets. Although these methods work well for estimating predictive…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-12 Måns Magnusson , Michael Riis Andersen , Johan Jonasson , Aki Vehtari

There are a lot of real-world black-box optimization problems that need to optimize multiple criteria simultaneously. However, in a multi-objective optimization (MOO) problem, identifying the whole Pareto front requires the prohibitive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-23 Ryota Ozaki , Kazuki Ishikawa , Youhei Kanzaki , Shinya Suzuki , Shion Takeno , Ichiro Takeuchi , Masayuki Karasuyama

Predictive models are often introduced to decision-making tasks under the rationale that they improve performance over an existing decision-making policy. However, it is challenging to compare predictive performance against an existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-13 Luke Guerdan , Amanda Coston , Kenneth Holstein , Zhiwei Steven Wu

Structural missingness breaks 'just impute and train': values can be undefined by causal or logical constraints, and the mask may depend on observed variables, unobserved variables (MNAR), and other missingness indicators. It simultaneously…

Pre-trained machine learning (ML) predictions have been increasingly used to complement incomplete data to enable downstream scientific inquiries, but their naive integration risks biased inferences. Recently, multiple methods have been…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-12 Xingran Chen , Tyler McCormick , Bhramar Mukherjee , Zhenke Wu

This paper compares three approaches to the problem of selecting among probability models to fit data (1) use of statistical criteria such as Akaike's information criterion and Schwarz's "Bayesian information criterion," (2) maximization of…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-04 William B. Poland , Ross D. Shachter

In computational mechanics, multiple models are often present to describe a physical system. While Bayesian model selection is a helpful tool to compare these models using measurement data, it requires the computationally expensive…

Computation · Statistics 2025-04-14 Subhayan De , Reza Farzad , Patrick T. Brewick , Erik A. Johnson , Steven F. Wojtkiewicz