Related papers: Detection of Temporal Variability in U.S. Climate …
District Heating Systems are essential infrastructure for delivering heat to consumers across a geographic region sustainably, yet efficient management relies on optimizing diverse energy sources, such as wood, gas, electricity, and solar,…
We present a new approach to forecasting North Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) by recognizing that interannual variability primarily reflects amplitude changes in four dominant seasonal cycles. Our multivariate linear model…
A key challenge for computationally intensive state-of-the-art Earth System models is to distinguish global warming signals from interannual variability. Here we introduce DLESyM, a parsimonious deep learning model that accurately simulates…
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of atmospheric variability over the North Atlantic sector, influencing temperature and precipitation across Europe. While the NAO's impact on North Atlantic sea surface temperatures…
We investigate whether or not the decadal and multi-decadal climate oscillations have an astronomical origin. Several global surface temperature records since 1850 and records deduced from the orbits of the planets present very similar…
The sunspot record since 1749 is made of three major cycles (9.98, 10.9 and 11.86 yr). The side frequencies are related to the spring tidal period of Jupiter and Saturn (9.93 yr) and to the tidal sidereal period of Jupiter (11.86 yr). A…
Using observational data and an elementary rigorous statistical fact it is easily shown that the distribution of Earth's climate is non-stationary. Examination of records of hundreds of local Industrial Era temperature histories in the…
In the analysis of empirical signals, detecting correlations that capture genuine interactions between the elements of a complex system is a challenging task with applications across disciplines. Here we analyze a global data set of surface…
We examine how coupling functions in the theory of dynamical systems provide a quantitative window into climate dynamics. Previously we have shown that a one-dimensional periodic non-autonomous stochastic dynamical system can simulate the…
The changes in brightness of an astronomical source as a function of time are key probes into that source's physics. Periodic and quasi-periodic signals are indicators of fundamental time (and length) scales in the system, while stochastic…
Understanding the dynamics of the land-atmosphere exchange of CO$_2$ is key to advance our predictive capacities of the coupled climate-carbon feedback system. In essence, the net vegetation flux is the difference of the uptake of CO$_2$…
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) monthly index is studied from 1825 till 2002 in order to identify the scaling ranges of its fluctuations upon different delay times and to find out whether or not it can be regarded as a Markov process.…
Tropical cyclones (TCs), driven by heat exchange between the air and sea, pose a substantial risk to many communities around the world. Accurate characterization of the subsurface ocean thermal response to TC passage is crucial for accurate…
Considering the interdependencies between water and electricity use is critical for ensuring conservation measures are successful in lowering the net water and electricity use in a city. This water-electricity demand nexus will become even…
A functional time series approach is proposed for investigating spatial correlation in daily maximum temperature forecast errors for 111 cities spread across the U.S. The modelling of spatial correlation is most fruitful for longer forecast…
Climate models robustly imply that some significant change in precipitation patterns will occur. Models consistently project that the intensity of individual precipitation events increases by approximately 6-7%/K, following the increase in…
Due to the emergence of new high resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and the availability of new or more reliable remote sensing data, the importance of efficient spatial verification techniques is growing. Wavelet…
One of the main challenges in identifying structural changes in stochastic processes is to carry out analysis for time series with dependency structure in a computationally tractable way. Another challenge is that the number of true change…
Anomalies during an El Nino are dominated by a single, irregularly oscillating, mode. Equatorial dynamics has been linked to delayed-oscillator models of this mode. Usually, the El Nino mode is regarded as an unstable mode of the coupled…
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, a measure of sea-level atmospheric pressure variability, holds significant influence over weather patterns in North America and Northern Europe. A negative (positive) NAO value signifies increased…